An interesting take for a ceasefire. I admit I’m skeptical of it. I think the impasse for a negotiation the author outlined appears accurate though.

‘ The only way Ukrainians will see anything approximating a holiday season is if a ceasefire can be arranged by New Year’s Day, and it just might happen, regardless of President Volodomyr Zelenskiy’s repeated assertions that there will be no negotiations with Russia until it withdraws all its troops from all occupied territories, including Crimea. There are several reasons for the possible ceasefire.
First, the Russian hammer is about to fall on Ukraine. The gloves are coming off; electric energy stations, bridges, and even ‘decision centers’ such as central Kiev’s government buildings are being targeted. Russia is one or two more massive bombing attacks on Ukraine’s energy and transport infrastructure from permanently disabling Ukraine’s electricity, water, and railroad systems. With ‘only’ 50 percent of Ukrainian electricity infrastructure knocked out by the first three widespread bombings of electricity grid components, demonstrations are already breaking out in Odessa and other places over the deteriorating humanitarian situation, with Zelenskiy sending the Ukrainian KGB, the SBU, in to break up the protests and banning coverage in media. The Office of the President was reportedly recently informed by technicians that the electricity system has entered the stage of ‘arbitrary and uncontrolled imbalance,”

The Russian Winter Offensive

I have no confidence the brewing refugee crises can be managed by European governments. Narrative wars are one thing, material crises are another. An avoidable tragedy but good entertainment from far away for some.

No mention of ‘cuz Holdomor!’ though.

Hard pass Jeff, hard pass..

Last edited by chunkstyle; 11/24/22 06:14 PM.