Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

A couple of very Red counties in Arizona have election boards that say they won't certify the election because of MAGA fantasies. The funny thing is that Arizona election law says that any county that does not certify by December 5th, has all it's votes disqualified. There are a few very close races where this would flip the winner from the Republican to the Democratic candidate. They could even lose a House seat!

Since these are predominantly Republican votes, there is no race that could flip Republican. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Two things I’ve noticed RPorter, Trump still is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. But a closer look shows Trump has fallen below 50% for the first time, DeSantis has risen from the teens to the upper 20’s. This has been a long-term trend. I think this trend will continue, DeSantis rising, Trump falling as time goes by.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...blican_presidential_nomination-7548.html

Second, yes. Those GOP candidates who campaigned on the past, the 2020 stolen election were for the most part losers. This isn’t what independents wanted to hear, although it was what the Republican base wanted to hear. Republicans who campaign on the future or on their record as was the case for Republican governors were the winners. People want good government, DeWine, Kemp and Sununu for example gave the people of their state good government. They were reelected in races that weren’t close, runaways. While Trump chosen senate candidate trailed them by around 15 points in the votes they received on average. Vance, Walker, Bolduc.

I’d say the Republican base is slowly changing also. Back in January 2021 65% of all Republicans had a very favorable view of Trump, 16% somewhat favorable. Total favorable 81%. Today 41% of all Republicans view Trump very favorable, down 24 points. 37% somewhat favorable, up 21 points, total favorable, 78%. How to define somewhat isn’t really definable. But somewhat isn’t wholehearted support. It's kind ow wishy washy, like Trump is better than any democrat kind of support.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/gebmjsbpbw/econTabReport.pdf

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/ld46rgtdlz/econTabReport.pdf

DeSantis on the other hand is seen 55% very favorable by all Republicans, 19% somewhat favorable today. DeSantis very favorable’s are higher than Trump’s 41% I expect the trend toward DeSantis will continue, slowly, but will continue. The die hard Trumpers will never leave him, but what percentage do they make up of the Republican Party these days? Taking a SWAG, I’d estimate 35-40%. Basically, the same number he had back in 2016 when the GOP primaries began. The rest just jumped on his bandwagon.

Alaska to report their final results of ranked choice voting today, which was totally confusing to the voters as the article explains.

Alaska set to announce results from ‘confusing’ ranked choice system

https://www.yahoo.com/news/alaska-set-announce-results-confusing-110000917.html

Getting closer to the end, CNN now has the house 220-212 with 3 races yet to be determined. CA-2 and CA 13 which the Republican leads along with Alaska ranked voting at large district. The Democrat Peltoia will end up the winner once everything is done up there. Bringing the house to what looks like a final of 222-213. That 222-213 sound familiar? This is how the house stood prior to the election, except the Democrats had the majority. That would be a net gain of 9 seats for the GOP. Right close to Greger’s predicted 11.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/r...key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

However, CNN’s flipped, or pickup seats don’t match the probably final results. CNN has the Democrats flipping or gaining 6 republican formerly held seats while the GOP flipped or gained 18 formerly held Democratic seats. A net gain of 12 instead of 9. I’m still bugged by this. 213 Republicans seats prior to the election, a net gain of 12 should give them 225, not 222.

CNN projects Rep. Mary Peltola will win race for Alaska House seat, thwarting Sarah Palin’s political comeback again

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/23/politics/peltola-palin-alaska-election-results/index.html

This leaves the house 220-213 with 2 California races yet to be determined. CA-13 and CO-3 which the republicans lead. Lisa Murkowski also retained her senate seat.

Likely result is a 222-213 Republican controlled house.

One seat left to be decided per CNN, CA-13 where the GOP candidate has a slight lead with 96% of the vote in. With Alaska at large seat going democratic and CA-3 going Republican yesterday, today’s count is a 221-213 Republican advantage.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/r...key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

This guarantees CNN’s numbers on seats gained, flipped or switched will be wrong. CNN has the Democrats flipping 6 Republican seats, the Republicans flipping 18 Democratic seats for what should be a net gain of 12 seats for the republicans. With the old house being at 222-213 Democratic, those flipped or switched from the other party should have given us a 225-210 house.213 plus 12 flipped seats equals 225. Republicans won the popular vote 50.7 to 47.7 popular vote so far .54,150,415-50,790,432 Republican congressional candidates.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Ticket splitters ruled the day in the midterms. A little over 5 million voters split their tickets in the top races. Especially in states like Georgia, Kansas, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and probably a few more. Sometimes it was voting for a republican governor then a democratic senator or the other way around as in Wisconsin and Kansas where ticket splitters when for a Democratic governor and a republican senator.

Doubts about candidates tipped the scales in tightest races

https://www.yahoo.com/news/doubts-candidates-tipped-scales-tightest-162422752.html

Everyone knows Walker is a carpetbagger. The question I have come the runoff, will the independents who voted for Warnock by a 53-42 over Walker with 5% voting for Chase Oliver, will independents once again turnout for the runoff? The latest polls for the runoff show Warnock up 50-47 with 3% undecided. Neither is well liked with Warnock at a 46% favorable vs. Walker’s 42% among independents.

What's not to like about a preacher? Serious question.