Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Nope. On MO 11/07/22, 538 said the Rs had a 55% chance to take the Senate. THAT was based on the skewed GOP polling.

True, but if you checked at the top of that 55%, it said the senate is a dead heat. His graphics listed 51-60% as a tossup, 61-75% as lean, 76-95% as likely and 96-100% as solid or safe. But wait, that 55% may not be wrong, yet anyway. All the GOP has to do is win NV and then win in the GA runoff, that gives them control of senate 51-49. The senate is still undecided. Laxalt still has approximately a 16,000 vote lead over Cortez Masto with 83% of NV votes counted. Time will tell if that 55% was right or wrong as we don’t know the final results yet.

But a reminder, that 55% still put the senate in a tossup category.

Republicans were predicting a "Red Wave" ( They should have gone with Crimson Tide ) in this election. Part of this was just strategy - if you act overconfident and talk about how much everyone loves you and wants what you are selling, people will usually just go along with you out of sheer laziness - but many of them also seem to have really believed it and were quite shocked when it, sadly, did not come to pass.

Many Republicans were heartbroken to discover that while they thought people would be voting on "the economy, inflation, crime" - none of which are problems that electing Republicans would solve - many voters actually were voting on abortion.

Proof? Four anti-abortion ballots went down in defeat - one of which was really red state Kentucky.

Rick, I don’t run in either the Republican nor the Democratic circles and I don’t pay any attention to either party’s talking heads. I don’t give a cat’s meow or a cow’s moo about what either side says, I ignore them. Republicans predicting a red wave, sure. Hearts not number, polls, hard data nor stats talking. The same with the Democrats talking heads. I go with 538, RCP, Cook, Rothenberg, Inside edition, Sabato, more. The unbiased professionals.

I do think a red wave was possible from January until the first week of August. Being possible doesn’t mean and didn’t mean it would happen. Even then you were looking at a likely gain of around 20 seats for the GOP in the house. A wave election is described as the out of power party gaining 30 plus seats while taking control of the house. Senate wise, the largest gain possible was 3 seats, AZ, NV, GA, the rest were rated safe/likely.

That changed during the first week of August when the Democrats took the momentum away from the Republicans. The house gains dropped to 10 for the GOP and the Democrats were looking at a possible 2 seat gain in the senate. At the end of September, the momentum switch again back to the Republicans where it became apparent around a 15-seat gain in the house was the most likely for them. The senate became a pure tossup. Neither party gaining more than one seat or the senate remaining 50-50 tie. This is history among the non-biased professionals.

No red wave was ever forecasted. I should say, it was forecasted only by very partisan, very biased Republican talking heads who refused to go by the numbers and unbiased data. They were idiots as far as I’m concerned who were only saying what their followers, supporters, audience, viewership wanted to hear. No truth or facts involved. I ignored them, pretty much as I ignored those who were saying the Democrats would retain control of the house.

You were pushing the "the economy, inflation, crime" will triumph and get people to the polls, I countered with abortion, and the defeat of the four anti-abortion measures is indicative that abortion DID get folks to the polls - as it should have because a right for 50 years was taken-away.

You see what you want to see. Explain to me why after the 24 June ruling overturning ROE, that the Republicans continued to lead in the generic congressional poll by the roughly the same margin for more than a month after the overturning. From a 2.6 point lead down to a 2.4 point lead until August when Trump became the focal point for a good month and a half enabling the Democrats to take the lead in the generic.

You’re talking Kentucky, Vermont, California and Michigan. The only surprise among those 4 might be Kentucky. The rest are Democratic states. Republicans won 5 of Kentucky’s 6 congressional districts. The abortion measure there to was to exclude abortion rights from the state constitution which by a 53-47 margin. Very close. Abortion didn’t change a single congressional district in Kentucky. Republicans also swept Montana’s congressional delegation although another abortion measure was defeated there.

Abortion didn’t change any outcome, not even in Kansas. It seems to me it was more a reluctance of independents to vote for Trump chosen candidates, a reluctance to support candidates of a party lead by Trump. Across the board, you can see Republican winning in different states, statewide elections, by an average of 8 points more than Trump chosen candidates or Trump election deniers, Trumpers in general. Democrats owe Trump a huge thankyou note. Trump was the biggest asset the Democratic had going for them, especially among independents as I said more times than I can count, don’t care for Trump.

You can make abortion the deciding factor if you wish, but the facts, numbers show differently.

Now you might enjoy this.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09/republican-election-deniers-trump-defeat-00066040

Arizona now has 78% of the voted counted with Kelly up by 115,000 votes. I expect Arizona will be officially awarded to D Kelly soon. That leaves a 49-49 tie with NV and GA to go. In NV R Laxalt has a 9,000-vote lead with 90% of the vote counted. If Laxalt wins, no guarantee since there’s around 90,000 votes still to be counted.

The house now stands at 211-198 Republican with 26 seats yet to be decided. I’m beginning to wonder if CNN numbers are correct. That is their flipped seats. CNN has the GOP flipping 16 Democratic seats to the Democrats flipping 4 Republicans to their column. That’s a net gain of 12 seats for the GOP which should give them 225 when all is said and done. This may be just me, but the numbers aren’t adding up.

The Democrats has also gained 2 governorships this midterm.

I’m going to throw this in here. I see the GOP worries/fears coming true. This goes back to my, independents don’t like Trump much mantra.

Senate GOP fears another Trump disaster in Georgia runoff

https://www.yahoo.com/news/senate-gop-fears-another-trump-110000845.html

It absolutely did. The ENTIRE Michigan state legislation flipped to Dems. The abortion measure on the ballot rolling abortion back to a 1800s abortion law absolutely brought the Dems out as evident by the legislature flip.


¯\_( : / )_/¯

Some light at the end of the tunnel. Not about who won their races, but rather who lost. Watch this at about 10 minutes in:

PBS election summary

Two candidates who lost, a Democrat and a Republican, and they both conceded graciously. Because that's how America is supposed to work. And the pundits said this has been the case in the vast majority of races, nationwide. Hopeful news!