Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

It’s now 219-212 Republican advantage with 4 seats left to be determined. Republicans lead in 3 of those with Alaska being the 4th to be determined by rank voting. Republican Boebert won in Colorado 3.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/r...key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

Here’s a thought as I dig further into exit polls and after-action reports that the midterms ceased being a referendum on Biden and the Democrats as is usually the case. Although this was a part of it. The midterms turned into referendum on Trump and to a smaller part, on the overturning of ROE and on rising prices, inflation. Biden and his poor overall job approval rating of around 40% wasn’t part of the equation as I and most other forecasters thought it would be. It’s interesting at the number of Trump chosen candidates who lost. I can think of at least 4 senate candidates who lost in states the Republicans should have won and a 5th who was a tossup, Bolduc. 2 Trump chosen governors and 15 Trump endorsed house candidates also lost.

Remember, from January through July, the Republicans seems poised for a possible red wave election when Trump was out of the picture. In the background, not on the news, basically forgotten about by independents. Then around the first week of August, Trump became a headline news star. On the news constantly, leading off on most news reports. That’s when the Democrats took the lead in the generic congressional ballot. Fetterman, Warnock, Cortez Masto, Kelly senate wise all moved to double digit leads or close to it in the case of Warnock and Cortez Masto. That held until the end of September when Trump moved more to the back page of the news reports. The Republicans took over the lead in the generic. Although by a point or two, nothing big. The senate candidates lead I mentioned fell to where Laxalt overtook Cortez Masto and Walker grabbed the lead over Warnock, Bolduc in NH closed within 3 points of Hassan, Masters in AZ closed to within 4 points, Oz in PA within 1.

We all know what happened on election day. Surprisingly, independents who all of us prognosticators thought would be voting for Republicans, abet by a smaller margin than normal with a president hovering around 40% approval, they voted Democratic 49-47. Why? My conclusion is Biden stayed in the background, basically unseen. Trump was out front. Gaining exposure all over the place. Hence instead of becoming a referendum on Biden and company as usual, in became more of another referendum on Trump. For the most part, non-Trump endorsed Republicans candidates won, many Trump endorsed or chosen candidates lost. This election was more a referendum on Trump than Biden and company, especially among the independent voters who don’t like Trump much.

Still the Republicans increased their vote among women, 45% the highest since 1988 when G.H.W. Bush received 50%, among blacks 13%, the highest since 1976 when Ford received 15%. 39% of the Hispanic vote, second only to G.W. Bush’s 44% in 2004 since 1972 when keep stats on Hispanics began. The 42% of the white vote fell below the 2018 midterms 44% and Obama’s 43% in 2008, then you must go back to 1976 when Carter received 47% to find when democrats other than in 2008 and 2018 received higher than the 42% the Democrats received this year. There’s a trend developing here, but that can be addressed another day.

Thanks to decent Americans, against everyone's predictions, except for Michael Moore, the election deniers lost, and the defiers won.



Independents showed they could actually be independents. Usually they're just closet Repoblicans. This year, they did what they never do in midterms, they came in droves for the party in power - and told the party that ran on a platform of "fck elections" to "go fck yourselves."

Sometimes America surprises you - this year was something special, our better angels haven't put up a win like this in a long time



#RallyTheNormies
#BullyTheBullies

I wouldn't call 49-47 margin droves, but suit yourself.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house

Given there was no red wave, independents thwarted Rwing fascism and they should be commended for doing the decent, right thing. The fact that independents supported the party in power this midterm says a lot.

It says they don’t like Trump as independents proved in 2018, 2020 and 2022. But they don’t like both major parties either. Only 28% of independents have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, 29% of the Republican Party.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/gebmjsbpbw/econTabReport.pdf

What they don’t like is Trump himself which they proved by voting against Trump endorsed, chosen candidate like Walker, Bolduc, Oz, Laxalt, Masters, Cox, Diehl, Tshibaka, Palin etc. but voting for non-Trump Republicans like Sununu, Kemp, DeWine, Murkowski, Grassley, Phil Scott, etc.

If you equate fascism to Trump, then yes, you're correct. Independents voted against him and his candidates. But they also voted against the Democrats when there was a non-Trump Republican candidate available.

Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2022 - his election deniers were.


Yes, I wrote that:
Whether you like it or not, Trump's candidates were on the GOP ticket, because many of the GOP base like those kinds of people.

CNN now has it 219-212 Republican/Democrat in the house with 4 races remaining. AK -1, CA-3,13 and 22. The Republican holds the lead in all the CA races while Alaska will go to a second round in the rank voting system AK has now installed since no candidate received the 50% plus one vote.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/r...key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

The GOP may control the house, but they’re far from unified. All they can do is stop Biden’s legislative agenda. But Biden can govern by Executive Order as Obama did his last six years. Obama bypassed congress in quite a lot of his agenda. Although some were eventually ruled unconstitutional. Most weren’t.

But some of CNN numbers still bug me. CNN has the Democrats flipping 6 Republican seats while the Republicans flipped 18 democratic seats. Being the Democrats held a 222-213 advantage pre-midterm in the house. The Republicans have a 12-seat net gain if one goes by the flipped seats CNN is reporting which should give the Republicans a 225-210 advantage which if CNN numbers are correct is impossible with just 4 races left. Of course, this is a numbers guy problem.

I think what was meant by that comment is in races which were close the Dems came in droves to take some of those races.

Where I live even if Dems came in droves it wouldn't do any good, as Republicans have effectively gerrymandered the state so it wouldn't matter. My vote was a throwaway in the precinct where I voted as 99% of my neighbors are true MAGA supporters.

Despite all the hubbub regarding midterms the only real news was Trump is running again, just as every person who understands narcissists would have predicted.

On the bright side, none of the election deniers, who had all stated they would have overturned the election, were elected. Thus one avenue for Trump to win (in case he actually loses) has been shunted. Of course we still have to wait to see what Republican legislatures will do regarding new election laws. It could be they will try to retain all the power of the elections and award themselves power to overturn elections or not certify them. Gotta wait on that and the SC to see where they are going (they have ruled against Trump but may be waiting to rule FOR Republicans).

Despite all the focus groups and polling as one pundit who agreed with me said, when it comes right down to the nitty gritty the base will continue to follow Trump. He is their voice .... Gov De Santis is but a faint echo.