I think what Nate’s numbers show that the momentum was with the Republicans from January until the second week of August. In the second week of August the momentum switched toward the Democrats. Then at the end of September, momentum shifted back to the Republicans. Which with Oz narrowing the Fetterman gap in PA and Laxalt taking a slim lead over Cortez Masto in NV shows over the change in momentum over the last 3 weeks. I’d say looking at the numbers today, those 2 states NV and PA are the only ones who might switch parties from the party that now holds them. Although there’s plenty of time for that to change and throw egg all over my face.

I’ve also noticed that despite the numbers in the generic congressional ballot going from a Democratic lead of 1.3 points on 19 Sep to a Republican lead today of 3.0 points. The number of seats forecasted for a GOP pickup has remained in the 11-13 range depending on the prognosticator, safe seats relatively unchanged either. But if Nate has the momentum factor correct, the polls will follow and those number will change. I’ve said all along the retirements and Democratic house member seeking high office, 36 of them, left several golden opportunities for the Republicans. The GOP had just 16 house members who decided not to seek reelection. Open seats are much easier to flip, switch than is beating an incumbent. I do expect that 11-13 seats gain for the GOP today will rise some between now and election day. Not by much, maybe 5-7 seats.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.