Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

When this is all over somebody should list who was right and who was wrong, how many times, and each side explain how and/or why.

That would be interesting!

Pretty much. It's getting people off the couches though, which I count as a plus.

The more people you get involved the better democracy works.

It is both the dark cloud and the silver lining of the Citizens United decision.

Unfortunately, Our Corporate Overloards™ have more money than we do...but fortunately some Corporate Overlords™ side with us on some things...

Quite a lot of them in fact...abortions are WAY cheaper than pregnancies. And religious people think they should get Sunday off.

Does Corporate America want a fascist, single-party, repressive austere Handmaid's Tale society?

If they do they'll get it. Because they wield the Golden Sword that cuts all things before it.

But I don't think they do. I think they like this active spend-thrifty 24/7 business model they've got running right now. It has made them insanely rich.

I think Nate Silver of 538 fame is seeing something I’m not or I’m just slow to climb aboard. He had the GOP at a 29% chance of winning control of the senate in September, today he has upped the Republican chances to 43%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

I see it as a no worse than a 50-50 tie or the Dems gain a Senate seat. On the House, Republicans regaining control was at 68% on 4 October, that’s up to 80% today. I’ve always had the GOP retaking the House, so Nate is just confirming it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/

It seems Nate thinks the momentum shift which occurred at the beginning of the month is stronger than I think or thought. Still, we both agree that the only states that will flip is PA and NV causing the senate to remain 50-50. That result would still leave the senate in Democratic control. Good for any Biden’s nominees to be confirmed.

It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. Even Nate was wrong in 2016.

It won't be over even after the fat lady sings. It's only the beginning of a new congressional term.

Then we can turn our eyes and forecasts to the next election. Which, will also be the most important election of our lives just like every election before it.


It's a hedge...Reeps likely won't take control of the Senate, thus it's still well under 50%, but the recent surge in Reep's favorability has forced his models into a tailspin so he needed to adjust his numbers. It's a close race that will most likely end in a tie...it's not 50/50 but it's close...and there's not much wiggle room...only 30 Senators up for reelection, all 435ish house seats are up for grabs... a lot more room for surprises there, In both directions.

I think what Nate’s numbers show that the momentum was with the Republicans from January until the second week of August. In the second week of August the momentum switched toward the Democrats. Then at the end of September, momentum shifted back to the Republicans. Which with Oz narrowing the Fetterman gap in PA and Laxalt taking a slim lead over Cortez Masto in NV shows over the change in momentum over the last 3 weeks. I’d say looking at the numbers today, those 2 states NV and PA are the only ones who might switch parties from the party that now holds them. Although there’s plenty of time for that to change and throw egg all over my face.

I’ve also noticed that despite the numbers in the generic congressional ballot going from a Democratic lead of 1.3 points on 19 Sep to a Republican lead today of 3.0 points. The number of seats forecasted for a GOP pickup has remained in the 11-13 range depending on the prognosticator, safe seats relatively unchanged either. But if Nate has the momentum factor correct, the polls will follow and those number will change. I’ve said all along the retirements and Democratic house member seeking high office, 36 of them, left several golden opportunities for the Republicans. The GOP had just 16 house members who decided not to seek reelection. Open seats are much easier to flip, switch than is beating an incumbent. I do expect that 11-13 seats gain for the GOP today will rise some between now and election day. Not by much, maybe 5-7 seats.

Ouch! I'm gonna stay with 15 because it's as good a number as any, margin of error makes it 13-17

Nate's models are impeccable. Not 100% accurate but as educated guesses go, his is probably the best.

It's beginning to look like any "surprises" we're gonna see in this election will be happy for the Reeps, not the Dems.

It seems so. A month ago, It looked like an easy win for Fetterman in PA, Barnes winning in WI, NC was in doubt, Warnock had a decent lead in GA along with Kelly in AZ, Cortez Masto in NV. Not today. Even with all this new stuff coming out daily on Walker here in GA, according to the latest Landmark Communication poll, Walker is tied with Warnock. I hate it when I can’t see the poll itself along with the party/independent breakdown.

https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/20...s-us-senate-race-tied-new-landmark-poll/

I expect Warnock to win, he still has the lead in the RCP averages. Landmark is just one poll. Interesting RCP is predicting a Runoff as Libertarian Chase Oliver takes enough votes away from both preventing either one reaching the mandatory 50% plus 1 vote.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html

Here’s how Nate Silver sees it.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/georgia/

Not much drama here in Floriduh. I'd be surprised if anyone I vote for wins.

But I saw that coming months ago, not much need to chase after polls or the latest headlines.

Warnock might lose in a runoff...that'd be sad.

History here in Georgia has showed the voters for the Libertarian usually go to the Republican in a runoff election. That didn’t happen in the Jan 2021 runoff where Ossoff and Warnock won. Apparently many Libertarians and some Republicans stayed home. Thanks to Trump’s “Your vote won’t count,” campaign after he lost Georgia in Nov 2020. I don’t think that’ll happen this year. Although one can never be sure. The GOP is up to shenanigans with keep your mail in ballot until election day and drop it off at the polling place then. Susposedly to prevent fraud.

GOP voters told to hold onto mail ballots until Election Day

https://news.yahoo.com/gop-voters-told-hold-onto-043251463.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

Although I don’t agree with everything here, Politico does a better job of explaining the senate races than I ever could.

Republicans gain steam in Senate battle

https://www.yahoo.com/news/republicans-gain-steam-senate-battle-110000629.html