Here’s a thought as I dig further into exit polls and after-action reports that the midterms ceased being a referendum on Biden and the Democrats as is usually the case. Although this was a part of it. The midterms turned into referendum on Trump and to a smaller part, on the overturning of ROE and on rising prices, inflation. Biden and his poor overall job approval rating of around 40% wasn’t part of the equation as I and most other forecasters thought it would be. It’s interesting at the number of Trump chosen candidates who lost. I can think of at least 4 senate candidates who lost in states the Republicans should have won and a 5th who was a tossup, Bolduc. 2 Trump chosen governors and 15 Trump endorsed house candidates also lost.

Remember, from January through July, the Republicans seems poised for a possible red wave election when Trump was out of the picture. In the background, not on the news, basically forgotten about by independents. Then around the first week of August, Trump became a headline news star. On the news constantly, leading off on most news reports. That’s when the Democrats took the lead in the generic congressional ballot. Fetterman, Warnock, Cortez Masto, Kelly senate wise all moved to double digit leads or close to it in the case of Warnock and Cortez Masto. That held until the end of September when Trump moved more to the back page of the news reports. The Republicans took over the lead in the generic. Although by a point or two, nothing big. The senate candidates lead I mentioned fell to where Laxalt overtook Cortez Masto and Walker grabbed the lead over Warnock, Bolduc in NH closed within 3 points of Hassan, Masters in AZ closed to within 4 points, Oz in PA within 1.

We all know what happened on election day. Surprisingly, independents who all of us prognosticators thought would be voting for Republicans, abet by a smaller margin than normal with a president hovering around 40% approval, they voted Democratic 49-47. Why? My conclusion is Biden stayed in the background, basically unseen. Trump was out front. Gaining exposure all over the place. Hence instead of becoming a referendum on Biden and company as usual, in became more of another referendum on Trump. For the most part, non-Trump endorsed Republicans candidates won, many Trump endorsed or chosen candidates lost. This election was more a referendum on Trump than Biden and company, especially among the independent voters who don’t like Trump much.

Still the Republicans increased their vote among women, 45% the highest since 1988 when G.H.W. Bush received 50%, among blacks 13%, the highest since 1976 when Ford received 15%. 39% of the Hispanic vote, second only to G.W. Bush’s 44% in 2004 since 1972 when keep stats on Hispanics began. The 42% of the white vote fell below the 2018 midterms 44% and Obama’s 43% in 2008, then you must go back to 1976 when Carter received 47% to find when democrats other than in 2008 and 2018 received higher than the 42% the Democrats received this year. There’s a trend developing here, but that can be addressed another day.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.