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Two things I’ve noticed RPorter, Trump still is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. But a closer look shows Trump has fallen below 50% for the first time, DeSantis has risen from the teens to the upper 20’s. This has been a long-term trend. I think this trend will continue, DeSantis rising, Trump falling as time goes by.
Second, yes. Those GOP candidates who campaigned on the past, the 2020 stolen election were for the most part losers. This isn’t what independents wanted to hear, although it was what the Republican base wanted to hear. Republicans who campaign on the future or on their record as was the case for Republican governors were the winners. People want good government, DeWine, Kemp and Sununu for example gave the people of their state good government. They were reelected in races that weren’t close, runaways. While Trump chosen senate candidate trailed them by around 15 points in the votes they received on average. Vance, Walker, Bolduc.
I’d say the Republican base is slowly changing also. Back in January 2021 65% of all Republicans had a very favorable view of Trump, 16% somewhat favorable. Total favorable 81%. Today 41% of all Republicans view Trump very favorable, down 24 points. 37% somewhat favorable, up 21 points, total favorable, 78%. How to define somewhat isn’t really definable. But somewhat isn’t wholehearted support. It's kind ow wishy washy, like Trump is better than any democrat kind of support.
DeSantis on the other hand is seen 55% very favorable by all Republicans, 19% somewhat favorable today. DeSantis very favorable’s are higher than Trump’s 41% I expect the trend toward DeSantis will continue, slowly, but will continue. The die hard Trumpers will never leave him, but what percentage do they make up of the Republican Party these days? Taking a SWAG, I’d estimate 35-40%. Basically, the same number he had back in 2016 when the GOP primaries began. The rest just jumped on his bandwagon.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
