Here we go, my friends - the latest analysis from FiveThirtyEight: Did Redistricting Cost Democrats The House?

BLUF: Yes and no.

Quote
As I wrote in June, the 2021-22 redistricting cycle didn’t radically change the partisanship of the national House map, so I mostly agree with those who say redistricting didn’t cost Democrats the House. But at the same time, those who say Republicans won only because they gerrymandered are also technically correct. How can both things be true? Allow me to explain."
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Republicans flipped three seats in Florida alone thanks to the extremely GOP-friendly map pushed through by Gov. Ron DeSantis. They also used their control over the Georgia and Tennessee redistricting processes to convert the Democratic-held Georgia 6th and Tennessee 5th into safely red seats.

But Democrats also caught a few bad breaks in states with ostensibly nonpartisan redistricting processes.
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On the other hand, Democrats flipped a few seats thanks to redistricting.
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But we also need to consider seats that didn’t flip but would have if redistricting had not occurred.

I thought the analysis was very helpful and the data informative. As with most such analyses, however, the elephant in the room is ignored: REDMAP. The 2022 maps were analyzed based upon the changes to the 2012 Districts, but those Districts were already dreadfully skewed. Any real analysis should go back further.

In a way it is akin to, and influenced by, the "white privilege" phenomenon. Whites tend to look to the past and say "look where we've come", whereas minorities look at where we are and say "look how far we have to go."

White Republicans, in this case, may not have been as successful in skewing the Districts as in the past, but we are still dealing with the legacy of heavily gerrymandered existing Districts.

Still, I commend the article to your readership.


A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich