Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

House 217D-218R


Not the 15 R pick-up predicted.

¯\_(: / )_/¯

Not even close to it.

Pelosi announces she will not run for leadership post after GOP wins House

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/nancy-pelosi-announcement-house-democrats/index.html

Like her or hate her, Pelosi was one savvy speaker and politician. Only 34% of all Americans had a favorable view of Pelosi.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/nancy_pelosi_favorableunfavorable-6673.html

That didn’t matter, she was well like in her district which continued to return her to Washington and by fellow Democrats who kept her as Speaker. She did her job darn well. I think the Democrats will miss her leadership.

I wonder what happens if the DOJ actually charges Trump?

You wonder about the DOJ, here in Georgia I’m wondering about the Atlanta DA. With either one I’d expect a political firestorm. I think Trump announced so early so he can claim his indictment by either Atlanta, or the DOJ is nothing more than a Democratic administration, party, partisan witch hunt and trial due to both the Atlanta DA and the DOJ under Democrats. That Trump is be persecuted solely for political reasons as the democrats don't want him runnng for president. Which in all honesty, they don't.

I also predict that the 40% of Americans who are democrats or independents lean democratic will rejoice. That around 40% of Americans who are republicans or independents lean republican will defend Trump, be outraged and probably take to the streets in protest as they view the indictments if they come as nothing more than Democratic partisanship revenge. An unwarranted use of government power for purely political partisan reasons. The remain 20% won’t give an owl’s hoot about the whole thing one way or the other. They won’t care.

This thread started July 13, 2022, titled: The GOP and Democrats are all but tied going into the midterms.

Turns out, that title was exactly true four months later, the polls were wrong.

Were they? Generic congressional ballot wise RCP had the GOP winning the popular vote by 2.5 points. With 7 races to be determines, republicans received 50.9% to the Democrats 47.3% nationwide which is what the generic congressional ballot is. With the margin of error of plus of minus 3 points which these polls have, RCP generic was off by 1.1 points. 2.5 Republican advantage in the polls to a 3.6 Republican advantage when the votes were counted. Being off by 1.1 points is well within the 3 point plus or minus margin of error, so RCP was right on and correct as far as the generic is concerned. The Democrats winning the gerrymandering wars by 10 districts made this a close race as to the number of seats each party will have in the House.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Senate wise, the polls had Kelly winning in AZ which he did, Fetterman winning PA, GA going to a runoff which it is. Hassan winning NH, Budd winning in NC, Johnson in WI, Vance in OH, Rubio winning FL. The only one the polls got wrong was NV where Cortez Masto beat Laxalt in a very close race. The polls missed 1 out of 35 senate races. That’s pretty darn good. I also missed NV. I predicted Laxalt.

I can’t give the polling figures on the house races as I don’t have all the polls for all 435 races. What I have is the Republicans leading in 204 vs the Democrats leading in 186 with 45 no polls on. I can’t tell you how accurate the polling was for each district as I don’t have the information to give you that. Just nationally.

Right now, the Republicans have their 218, a 5-seat gain with 7 more races to be called. Which makes CNN’s number questionable. CNN reports the Republicans flipped 18 previously held democratic seats, the Democrats flipped 6 previously held Republicans seats which if CNN is correct, that a net gain of 12 for the Republicans. With the old House, the Democrats had a 222-213 advantage, a net gain of 12 should give the Republican 225. I’m still having problems with CNN’s math. But this is a numbers guy problem, not yours. I think flipped seats should match the final total for each party.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/r...key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

Yes. Around here, there was a prediction of a 15 House R pickups based on the polls.

¯\_(: / )_/¯

That doesn't mean the polls were wrong, it means house predictions were slightly off. Remember there were 45 house seats I took a SWAG on that I couldn't find any polls on. The house generic polls were right on with the total popular vote. It's the number of seats won and lost that were slightly off. I'm satisfied with the senate, 34 out of 35. 97% there. There are still 7 seats according to CNN that hasn’t been called. The GOP leads in 4, the Democrats in 3. If those leads hold up, that would give the GOP a gain of 9 seats from their original 213 to 222. Think about that, The Democrats entered the midterm with a 222-213 advantage, if the leads hold up in the final 7 outstanding not called seats, the Republicans will have an identical 222-213 advantage the Democrats just had. Amazing for a numbers guy.

9 isn’t 13-15, but considering we’re talking about 435 seats, that isn’t too bad. Remember I said 13-15 seat gain for the Republicans. Missing it by 4 if everything holds, I think that’s pretty good. It’s real close. One seat the democrats lead in is Alaska which has ranked choice voting. Alaska is still counting votes for the 1st round. With 90% of the vote counted for the 1st round D Peltola leads with 48%, R Palin is next with 26%, R Begich at 24% and Independent Bye 2%. Since Peltola didn’t receive the 50% plus one vote, they’ll have to go to round 2 where Bye is eliminate and his 2nd choice votes are given to whomever they chose, then probably a 3rd round where Begich’s 2nd choice votes are awarded to either Peltola or Palin.

Another interesting race I’ve been watching is the Alaska senate race, again with 90% of the votes counted in the first round of ranked choice voting. R Tshibaka leads with 43.3%, R Murkowski has 43.1% D Chesbro at 10% and R Kelly at 3%. This one will be headed for a 2nd round also and probably a 3rd round.

Oh, Greger said 11 seat gain for the GOP, so he came closer than I did. That would be 224 Republican seats to my 226-228. Beaten by a rookie, congratulation Greger.

Actually I think there is something like 8 investigations into Trump malfeasance. All but the first one filed, I suspect, will stir things up. If they all come to pass that's probably the only one to be a big deal and if they all do it then, by the time they are all over I also suspect that its gonna be old hat and nobody is going to care. I guess what I am saying is that if everybody actually files that there are gonna be a lot of admirers that may have changed their minds along the way. As far as I know the DOJ has 2 years to do something. I think that if one of these cases actually gets him into court then all the rest will work a little harder to join the herd.

My suspicion is that when the true believers understand that Trump doesn't pay his bills, has been stealing from Gov from the getgo and lies so much that his own attorneys are terrified and don't want him to testify because he can't help himself. I think I remember when one news paper kept a record of Trump lies and, as far as I know, they stopped at about 6000 lies. Now throw in the simple fact that he has been milking the true believers themselves for a very long time and ............ Once the dam breaks its gonna be interesting.

I also doubt, very much, that Trump could ever win back the presidency. There are simply too many who just want him gone, on all sides. If that happens then many of the elected true believers will be in for it as well. Its kinda like the old story of picking a bad horse.

The real problem is what happens if Trump weathers the storm, is never charged or wins on the cases then I have to wonder what happens to the lefties as well. There is a LOT of stuff that each side has invested in over nailing Trump and BOTH sides, depending on outcome, will lose much when they lose.