Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Thank you for the link Pero. I knew the Rs had something to do with this...



...as I wrote above, Rubio and company picked the wrong time period - they picked daylight savings and it should be standard time.

I didn't and don't care which one it is. All I want is for the time change to stop.

I want it to stop too, but there are science and health reasons of why it should be standard time.

This is interesting as it talks about split ticking voters. My home state of Georgia will become the 6th state with huge ticket splitting between governor and senate races.

2022’s Split Ticket States

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2022s-split-ticket-states/

and the latest on the Georgia senate runoff.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...off_election_walker_vs_warnock-7968.html

The way it looks down here, the Republicans are a bit demoralized by their very poor midterm showing. Most thought a red wave was going to happen. That turned out to be a red trickle. The Democrats are energized, independents ho hum and not paying much attention. The Libertarian Chase Oliver voters don’t like Walker, the same as they didn’t like Trump and will most just stay home and not vote. Most of Oliver's votes were protest votes against both major party candidates. So the runoff which is setting records with early voting will be decided which party can get their base out to vote.

We already know which base is voting - it's the Dems. Early voting coincided with the TDay holiday weekend when a lot of folks were off from work and college kids were home.

Here we go, my friends - the latest analysis from FiveThirtyEight: Did Redistricting Cost Democrats The House?

BLUF: Yes and no.


I thought the analysis was very helpful and the data informative. As with most such analyses, however, the elephant in the room is ignored: REDMAP. The 2022 maps were analyzed based upon the changes to the 2012 Districts, but those Districts were already dreadfully skewed. Any real analysis should go back further.

In a way it is akin to, and influenced by, the "white privilege" phenomenon. Whites tend to look to the past and say "look where we've come", whereas minorities look at where we are and say "look how far we have to go."

White Republicans, in this case, may not have been as successful in skewing the Districts as in the past, but we are still dealing with the legacy of heavily gerrymandered existing Districts.

Still, I commend the article to your readership.

As I wrote on another thread, the GOP is going to tap right-wing extremists to lead a group tasked to expand GOP appeal.

Who are they? Kellyanne Conway, evangelical leader Tony Perkins and a pair of Senate candidates who ran this year - Blake Masters being one of them.

Having a liar ...erm, alternative facts teller, a religious zealot who is against a woman's autonomy over her own body, and, who is also very anti-LGBTQ+, plus an election 2020 denier like Blake Masters, it's doubtful this group is going to find ways to expand GOP appeal.

As the election demonstrated, the thread title is essentially correct. On this occasion, Republicans got more votes, but as in other elections, the distribution of voting power was uneven. Some maldistribution is inevitable - geography and demography guarantees that - but digging into the numbers on a granular basis demonstrates it is worse because of gerrymandering. I am prepared, unfortunately, for the inevitable abuse of position that is expected - and already projected - in the 118th Congress. Would that our representatives actually sought to govern rather than position their parties.

Rumorhazzit, the next Speaker won't be Kevin McCarthy, but a person who is not currently, nor will be a member of Congress, in January 2023.

The plan is for Republican moderates to take over the Speakership with this outside of Congress, individual, and deny Kevin the job, and therefore, deny the MAGAt crazies positions on various committees.

Interesting concept, which I like, but doesn't make sense.

How would Republicans even control their own caucus if the MAGA-nuts would be against everything a moderate would do? It sounds more like a Democrat would be running their caucus, since a moderate Republican would gather more Democrat votes in support of moderate bills. Conversely if the agenda would be more nutty than current MAGA-nuts indicate, no one would support that agenda.

I think Rep McCarthy, as dumb and dense as he may be, will prevail. He will become a doughy pretzel, easily manipulated and contorted into many unrecognizable shapes, in order to maintain the caucus AND more importantly not lose the MAGA-nuts Base. The BASE is the most important consideration. Without their support no Republican would ever get elected in many states.

You can say what you want about how Trump has lost support, but the bottom line is the BASE is out of the box. They are only controlled by Trump, and they will determine the future of the "Republican" Party.