Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Campaign 2020 J6: Putting it all together

I realize everyone wants to paint all Republicans as avid Trumpers which isn’t the case today. If you equate very favorable to avid Trumpers among Republicans, that’s 45% today. The problem is only 10% of Republicans view him very unfavorable which would be your never Trump republicans. The rest are somewhats either favorable or unfavorable. They go along with the majority which in this case is the 45% of avid Trumpers. Call the somewhats the sheep of the republican party.

Now DeSantis very favorable’s among the Republican Party is at 49%, higher than Trump’s and his ver unfavorable’s at 4% is lower.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h45mt3xoby/econTabReport.pdf

The latest poll on the 2024 Republican primaries show Trump at 45% to DeSantis 30%.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000184-a2ea-d1d1-ad8d-affbe2e40000

That’s a change from Trump 49%, DeSantis 26% back on 1 Nov 2022. The forecaster in me says DeSantis in about time for the 2024 republican primaries will probably have taken the lead in the popularity polls over Trump. But as the article stated, it may be meaningless if Trumpers make the rules for the primary to favor Trump. One must remember Trump won the 2016 primary nomination by receiving only 35% of the entire Republican vote. Crowed field along with Trump winning enough winner take all state with a plurality of the vote enabled him to gain the nomination. The idea here is in states where DeSantis is more popular than Trump, you make the rules for a proportional distribution of the delegates. In states where Trump is more popular, you make those states winner take all.

Now why I’m dwelling on Republicans is beyond me. One other thing for 2024, only 26% of all Americans want Biden to run again in 2024 which includes but 14% of independents. Question 23. 30% want Trump to run again in 2024 which includes 22% of independents. Question 24.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h45mt3xoby/econTabReport.pdf

Time for much younger, fresher faces to emerge in my opinion. Having another Biden vs. Trump election could result in another 2016 where a quarter of all Americans, 25% disliked both major party candidate including 54% of independents. These folks didn’t want neither one to become the next president. 2016 was the last election independents vote Republican.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

I didn't say ALL Republicans, I said nearly all Republicans IN CONGRESS.
I can name the standard Republican congressmen and senators on ONE HAND.

147 Trumpers in Congress voted to overturn the election, and the rest all except five or six were willing to cooperate enough to serve on the J6 cmte but that got squashed and NO ONE tried to fight back.

Trumpism is to Congress what the NSDAP was to the Reichstag in the 1930's.
It doesn't MATTER what ordinary people think, because ordinary people aren't serving in our legislative branch.

You’re right about ordinary people not serving in congress, they’re almost all millionaires. That wasn’t what you meant, but it is also one big difference between those who serve in congress and ordinary people. I have no use for those who voted to overturn the election. But with the huge ideological divide in this country, you have way too many people who will vote for those candidates, not because they believe those candidates are good persons or even correct on thinking the election was stolen from Trump. They vote for them because of ideology, their ideology matches with those who voted to overturn the election. By ideology, I mean conservative vs. liberal or progressive, whatever you want to call it. They don’t care how bad a scumbag their candidate is, they only care on a political philosophy level. In today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide, the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship, you won’t get a conservative to vote for a liberal or a liberal to vote for a conservative. The divide is too great. Recent history has shown that those who identify with either major party will vote for their party’s candidate 94% of the time regardless of who that candidate is, it could be Atilla the Hun, but the party Atilla belonged to would garner that party’s 94% of voters on average. That’s just the way it is today.

Would you ever vote for a Republican, I think not regardless of who your party’s candidate was.

Trump supporters have proven beyond even the shadow of a doubt that they are not conservative, sorry.


Well, go right on ahead and think what you want to think then.
Nobody ever changes their mind on debate forums.
If I still lived in Maryland and the Democratic candidate was a moron and Larry Hogan was still running I'd consider voting for him.
And as I said a month ago, right here on CHB, I had briefly considered voting for McCain, because in 2007 I was still working my tail off and I didn't know the first thing about that black guy named "Hussein" something and I figured it was some kind of sick joke in the post 9/11 era, Dems bringing some Muslim guy as a candidate.

Oh yeah, that's gonna fly about as well as a lead balloon, might as well vote for McCain...I says to myself, until I finally saw and heard the Hussein guy talking...and gaining traction.

So Pero, your hard-boiled assumption that everyone else here is excessively partisan just got blown up.
I just tend to gravitate more toward Dems because I want what most Dems want, that's all.
I wasn't living in California again in 2011, but I would have voted for Der Guvernator if I had because Cruz Bustamante was a dud from the word go and I knew Arnold was a decent man, even if I didn't agree with some of his views.

Why would ANYONE decent choose to vote for a person whose national party takes rights away and treats women and minorities like second class citizens, a party that makes it difficult for minorities to vote?

Why would ANYONE choose to vote for a person whose national party is gleeful when LGBTQ+ are murdered in their places of safety from the cruelty said party members foists upon the LGBTQ+ on a daily basis?

It's appalling that ANYONE would vote for a party member who belongs to a national party which does ANY of the above! Unless these voters support Fascism and White Christian Nationalism - then it makes sense.

Voting for today's version of Republicanism is NOT voting for decency, fairness, equity and justice for ALL.

Jeffrey, I never said Trump, nor his supporters were conservatives as I know conservatives to be. That isn’t to say that they. Trump and his supporters don’t consider themselves conservatives. They do. Almost all Democrats refer to them as conservatives. I said this many times, here and on the other site that the 7-time party switcher adopted the political philosophy of the party he belonged to at the time. Trump doesn’t have a political ideology of his own. That Trump is the true RINO. I consider myself more of a traditional conservative which has a lot in common with the classic liberal beliefs of our founding fatjers and framers. I’m way out of step with today’s neo, social, religious or any other type of conservatism. I also am out of step with today’s liberals and progressives. I fall through the crack. No political party to call home as is the case with 40% plus of the electorate who identify as independents. There’s nothing to be sorry about.

I do think Greger was a hard core progressive/socialist, but a political realist at the same time. I also think most on this site are way too crazy about Trump. I ignore most if not all of those posts. I voted for McCain. He was my type of candidate, more middle of the road and very willing to work across the aisle. This type of candidate is what I’m looking for. Not ideologues. I’m not an ideologue, never have been and never will be. Think about voting for a Republican is one thing, doing so is another. I’ve voted for both plus a bunch of third-party candidates in my lifetime, Third party when I dislike and distrust both major party candidates. Party means nothing to me. Usually, in any election I voted for all three depending on the candidates, I’m a A number one ticket splitter. One of the 5 million ticket splitters this year who voted against Trump endorsed chosen Republican candidates and then for non-Trump Republican candidates. R Kemp for governor, L Chase Oliver for Senate, D David Scott for congress and so on down the ballot.

You can consider me shot down, no problem. We all have our own likes and dislikes, what we believe in, what we think and feel. The important thing in my book is to respect those of different views and opinions. I also agree, no one is going to change anyone’s mind on a debate site. Outside of the fixation with Trump, I think we have more in common than not.

Republicans have an image problem and it starts with their national party. A snake rots from the head down. I don’t see any R disavowing their party’s national policies.

Rick, the Republicans won the congressional popular vote, Republicans 54,214,279, 50.7% to Democratic 51,066,093, 47.7%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections

Republicans also won the governor’s popular vote 42,887,294, 49.18 to the Democratic governor votes 42,845,018, 49.14%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_gubernatorial_elections

A lot of people that the Republicans were the better choice in 2022. Why? For Georgia, a good-sized majority thought Kemp was a good governor. Same up in New Hampshire with Sununu. Kemp’s finished 8 points higher than Walker. A lot of split ticketing. Same in New Hampshire, Sununu finished 13 point higher than Trump endorsed Bolduc for the senate. Ohio was the same, DeWine finished 10 points above another Trumper Vance although Vance did win Ohio’s senate seat.

The bottom line in states which comparisons were available, non-Trump Republican candidates averaged 10 points higher percentage wise than Trump chosen, endorsed candidates. Ticket splitters galore. Folks voting for non-Trump chosen candidates, then voting on the same ballot against Trump chosen candidate as was the case here in Georgia. Kemp, a Trump enemy received 200,000 more vote than Walker did, Trump chosen, and this carried out nationwide. Nationwide, in the end there were 5 million ticket splitters. Much like in 2020 when 7 million ticket splitters voted for Biden and then Republican down ballot enabling the GOP to gain 13 house seats.

Both 2020 and 2022 seems to be an election where candidates matter. Not so much on the Democratic side, but on the Republican side with Trump and his handpicked candidates. Bottom line, independents don’t like Trump and they aren’t going to vote for Trump or his chosen candidate. Without Trump, who the Democrats owe a debt of gratitude, the GOP would have had its red wave and been in control of both chambers of congress.

The bottom-line Rick, from my point of view. The Republicans need to realize they’re still the smaller of the two major parties. Hence, they must win the independent vote or lose the election. 2018, 2020, 2022 proved independents aren’t going to vote for Trump or his chosen candidates. The Republican Party needs to ditch Trump. The question is, can they? Keep Trump around for 2024, the Democrats will have a banner election. But they need a fresher, younger face at the top of the ticket, not Biden nor Harris. If that happens the democrats will not only win the presidency but recapture the house and probably add more senate seats. But unlike this year when the Republicans were defending 21 seats to the Democrats 14, 2024 will have the Democrats defending 23 seats to the Republicans 10. So adding more senate seats will be very difficult.

Nothing about voting for a Republican changes what I wrote above. How is any of THAT a "better choice?"

Kemp signed an extreme abortion bill which the GA State Supreme Court recently upheld. How is THAT a better choice?

Republicans want to take a woman's choice of her own body away from her and they're doing it, state-by-state. Republicans are coming for other rights and social programs next - like gay marriage, Social Security and Medicare.

Decent American recognize what Republicans want to do, the sheeple clearly do not.