Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Oprah endorsed Fetterman. Mehmet is too extreme for Oprah.

That is probably as close to any mea culpa as we will ever get from her but it does still speak volumes.
I think Oprah is a good and kind soul but I also think she is easily bamboozled.

Or perhaps that's all in the past, and her actions now speak a different path of growth and personal development.
Maybe the easily charmed Oprah of the Eighties and Nineties has given way to a more skeptical one blessed now with critical thinking.

Georgians keep up record pace of early voting ahead of Election Day

Will Georgia once again keep America from slipping into Rwing fascism as they did in Jan 2021?

An analysis done by Simon Rosenberg shows there appears to be a "ferocious" GOP effort to "flood the zone with their polls, game the averages, declare the election is tipping to them." He says that while it's entirely possible for Republicans to win in many of the elections next week, the polling and early turnout numbers so far suggest there's not really any sudden shift to the GOP - especially not if there's strong turnout by young voters upset by the GOP lawsuits blocking student aid forgiveness and taking abortion rights away.

Rosenberg warned that media organizations are being "played" if they uncritically report polling averages like those from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, given the number of GOP-aligned polls being added in recent weeks in key states. Just look, he says, at the percentages of polls the GOP-friendly groups have been doing in states Republicans consider competitive, compared to polling in states where Republicans don't think there'll be much movement.



It's not just Rosenberg, either; Tom Bonier, CEO of Progressive data firm TargetSmart, pointed out Friday that an "avalanche" of GOP polling - some relying on an "older, whiter, more male" sample of voters than in the actual electorate - was making it look like Republicans were moving ahead.



Digging further into that particular one-day poll is eye opening; it shows Republican Gov. Brian Kemp with almost 20 percent of the Black vote, which is...nah, not likely. A recent survey of Black voters in Georgia showed only 15 percent had a "favorable" view of Kemp, and that's not even the same as saying they'd vote for him.

The influx of GOP polling showing Herschel Walker suddenly up three points - which has brought him within a point of Sen. Raphael Warnock in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate - all appeared well after news stories about Walker's having paid for an abortion. As Kerrey Eleveld explains at Daily Kos, until around October 21, Warnock had a fairly steady three or four-point lead.

Roughly half of the polls included in recent swing-state averages have come from Republican-aligned firms.

Media loves a good bait-click story and they're certainly setting themselves up for good stories about "stolen elections" if the Dems sweep the House and Senate as Michael Moore predicts will happen. These right-leaning polls are not only misleading, they are dangerous.

Republicans all ready amped up from Trump's 2020 election lies will claim "we were ahead in the polls - now look at what happened! There were stolen elections! Election fraud! The polls are the 'proof' " - which will give them the excuse for more J6s.

The REAL problem with Jon Stewart

"The rise of right-wing media successfully conflated news and opinion, driving down the public's trust in the news media and journalists."
(ROBERT IGER, FORMER PRESIDENT - ABC NEWS)

---It's not supposed to BE that way.
It never WAS supposed to BE that way.
You cannot "conflate news and opinion" and make them equal because news is supposed to be based on FACTS, while opinion is best defined by "The Dude"...
"Well YOU KNOW, that's just like...your OPINION, man."

For me, when I see polls leaning to the opposing team, that just gives me more incentive to get to the voting station. I don't throw in the rag and sit out.

TargetEarly is a voting data dashboard for early data trends. TargetEarly has found that more than 80,000 18 to 29 year old voters have already voted in the state of Pennsylvania. Compare these results to the numbers in 2018 - and we get stunning results. The data shows in the year 2018, only 28,500 voters of this age bracket voted in PA.

This early trending is exactly what NPR predicted of younger voters motivated to vote due to student loan forgiveness being tied-up by GOP lawsuits and GOP legislation taking away abortion rights.

Unaffiliated voters tired of Boebert’s lies
Hopefully enough voters in CO-3 feel the same way. We’ll know Wednesday.

My forecast for tomorrow is a 50-49 GOP edge in the senate with GA going to a runoff to determine control. The Republicans gain 15-20 house seats giving them control of the house.

Now there are several states which are still within the margin of errorr, plus or minus 3 points. Here’s the states taking the MOE into consideration. It’s always very important to take the margin of error into consideration.

AZ D Kelly up by 1 – Kelly could be ahead by 4 or down by 2
NV R Laxalt up by 3 – Laxalt could be ahead by 6 or tied
PA D Fetterman, R Oz tied – Either candidate could be up by 3 or down by 3
GA R Walker up by 1 – Walker could be up by 4 or down by 2 when the MOE is taken into consideration.
NH D Hassan up by 1 – Hassan could be up by 4 or down by 2
WI R Johnson up by 3 – Johnson could be tied or up by 6
WA D Murray up by 3 – Murray could be tied or up by 6

Most prognosticators would rate all the above states as tossups. But I don’t do tossups. I give AZ, PA, NH, WA to the Democrats, NV WI to the Republicans with GA going to a runoff on 6 Dec 2022.

The house looks like a GOP gain of 15-20 seats as independents, the non-affiliated, the less to non-partisan voters seem to be breaking toward the GOP.

One needs to realize in the last four elections, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020 the polls underestimated the Republican vote. The question is, did the polling firms correct this problem. If not, the Republicans are facing a darn good midterm. If the Pollsters over corrected, underestimating the Democratic vote, then there a good chance the Democrats will do well, keeping control of the senate and limiting Republican gains in the house to around 10. I highly doubt the polling firms have got this right on. They'ore never right on.