Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Campaign 2020 J6: Putting it all together

According to Democrats that's absolutely true.

According to Republicans, it's absolutely false.

According to independents..."Meh, they both suck."

Assuming the worst, and that the bastards take the Senate too...

I don't think they will have any reason for further insurrectional activities.

If they mind their Ps and Qs they'll also take the presidency in 2024.

And it will be Democrats storming the Capital and claiming the election was stolen.

Maybe they'll be right. And you and I will cheer them on...

And support the insurrectionists.

This is what happens when you turn every regularly scheduled election into a war instead of a meeting of minds and a search for consensus.

Exactly right on independents. Only 6% of independents have a very favorable view of the Democratic Party, 21% somewhat favorable for a total 27% favorable while 35% of independents have a very unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, 18% somewhat unfavorable for a total 53%.

5% of independents have a very favorable view of the Republican Party, 22% somewhat favorable for a total of 27% favorable. 31% of independents view the GOP very unfavorable, 19% somewhat unfavorable for a total 50% unfavorable.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/sp4h6s0adp/econTabReport.pdf

There’s no love there from independents for either party, but that’s why they’re independents. If they liked one or the other party, they’d become a Republican and or a Democrat. When it comes to elections, independents will vote for the party’s candidates they want to lose the least, not win, but to lose the least. This is what our elections and politic have come down to. Voting for the least worse party’s candidates only because you dislike the other party and its candidate a bit more than you dislike the party and its candidates you vote for.

Perhaps this will help.

They won't need to do that. Kamala Harris will just declare Joe Biden the winner, like all the MAGA folks claim Pence could do. Then in 2028, she will declare herself the winner. What's sauce for the goose, is sauce for the gander. Democrats could actually pull that off, because they have the advantage of being competent.

Indeed.

I give short-shrift to the term "independent" voter. These people are partisans like everyone else, but are too cowardly to state openly their political affiliation. I challenge the notion that there are voters who vote for both parties consistently.

You mean those "Schrodinger's" Democrats?
The ones who despise guns and abhor violence, and view insurrections as attacks on democracy?
Those Democrats?

MANDATORY BOTHSIDERISM CHANT:
both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides both sides nam yo ho reng ke kyo

Oh there are indeed independents but from personal experience the real independents don't make a big deal of it.
And in the pre-Trump years there was a tacit acknowledgment that more independents were sorely needed.

What the amateur* pundits and railbirds don't seem to realize yet is just how much of an impact January 6th made on the voting public, and I don't mean in the polls, I mean in the national consciousness.
We have crossed a kind of rubicon where elections cannot be trusted anymore and where the basic concept of the rule of law doesn't carry any weight like it used to.

We are in a kind of pre-Joni Mitchell moment where we really DON'T know what we've got till it's gone.
*(by amateur I simply mean those who are not currently employed by a news media outlet or professional polling organization)

Several politically aware people that I work with are speechless about the J6 subpoena that Trump received.

They had no idea what that meant.

I explained to them that the subpoena mentions Signal 13 times - that Trump, Roger Stone, the Oath Keepers, the Proud Boys, Trump's Secret Service team ALL communicated on J6 via Signal.

They were shocked that AND dismayed that the media hasn't gotten this information out.

The short history of the independent vote, make up your own mind.

2000 independents voted for G.W. Bush 47-46 over Gore, independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 50-47 over Democratic congressional candidates.

2002 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 51-45 over Democratic congressional candidates.

2004 independents voted for Bush by a 49-48 margin over Kerry. Independents voted for Republican congressional candidates by a 50-46 margin over Democratic congressional candidates.

2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans.

2008 independents voted for Obama by a 52-44 margin over McCain. Independents voted 52-45 for Democratic congressional candidates.

2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democrat

2012 independents voted for Romney by a 50-48 margin. Independents voted 50-49 for Republican congressional candidates.

2014 independents voted 54-42 for Republican congressional candidates.

2016 Independents voted for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. In congressional election independents voted Republican 51-47.

2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin.

2020 Independents voted for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party. In Congressional elections independents voted Democratic 49-48.

Of note it that independents voted for the Democrats by a 57-39 margin in 2006, then 4 years later voted for Republicans by a 56-37 margin in 2010. From a plus 18 for the democrats in 2006 to a minus 19 in 2020. A swing of 37 points. Independent ticket splitting in presidential years was small from 2000-2016. But was large in 2020. Independents went for Biden by 13 points, but for Democratic congressional candidates by a single point. A 12-point ticket split between presidential and congressional. That’s a lot of people who voted for Biden, then Republican down ballot.

The switch or ticket splitting doesn’t occur that much in the same election, but the switch from party to party does occur quite often by independents from election to election. It seems independents like divided government. Independents voted for divided government in 1994 Bill Clinton, 2006 G.W. Bush, 2010 Obama and seems will do so again in 2022 Biden.