Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

All I want to know is why 45% of all women voted Republican this time around, the highest percentage voting Republican since 2014. Abortion may have been mighty important to a lot of women, no doubt. But as I stated many times, those who abortion was mighty important were already democrats and voted that way. Only, if only is the right word, in 2016 41% of women voted for Trump, 40% of women voted for Republican congressional candidates in 2018 while 42% voted for Trump in 2020. All lower percentages of the woman’s vote going Republican than in 2022. Abortion didn’t seem to change any woman’s vote as to who they were planning on voting for.. If abortion was the game changer as you seem to imply, wouldn’t a higher percentage, more women vote Democratic this year than in previous years?

I don’t think abortion played a major part for 2 reasons. Why the overturning of ROE didn’t change any of these women’s minds as to who they had planned to vote for. 1. Is above, more women this year voted for Republicans than in the 3 previous elections and less women voted Democratic this year, also less than any of the three previous elections. 2. Overturning Roe didn’t move the generic congressional ballot one solitary inch until 5 weeks after the decision. By that time Trump had entered the fray as the news headliner star. Trump’s entry changed the momentum from Republican to democratic.

On a lighter note, here’s an interesting article.

The New York Times - Trump Angst Wracks Republicans (Again) as 2024 Announcement Looms

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-angst-wracks-republicans-again-153127667.html

From the article: “As an American, the idea of another Trump campaign and all of his lies and divisiveness and his efforts to undermine American democracy is an absolute horror show,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. “On the other hand, I got to say that as a politician who wants to see that no Republican is elected to the White House in 2024, from that perspective, his candidacy is probably a good thing.”

I totally agree with senator Sanders.

Mansplaning why women do things is never a good idea. Just saying.

In the end Rick, it’s the results that matter. Abortion may or may not have much to do with that. What counts is the Democrats keep control in the senate. The House stands 212-204 Republican with 19 seats still to be decided. I’m still having problems with CNN’s math in regards to pickups, gains, flips. They report the Republicans have flipped 17 Democratic seats to the Democrats flipping or switching 5 Republican seats. A net gain of 12 seats for the Republicans. You had a 222-213 advantage prior to the election, if CNN is correct that the GOP should end up with a 225-210 majority. We’ll see.

I’m not saying the count of 212-204 is wrong, it’s just seats flipped if one follows the remaining 19 seats isn’t adding up. Of course, I suppose only a numbers guy would be attuned to that. The Democrats still have a chance, a slim one of retaining the house.

My congressional district, NM 02, flipped from red to blue, and the Reep already conceded, but CNN hasn't declared it yet. I have no idea why not.

What I find interesting is split ticket votes in various states: NV, WI, AZ.

Trump running in 2024 might seem like a good thing for Democrats, but the problem with it is it encourages a lot of MAGAite candidates to run, and they can win their primaries. In deep red states and districts, they can then win elections. So it perpetuates trumpism, even if Trump loses.

I suspect that a lot of Trump's MAGA base will lose interest once Trump is out of the race. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump "burns the house down" by telling them it's all rigged and to stay home on election day.

But I also think Garland will not ignore the 14th Amendment, so Trump may be disqualified even if he gets probation instead of prison.

Rick, Independents splitting their ticket is not unusual. Look at 2020, Biden won the presidency with independents voting for him by a 54-41 margin. But independents voted for the Democrats in the congressional races 49-48. Lots of split ticketing there. For senators in 2020 it was independents voting Republican 51-47 and for governors 52-47. This is why I said 2020 was no more than an anti-Trump election with no endorsement of either party’s agenda. Independents just wanted Trump gone. So many voted for Biden, against Trump is more the truth than for Biden, then voted Republican down ballot. 2020 was a split decision. Much like 2022.

Georgia may do the same, split ticket. Kemp received 54% of the vote here, Walker 48%. A large portion of Independents vote candidates more than party. Then too, governor races are more local, decided on local issues while senate races are more national, with national issues holding priority.

Keep in mind, independents aren’t loyal to any political party. Most detest both parties. Only 25% of independents view the Democratic favorably, 26% the Republican Party. Why is the house so close this time? It looks like the Democrats winning the gerrymandering wars, a plus of 10 seats saved them from a rout. As of now the total popular vote for congress is Republicans 51.2 to the Democrats 46.9%. Not official yet as they’re still counting, but this is the current numbers.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

I’m a swing voter who has split his ballot or ticket almost every election I can remember. Voting for some Republicans and voting for some democrats. It all depends on the candidates, who I like and or dislike. Many times, I vote third party if I dislike both major party candidates. I’m not a party loyalist either. I don’t march to either party’s drumbeat. But being anti-Trump these last 6 years has moved me closer to the Democrats than the GOP. Although I still voted for some non-Trump Republicans this time. I’m sure other swing voters, I like swing voter better than independent, that they did the same as I. Voted the candidate, not the party.

Pondering - I think the Republicans will now enter a civil war period. At least that’s how it looks now. Trump and his MAGA candidates took a whipping this time around. But they still want control of the Republican Party. There are other non-MAGA, non-Trump Republicans who want to move on. They know Trump and MAGA aren’t the type of candidate that win in the general election, sticking with them means more defeats in the future. McCarthy and McConnell may be out. The Democrats may rejoice at that, but those two could be considered moderate when compared to who replaces them. Time will tell.

Trump, MAGA republicans still want control of the GOP, sane Republicans, Republicans interested in winning general elections knows MAGA is a losing proposition as this election proved. The question is, are there enough non-MAGA Republicans to oust MAGA. I doubt it. But all of this helps the Democrats. Too many Republicans are only interested in making a statement, they're Trumpers, they’re not interested in winning elections. Watch and see what happens, this could be interesting.

Thank you, I wasn't sure about that one but now I know better! Kinda makes sense. I wonder why the Dems pass stuff they know will never see the light of day.

Nope, I wager that in a year's time or less, ALL Republicans will fall in love and fall in line all over again.
They can't help themselves.