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Were they? Generic congressional ballot wise RCP had the GOP winning the popular vote by 2.5 points. With 7 races to be determines, republicans received 50.9% to the Democrats 47.3% nationwide which is what the generic congressional ballot is. With the margin of error of plus of minus 3 points which these polls have, RCP generic was off by 1.1 points. 2.5 Republican advantage in the polls to a 3.6 Republican advantage when the votes were counted. Being off by 1.1 points is well within the 3 point plus or minus margin of error, so RCP was right on and correct as far as the generic is concerned. The Democrats winning the gerrymandering wars by 10 districts made this a close race as to the number of seats each party will have in the House.
Senate wise, the polls had Kelly winning in AZ which he did, Fetterman winning PA, GA going to a runoff which it is. Hassan winning NH, Budd winning in NC, Johnson in WI, Vance in OH, Rubio winning FL. The only one the polls got wrong was NV where Cortez Masto beat Laxalt in a very close race. The polls missed 1 out of 35 senate races. That’s pretty darn good. I also missed NV. I predicted Laxalt.
I can’t give the polling figures on the house races as I don’t have all the polls for all 435 races. What I have is the Republicans leading in 204 vs the Democrats leading in 186 with 45 no polls on. I can’t tell you how accurate the polling was for each district as I don’t have the information to give you that. Just nationally.
Right now, the Republicans have their 218, a 5-seat gain with 7 more races to be called. Which makes CNN’s number questionable. CNN reports the Republicans flipped 18 previously held democratic seats, the Democrats flipped 6 previously held Republicans seats which if CNN is correct, that a net gain of 12 for the Republicans. With the old House, the Democrats had a 222-213 advantage, a net gain of 12 should give the Republican 225. I’m still having problems with CNN’s math. But this is a numbers guy problem, not yours. I think flipped seats should match the final total for each party.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
