New Data received.

Perotista’s Senate and House forecast, updated 1 Nov 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes – AZ D Kelly down from +5 to +4, GA D Warnock down from +3 to *0, FL R Rubio up from +5 to +6, NH D Hassan down from +6 to +5, NC R Budd up from +2 to +3, OH R Vance down from +3 to +2, PA D Fetterman down from +4 to +2, WI R Johnson up from +2 to +3

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +4 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
*Georgia Warnock D – Warnock vs. Walker 0 election to runoff R 50, D 49
Florida Rubio R – R Rubio +6 Republican hold R 50 D 49
Nevada Cortez Masto D – R Laxalt +1 Republican gain R 51 - D 48
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +5 Democratic hold R 51 D 48
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +3 Republican hold. R 51 D 48
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +2 Republican hold. R 51 D 48
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman, Fetterman +2 Democratic gain R 50 D 49
Wisconsin Johnson R – R Johnson +3 Republican hold. R 50 D 49

*Georgia R Walker vs. D Warnock will go to a runoff scheduled for 6 Dec as neither candidate will receive the mandatory 50% plus one vote needed to avoid a runoff. Leaving the Republicans with a 50-49 advantage until 7 Dec when the runoff votes are counted in Georgia. If Warnock wins the runoff, we’re back to the 50-50 tie with VP Harris providing the tie breaking vote and giving the Democrats control of the senate. If Walker wins the runoff, the GOP will control the senate 51-49. Democrats pickup PA, Republicans gain NV, GA will be decided in a runoff election.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 65 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 47 Democrats and 18 Republicans. Safe seats, 175 Democratic, 195 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 12-14 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 225-211 to 227-208.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.