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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: May 2005
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How Demographic Shifts Fueled by Covid Delivered Midterm Wins for Democrats...there is evidence that the demographic change spurred by Republicans’ and Democrats’ divergent responses to the pandemic likely cost Republicans a number of key seats in the 2022 midterms. And the fallout, fueled by cross-country migration and even the Covid death toll, could linger into 2024 and beyond.
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Data from the U.S. Postal Service and Census Bureau shows how the pandemic drove urban professionals who were able to work remotely — disproportionately Democrats — out of coastal, progressive cities to seek more space or recreational amenities in the nation’s suburbs and Sun Belt. This moved liberals out of electoral districts where Democrats reliably won by large margins into many purple regions that had the potential to swing with just small changes to the map.
And because partisan gerrymanderers carved up new districts before the extent of pandemic mobility data was understood, they could not neutralize the population shifts. And pollsters were none the wiser.
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The bottom line is there was not one singular event or action that caused the red wave to fizzle - it was many smaller events and actions which added up to a big rally against Republican candidates and their agenda.
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I agree with that Rick. The fall in the price of a gallon of gas had a lot to do with it. Trump choosing non-electable candidates like Walker, Diehl, Cox, Oz, Masters, Lake, Laxult and more also had a lot to do with it. Abortion probably persuaded a few independents to vote democratic, only 4% of independents listed abortion as their top tissue. There’s more, but I think you’re right on.
How about instead of calling it a red trickle, we call it a blue trickle. After all the democrats gained a senate seat and 2 governors while limiting their losses in the house to 9 seats. Compare that to the historical averages, which will have to be reworked for a president hovering around 40% overall job approval of 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats and 4.25 governorships. We should start calling this a blue trickle.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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...or, we could say that Dems held their ground. 
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perotista |
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I said on this site that this was coming. I think the civil war within the GOP began after Nov midterm, but has begun to pick up steam after the Georgia runoff. It’s a battle between avid Trumpers only interested in Trump and getting him nominated again, what I call MAGA statement Republicans. A battle between these Trumpers and more moderate, intelligent Republicans interested in winning elections, not making statements. These latter Republicans know Trump can’t win and if 2022 is a prime example, his chosen candidates can’t either. Almost all went down to defeat. Republicans fear Trump civil war could cost them in 2024 https://news.yahoo.com/republicans-fear-trump-civil-war-110000936.htmlIt’s my opinion that the Democrats should just sit back, relax and let all of this play out.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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pdx rick |
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It’s my opinion that the Democrats should just sit back, relax and let all of this play out. Agreed. We'll know how bad the Republican "civil war" is on January 3, 2023 when the Speaker of the House is voted on.
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Exactly Rick. Trump’s MAGA Republicans are losing power within the GOP. They’re in the minority today at 39% of the GOP. But they’re still the largest faction of many factions within the GOP. https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/bp8fjk5g14/econTabReport.pdfRemember, Trump won the GOP primaries and the nomination back in 2016 with 35% of the vote. Yeah, 3 Jan will be most interesting.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Pooh-Bah
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And because partisan gerrymanderers carved up new districts before the extent of pandemic mobility data was understood, they could not neutralize the population shifts. Like I said quite a while back, gerrymandering districts so you have a 5% advantage fails spectacularly when demographics change the voting so you need 6% to win. A lot of those engineered 5% districts go to the other side. Gerrymandering assumes static demographics for 10 years. Not happening here in America now. And they got the triple-whammy of educated professionals working from home in Red states, conservative anti-vaxers and anti-maskers dying, and over a million elderly voters dying from Covid-19.
Educating anyone benefits everyone.
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Jeffery J. Haas |
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Here’s how all Americans view the two major parties and some history. Keep in mind the favorable/unfavorable ratings are dynamic and change constantly. Party Images Stable After Midterm Elections https://news.gallup.com/poll/406892...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndicationThe bottom line, I’ve gone over hundreds of these, you find the bases of both major parties always view their party favorably usually in the mid to upper 90 percentile while the other party views the opposite party in single digits. At least since G.W. Bush’s second term. Independents usually view both major parties around 30% favorable which isn’t surprising. They for the most part don’t like partisan politics. Independents think both major parties should work together to get things done, compromise, play the old game of give and take and not stand on principle. It’s also independents, 75% of them want a viable third party. They’re sick of the two party monopoly as they view both major parties as governing only for their base and not for all of America.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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And because partisan gerrymanderers carved up new districts before the extent of pandemic mobility data was understood, they could not neutralize the population shifts. Like I said quite a while back, gerrymandering districts so you have a 5% advantage fails spectacularly when demographics change the voting so you need 6% to win. A lot of those engineered 5% districts go to the other side. Gerrymandering assumes static demographics for 10 years. Not happening here in America now. And they got the triple-whammy of educated professionals working from home in Red states, conservative anti-vaxers and anti-maskers dying, and over a million elderly voters dying from Covid-19. Gerrymandering has obvious political effects, but it can also have economic consequences. One 2018 study found that partisan redistricting impacts people’s ability to borrow money. The less competitive a district was, the less access to credit a person living in that district would have. Significantly skewed maps in states like Texas, Georgia, Florida and Ohio, which many people thought going in might be greater than the majority that Republicans would have in the House. And that seems to have been borne out. Florida, for example, probably gives Republicans four extra seats than they would have under a fairly drawn map. And so if, in fact, Republicans have a very thin majority in the House, it is likely to be due to gerrymandering.
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