Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

It seems as of today, control of the senate boils down to three states. The rest are solidifying to whichever party that holds them now. Those three states are Pennsylvania where D Fetterman’s lead has been cut from 9 points down to 2. Nevada where R Laxalt has taken over the lead from D Cortez Masto who led until the end of September. Laxalt is up by 2 points today. If these holds, PA will be a Democratic gain, NV will be a Republican gain, net result is no change, zero gain for either party.

Which brings me to Georgia with its unique runoff election law which states that if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, a runoff between the top two candidates will take place on 6 Dec. Today R Walker leads D Warnock 47-45 with Libertarian Chase Oliver at 4%. If these numbers hold, there will be another runoff election in Georgia as in January of 2021. Chances are we won’t know who controls the senate until 7 Dec when the runoff votes are counted in Georgia.

All three states are pure tossups, PA, NV and GA. These 3 could go either way. Fetterman’s and Laxalt’s 1- and 2-point leads are well within the margin of error of the polls. That makes them all a tie, a 100% pure tossup.

You type and report polling .... I am worried we are losing our Democracy, if it hasn't already been lost and I just don't realize it yet.

Yesterday a Republican said it out loud .... Republicans will never lose another election. You think there should be a poll for that???

Republicans for weeks will not answer the question whether they will concede elections if they lose. Apparently they believe election boards will ensure they win. Maybe there should be a poll about that???

On and on Republicans are undermining Democratic institutions and there is no polling about it .... o wait a sec .... there is polling but some find it nothing more than partisan whining, so nothing to see.

Here is an example of how polling is irrelevant to reality .... 80% of Republicans view the Capitol insurrectionists as patriots, while 90% of Democrats view them as loathsome criminals ... interpretation of that polling suggests it is nothing more than partisan whining ....

What I report on is the mood of all America, not just one single political party and its members. In fact, usually I ignore both major parties and concentrate on how independents which make up 40% of the electorate are viewing the happenings today, the goings on, how they feel and think about both major parties and the issues at large. Not just from a blue point of view or just from a red point of view. Of course, I realize one or the other party isn’t going to like what I report on or say. That’s life. But I try to be honest with how America as a whole, especially independents are feeling, thinking, their situation and probably will vote.

It's called being informed. Independents for the most have given this threat to democracy a shrug. They’re hurting by rising prices, of gas, of food, of shelter, being able to heat their home this winter, making ends meet today, taking care of their family’s needs. Is that short sighted? Instead of worry about family and putting food on the table, should they be more worried about the threat to democracy which may or may not be true and if true, that is in the future? They have today to worry about and making it through today, keeping their family in food, clothes, taking care of heating, bills, other necessities before they begin to worry about tomorrow. Is that dumb? Apparently not to them, though it may be to you.

Maybe the democrats have been concentrating on things that are only important to their base, that makes their base happy and satisfied, around 30% of the electorate. That has been their message to all voters. But they have ignored what independents deem this nation’s number one, it’s most important problem and by doing so, ignored independents. Do the republican have any solutions or even ideas to combat inflation. Heck no. They’re just the alternative to what is now, today. It’s simple, if one’s life, one’s situation today is worst then one’s life, situation was 2 years ago, you vote for the party out of power in hopes that will change things and make one’s life better. Call it politics 101.

That's exactly Mark Finchem's plan. He's running as (R) SecState of AZ. There are other MAGAts running for office in election offices across the country.

Trump's next coup attempt won't be with tanks, the coup will happen if people like Mark Finchem gets into office that affect elections.

...because they're no better than Trump's MAGAts.

I can understand how you view MAGA. I have no use for them either. But to lump independents with them is asinine. I think your quest for ideological purity to have everyone abide by and accept yours without question is showing. Which is worst or is there a worst? MAGA trying to force their ideology on the rest of us or you and yours trying to force your ideology on the rest of us. Purely rhetorical. You know you just classified 70% of all Americans as being MAGA which isn’t even close to being true. Not every Republican is MAGA either. But don’t let facts get in your way in your quest for ideological purity for all of America.

I have no desire to force an ideology onto anyone. I'm comfortable with the fact that my values align with most decent Americans to do the right thing. I don't ever expect a MAGAt to come around from their fascism.

If others don't want to come along for the ride...that's their choice. It matters not to me. It won't stop me from discussing their poor choice, however.

Interesting that you frame standing up for America and democracy for EVERYONE as ideology purity.

This is the latest based on the numbers, polls available today. One thing to keep in mind is the polls underestimated the Republican vote in 2014,2016, 2018 and in 2020. The question that remains, have the pollsters corrected their problem, possibly now overestimating the Republican vote and underestimating the Democratic. That we won’t know until 9 Nov 2022. The polls are never right on, which is understandable since every poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.

Perotista’s Senate and House forecast, updated 4 Nov 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes – AZ D Kelly down from +4 to +3, FL R Rubio from +6 to safe, taken off watch list, NH D Hassan down from +5 to +4, NC R Budd up from +3 to +4, OH R Vance up from +2 to +3, PA D Fetterman down from +2 to +1, WI R Johnson up from +3 to +4

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +3 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
*Georgia Warnock D – Warnock vs. Walker 0 election to runoff R 50, D 49
Nevada Cortez Masto D – R Laxalt +1 Republican gain R 51 - D 48
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +4 Democratic hold R 51 D 48
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +4 Republican hold. R 51 D 48
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +3 Republican hold. R 51 D 48
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman, Fetterman +1 Democratic gain R 50 D 49
Wisconsin Johnson R – R Johnson +4 Republican hold. R 50 D 49

*Georgia R Walker vs. D Warnock will go to a runoff scheduled for 6 Dec as neither candidate will receive the 50% plus one vote needed to avoid a runoff. Leaving the Republicans with a 50-49 advantage until 7 Dec when the runoff votes are counted in Georgia. If Warnock wins the runoff, we’re back to the 50-50 tie with VP Harris providing the tie breaking vote and giving the Democrats control of the senate. If Walker win the runoff, the GOP will control the senate 51-49. Democrats pickup PA, Republicans gain NV, GA will be decided in the runoff election.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 65 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 47 Democrats and 18 Republicans. Safe seats, 175 Democratic, 195 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 13-15 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 226-210 to 228-207.

HAH! I doubt we will know all of the results by then.
It will take a couple of days to open the mail-ins. Then until the deniers get through their legal courses, it could be weeks I'd imagine.

Well...Republicans usually want all vote counting to stop while they're ahead - whether or not all of the votes are counted. So it could be November 9th.