Now that the 2022 mid-terms are in the rearview mirror, analysis of the election is trickling out. This is what we know to be true about the election:

  • Republicans and the media were focused on pundits and polls saying that history, inflation, gas prices and Biden's approval rating would sink the Democrats.


As things turned out, the Democrats did very well, historically speaking, for a party that holds the White House. They picked up a seat in the Senate and held all but one of their own governorships while flipping three (there are now 24 Democratic governors), and only giving up 10 House seats. Kevin McCarthy predicted a 60-seat pickup.

  • The notion that Joe Biden's popularity would be a key factor.


Nope, dead wrong. A president's approval rating has become a long-outmoded measure.

  • "GOP-inflected" polling pushed by right-wing media.


There were many problems of poll aggregation, especially when it relies on overtly partisan polls. Who even came close to calling this outcome? The staff at FiveThirtyEight? Real Clear Politics? Other pollsters? No. Michael Moore did.

Contrarian, extraordinaire