Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Interesting Georgia results, Republicans from Kemp on down swept all statewide elections by an average of 8 points. But Walker, Trump chosen is basically tied with Warnock. Probably pending a 6 Dec runoff. NH, R Sununu won the governorship by 16 points, Trump chosen R Bolduc lost the senate race by 8 Points. OH R DeWine won the governorship by 15 points, Trump chosen R Vance won, but only by 6 points. Both Trump chosen candidates lost in PA. It looks like both of Trump’s chosen candidates for governor and senator will lose in AZ.

All indicating Trump has been a factor, a big negative factor for the Republicans. I have no doubt that better quality candidates could have won in those states if not for Trump. If the Democrats can hold on to the senate, they have Trump to thank for that.

The official count now for the senate is Republicans 49, WI has been called for R Johnson, Democrats 48 with AZ, NV and GA still outstanding. The house is now at 203 Republican, 176 Democratic with 56 seats still in play. The Republicans have flipped 11 seats, the Democrats 4.

Crucial Georgia Senate race between Warnock, Walker heads to December runoff

https://www.yahoo.com/news/crucial-...runoff-184639380.html?.tsrc=bell-brknews

This leaves just AZ and NV with the GOP in the lead at the moment 49-48 with GA in a runoff. If AZ goes to D Kelly and NV to R Laxalt as I suspect they will, this means all the marbles are once more in GA’s court. Independents went for Warnock 53-42. But is past history on runoffs is an example to be used, half of those independents won’t both to vote in the runoff. So the party’s base turnout becomes very important.

Hitler said that if you tell a lie often enough, and loud enough it will become fact. That is, exactly, what the Republicans did and they not only got away with it but they have several instances wherein they prove the point

My fond hope is that the Dems get the message. They don't even have to do the lie part, just the repetitious part. That's how they have been losing and its time for them to understand that and deal with it.

I know, wishful thinking......

What are you talking about?!? You wrote this post 14:00 EST on 11/09/22. Arizona is settled and has been since last night.

Arizona hasn't been called yet, at least by CNN.

Three states will decide the Senate

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/r...key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

https://readerrant.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=346129#Post346129

There's still 33% of the vote to count in Arizona. The numbers you have are for 67% that has been counted. Still a third of the ballots are left to count.

Although CNN shows the GOP leading so far in the house races 206-187. The more important numbers are the Republicans have flipped 14 Democratic seats to the Democrats flipping only 4 Republican seats. That’s a net gain as of 1900hrs of 10 for the Republicans whereas the GOP needed net gain of 5 to retake control of the house.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-congress-senate-house-11-09-2022/index.html

The AZ SecState website has the results.

¯\_( : / )_/¯

While we still don’t know which party will win majority control of the House and Senate, we do know that it’ll be close either way. At this rate the Democrats have perhaps a 50-50 chance of winning the House majority. And the Democrats merely need to win two out of the four remaining Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin in order to retain de facto majority control of the Senate.

The fact that the race results are so close means that the expert predictions were all off.

The Dobbs decision clearly motivated a large number of people to vote who wouldn’t normally vote. Pollsters have a notoriously difficult time trying to figure out how to accurately sample demographics of voters who don’t usually vote but have suddenly been motivated to vote.

Democrat’ House and Senate poll numbers rose across the board from May through September. Then, a few weeks ago the Republicans started commissioning polls that showed the GOP having supposedly locked up the midterms. Even though the media and polling analysts were split on whether to embrace or reject these commissioned polls, the mere existence of these "polls" seemed to goad the legitimate pollsters into shifting their methodologies, because the legitimate polls also started shifting toward the Republicans without any real world basis for having done so. This in turn goaded the entire media and expert class into predicting a blowout loss for the Democrats.

Legitimate pollsters will need to seriously reevaluate their methodologies if they want to remain relevant. Polling analysts will need to rethink their entire approach. And the mainstream media – which eagerly got on board with the baseless narrative these final weeks that this was going to be a red wave – obviously needs to take a long look at their role in this.

Are you telling me the AZ Secretary of State knows the results already although there are still 400,000 ballots that remain to be counted in Arizona's Maricopa County. Along with Arizona's Pima County has about 159,000 ballots to count Arizona election official say. That around 560,000 ballots still to be counted from just 2 of Arizona’s counties. Around another 100,000 from the rest of Arizona’s counties.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-congress-senate-house-11-09-2022/index.html

Kelly leads by 95,000 or so votes, chances are he’ll win. But with a third of the votes yet to be counted, the winner in Arizona’s senate race hasn’t been officially determined yet. I’m willing to say Kelly will win Arizona tying the senate at 49-49 with NV and the GA runoff yet to be determined. In NV Laxalt leads by 18,000 with 80% of the votes counted. Around 210,000 remain to be counted. NV is still rated a tossup. If Cortez Masto can pull it out, that’ll give the democrats 50 and guarantee them control of the senate regardless of who wins the GA runoff. If Laxalt wins, that will give the GOP 50-49 advantage depending on GA for control of the senate. This is counting AZ as a Democrat win, although far from official or determined yet.

The House according to CNN now stands at 208-188 GOP. The more important number is the Republicans have now flipped 16 Democratic seats to the Democrats having flipped 4 formerly held Republican seats. A net gain of 12 seats for the Republicans. That means if both parties hang on to their remaining seats, the GOP will have 225-210 advantage next year. But there are still 39 races to be called.

Said 100% of precents reporting. I highlighted it for you on the graphic.