The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative

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Senator Patty Murray, a Democrat, had consistently won re-election by healthy margins in her three decades representing Washington State. This year seemed no different: By midsummer, polls showed her cruising to victory over a Republican newcomer, Tiffany Smiley, by as much as 20 percentage points.

So when a survey in late September by the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group showed Ms. Murray clinging to a lead of just two points, it seemed like an aberration. But in October, two more Republican-leaning polls put Ms. Murray barely ahead, and a third said the race was a dead heat.

As the red and blue trend lines of the closely watched RealClearPolitics average for the contest drew closer together, news organizations reported that Ms. Murray was suddenly in a fight for her political survival. Warning lights flashed in Democratic war rooms. If Ms. Murray was in trouble, no Democrat was safe.

Ms. Murray’s own polling showed her with a comfortable lead, and a nonprofit regional news site, using an established local pollster, had her up by 13. Unwilling to take chances, however, she went on the defensive, scuttling her practice of lavishing some of her war chest — she amassed $20 million — on more vulnerable Democratic candidates elsewhere. Instead, she reaped financial help from the party’s national Senate committee and supportive super PACs — resources that would, as a result, be unavailable to other Democrats
For much of 2022, i argued with pollists that common sense tells us that the polls were inaccurate. Basing opinions and predictions solely on polling, while disregarding intuition, common sense and observation, leads to credibility issues for the pollists, in my opinion.

Naturally Rwingers were behind these false polls. The modern Rwinger will lie, cheat, in order to steal an election. They then foment an insurrection when they lose. To say that political Rwingers are emotionalluy unwell is an understatement.

As stories began to surface after the 2022 mid-term, the only voter fraud committed was by Republicans - the party that accuses Dems of voter fraud.

In psychology, there is a phenomena called projection. Projection is when someone accuses others of doing the behavior that they accuser does him/herself. Donald Trump is the most famous projectionist.

Contrarian, extraordinaire