Here, let me get you started Jeff. I’m about to post an argument from an observer of the oil price cap. He will state at the outset why he thinks this is a bad idea. Give his reasons why by offering his evidence. Then restate his opinion with a further observation in his conclusion.

Which is:

‘ In the best-case scenario this will mean we will have to source our oil from elsewhere, likely at a substantially higher price. In the worst-case scenario, we will suffer from serious oil shortages as we find ourselves unable to make up for the Russian supplies that we have lost. This means a lot more inflationary pressure and a lot more potential for shortages. Most of our supply chains, for example, rely on diesel fuel to function. In the case of oil shortages, expect these to translate into shortages of basic goods in your local shop.

History will surely look back on the great European energy crisis of 2022-23 as one of the strangest historical phenomena on record. The Europeans have voluntarily destroyed their economies to impose sanctions on Russia that are having no real impact on their target. As the winter cold sets in, we would be well-advised to change course.

The Russian oil price cap won’t work

I happen to agree with his rationale. I think this will hurt the EU more than it does Russia. There already evidence to support this view.

Generally, economic numbers are more reality based as there large sums of money involved at the wholesale level. Shipping tonnage, insurance issuances, port activity. Steel output, etc.. This is an easy one. We can check the numbers going forward

Do you think this will hurt the EU more than Russia going forward?

If not, why not, if yes why yes. Based on what. Feelings don’t count here. Money talking. What’s your best guess how this price cap will work out for the players involved?

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