Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

This is interesting, from this article.

Trump Tells Team He Needs to Be President Again to Save Himself from Criminal Probes

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-2024-criminal-probes-jan6-1384379/

“The former president is motivated to announce early — even before Election Day 2022 — in the hopes of clearing the field of primary rivals. But GOP leaders, including some of Trump’s closest advisors, don’t want him to declare his intentions until after the midterm elections. The GOP wants to keep voters focused on President Joe Biden, rather than transforming the contest into a referendum on Trump.”

My thoughts, the leaked SCOTUS draft didn’t move the needle for the upcoming midterms, the mass shootings in Buffalo and Texas didn’t either, the SCOTUS overturning ROE hasn’t. The needle is within a point of exactly where it was prior to the above happening. Now if Trump announced early, before the midterms, as feared by Republican leaders, instead of this election being about inflation and Biden, it could, I repeat, could turn into one about Trump. If that were to happen, the chances of retaining the House would improve and picking up 3 or so seats in the senate seems likely. Independents still don’t like Trump and their hesitancy to vote for Trump back candidates, Republicans in general is limiting the damage to the Democrats of having a president with a very low 38% approval rating.

I think a Trump announcement that he’s running for president again prior to the midterms could do something that the leaked draft, the mass shootings, the overturning of ROE couldn’t. I stated abortion was baked into the equation. Maybe Trump is too when it comes to independents. Announcing his candidacy prior to the midterms would be a way of placing Trump on the ballot. Independents don’t like him and would move some to vote Democratic instead of Republican. Would Trump’s announcement be enough to give the Democratic House candidates that 3-5 extra points needed to win in those competitive, at risk, swing and switchable districts? It just might. At a minimum cut an expected 18-20 seat loss down to 10 or perhaps under. It would be most interesting.

Holy crap! Trump could do us one last favor before he goes! See, Pero, you aren't just a numbers guy, this is some pretty devious political strategy and snaps into my models perfectly.

And I'll bet he can't resist doing it. He's feeling pressure from the committee, from Ron DeSantis and from events he can't control. Fewer checks are rolling in as his star fades...

He'll do what he always does and shoot off his mouth, maybe at his next rally.

This could make things interesting again.

The thing is this hasn’t happened yet, although Trump has been talking about announcing for months. Announcing his candidacy means nothing as to New York, Georgia or the DOJ. Trump probably knows his hold is slipping among Republicans. Many now want him to go away. They don’t want to fight 2020 election this midterm. They want to keep this election about Biden and inflation, high gas and food prices. A Trump announcement would change that, making Trump the spotlight, making this election about Trump and not Biden. Here’s some scenarios.

1. Trump is indicted prior to the midterms, by who doesn’t matter which peeves off Republicans who show up in huge numbers in November. An indictment might also relieve some of the hesitancy independents now have for voting Trump backed candidates and the Republicans in general. This could happen if Trump ceases to be a threat to regain the presidency which an indictment and a trial would do.

2. Nothing happens, Trump doesn’t announce, and he isn’t indicted which would maintain the status quo of the Republicans picking up about half the seats in the house that they should due to independents hesitancy and shall I say the fear of a Trump return. One should remember with a president whose approval is 39% or there about, a red wave of 40 or more seats should be in the works.

3. Trump announces, he becomes the main attraction, not Biden and perhaps not inflation. This enforces the hesitancy for independents, some switch from voting GOP to voting Democratic. The fact is a majority of independents don’t like Trump and don’t want him to return to office.

Election wise, 1 would help the Republicans in the midterms. Turn the anticipated 18-20 seat gain into maybe 30 and perhaps a gain of 1 or 2 seats in the senate. If nothing happens, 2, we basically stay where we’re at now. A 18-20 seat loss in the house for the Dems, a gain of 1 seat in the senate. 3 would be a big help to the Democrats. Probably giving the Dems a 1-2 seat pick up in the senate, perhaps 3 and cut their losses in the house to 10 and maybe even under. This is how I see it, my best SWAG.

Privately, many Republicans are hoping Trump does get indicted, charge and sent to trial. They know he is hurting their election chances this November in more ways than one. But they won’t say so out of fear of losing the support of Trump’s followers. They’re cowed.

And yet they want everyone to believe they're all badass patriots.
Patriotism consists of standing by your country, not sucking up to a politician.

And 1 is the outcome Democrats are pushing for.

Trump is going to be indicted. Probably before the midterms.

Trump is going to announce. Probably before the midterms

They cancel each other out. No change in the forecast.

Jeffery, everybody is a patriot. You don't have to be a Democrat to be a patriot.


They need every one of those stupid Trumpy votes to stay in office. They don't like it either but there's no way around it. DeSantis has won those voters over on his own terms and bucked Trump at the same time. If Trump actually runs DeSantis will primary him and win.

Greger, having both happen is something I didn’t think of. I doubt the indictment here in Georgia will come anytime soon. There’re still the special grand jury waiting to hear witnesses. Once they finish, if the evidence shows charges should be brought, then a regular grand jury will have to be impaneled. We’re probably post Midterms here. New York, I don’t know anything about. Then there’s Garland, the DOJ. I would wager he’s weighing all sorts of political ramifications of an indictment along with its timing. You can be certain there would be very loud and numerous howls if Garland indicts Trump prior to the election of the Democratic AG trying to influence the outcome of the midterms.

After the midterms would be the safer bet, howls of partisan politics would rise for sure, but not trying to influence the election. That’s up to Garland to weigh and decide.

Self-preservation is always rule number one for our elected officials regardless of party. Yes, this is precisely why most elected Republicans or those who want to run for office are keeping quiet about Trump. Most of them will need all the Trump supporters they can get along with independents depending on the state and district.

One thing is for sure, this isn’t your normal midterm election. It’s unique, the likes which has never happened before. Not with a president with as low job approval as Biden which is still below 40%. Here’s some history.
Trump was at 41% approval in July 2018, he lost 44 house seats in November
Obama was at 45% approval in July 2010, he lost 63 house seats in November
Bush was at 39% approval in July 2006, He lost 33 house seats in November.
Bill Clinton was at 42% approval in July 1994, he lost 54 house seats in November

And here’s Biden with his 39% approval projected to lose 18-20 seats. But there a half dozen factors present this year that weren’t in the 4 presidents listed above. Very interesting indeed.

I'm counting on Garland to strike while the iron is hot.

Every registered Democrat in America is screaming for it. Trump certainly deserves it, and DOJ probably already knows everything it needs to know to indict.

J6 Committee revelations are softening up the public for the eventual indictment and lot of rank and file centrist Reeps are turning away from him.

This is Trump's last chance to boost fundraising and to rouse the rabble in his favor before his leaky ship sinks.

You think he's gonna miss it for the good of his Party? I don't.

Don't forget that Trump started his 2020 campaign in 2017 (more than a year after he started his election fraud campaign).

Garland will do whatever Garland is going to do. He’ll probably make Democrats happy. If Garland does indict Trump, there may be a sigh of relief among independents thinking they’ve heard the last of Trump. But wait, here comes the trial, independents get saturated with more and more Trump as the trial continues, exactly what they didn’t want. The two words independents, in fact most Americans didn’t want to hear in 2022, COVID and Trump. How this plays out among independents is anyone’s guess.

Will independents be happy that soon Trump will be a word they may never hear again after the trial? Or will they be mad as all get out for the indictment and trial putting Trump’s face and name in front of them 24/7? If this happens prior to the midterms, one or the other, happy or mad may have a significant bearing on how independents vote.

The fact is most independents don’t understand the fixation Democrats have with Trump. He’s gone, no longer in charge, no longer president, forget about him. Try to solve the inflation problem which is hurting them much more than anything else, more than any other issue, focus on solving inflation and to Hades with Trump and any other issue. Make it possible to put food on the table today, gas in the car to go to work, put a roof over their heads, etc.

If it weren’t for Trump, the GOP would be on their way to a huge red wave. Democrats ought to be thanking Trump every night as he is the main cause for the Democrats having limited losses this midterm. Let me sum this up, Trump is the past, the midterm results are the future and they have repercussions beyond November. What happens to Trump won’t. For me, the midterms are the priority, the future. Trump is way down on my list even if he makes my list, he’s the past. I acknowledge he happened, but my focus is on the future.

Interesting development for independents over the last month or two. Question 131 - Generic Congressional Vote - If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?

On 1 June in the generic congressional ballot, independents were stating they’d vote for the Republican congressional candidates by a 45-38 margin. Leaving 18% undecided.

Today, independents still favor the Republicans by a 35-27 margin. That still an 8-point lead for the Republican congressional candidates. But instead of 18% being unsure or undecided, voting other etc. we now have 38%. That is a huge jump in the undecideds. That is a 10-point drop for the Republicans and an 11-point drop for the Democrats since 1 June in those who plan on voting for their candidates. As to why the huge drop, that would be pure speculation. But speculate I will. Perhaps independents are now sick and tired of all the partisan’s rants and negative personal politics from both sides, they are saying to Hades with voting. They certainly don’t like either major party, only 27% of independents view the Democratic Party favorably, 29% view the GOP favorably. Why vote when the choice is between two candidates or between two parties you don’t want neither one to win? You want both to lose which is impossible in our two-party system. So why help one or the other when you want both as far away from the seat of power of government as possible.

Another tidbit here, 28% of independents are paying a lot of attention to the midterms, 38% just a little and 38% none at all.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/k4maehoie4/econTabReport.pdf