Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Prediction for the new Reep House

You’re certainly going to have an ongoing fight between Trump’s MAGA Republicans and the non-Maga Republicans. Until the midterms those non-MAGA Republicans were scared to death of Trump and his base knowing the MAGA bunch had the power to primary them out of office. The results of the midterms changed that. The fear once there isn’t so much. Most of Trump’s chosen candidates lost in the general election which gave some non-MAGA Republicans some balls. How much remains to be seen. But Trump’s and his MAGA followers’ power is fading. Can 50 or so Trump MAGA House members fighting for power fracture the GOP into what you state? Certainly.

Now non-MAGA Republican finally outnumber MAGA Republicans 47-36 Question 92.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/by8wjw1hur/econTabReport.pdf

Definitely, those 36% of Trump MGA Republicans can make life miserable for the rest of the GOP. They can and probably will make the function of the house totally chaotic inoperable institution.

I am going to make two predictions, and am willing to take odds on them for a reasonable wager: First, George Santos will not be a Member of Congress for very long (probably the first to go), and certainly will not fill out his term; second, McCarthy will not finish the 118th Congress as Speaker, and may not remain a Member after his fall.

There will be a public and sustained outcry over the incapacitation of ethics investigations and the purpose and machinations of the "Committee to Obstruct Justice", especially if it is peopled with insurrectionists, as appears likely.

McCarthy will have no control over the Republican caucus, and that is going to be immediately fatal to his "Sqeakership". There has already been a complete fiasco regarding the House Rules.

On the other hand, don't expect moderate Republicans to exert any control, either. They talk a big game, but they elected McCarthy and voted for the House Rules. They will be easy to keep in line and silent.

I think you’re correct on Santos. But I doubt McCarthy will do anything, that it may come from a recall vote in his district or from lawsuits and ethics charges filed in his districts by both parties. McCarthy will probably be removed as soon as he crosses the MAGA faction. A speaker with a pair, McCarthy certainly is not.

I’m however not certain about the public outcry. It probably will come from just one section or faction on the political landscape. Most independents, the largest of these factions has for the most part ceased paying attention to the goings on in Washington until the next election nears.

Republican moderates or the non-MAGA faction within the Republican Party and in the House aren’t the vocal type. The non-MAGA types aren’t all one united faction either, but many factions. They’re not headline seekers like the MAGA’s are. You’re probably right, most of these non-MAGA types will go along just to get along. But if they see another losing election in 2024 like they had in 2018, 2020, 2022, they might just grow a pair. I’d say right now they are silently hoping the Democrats are successful in ditching Trump for them. They don’t want to get their hands dirty doing the job they should be doing or did a long time ago. The non-MAGA Republicans are basically leaderless and rudderless.

I agree.

hmmm ... not a poll but a personal opinion with which I agree.

I think this is a reverse statement to Trump leads the MAGA-heads. As long as Trump is the only voice heard by THE BASE, there will not be anyone having the integrity to oppose him. Rep Cheney was the only loud voice to stand against Trump and all the other Republicans see what happened to her. She is sitting at home checking the weather on her phone. All the other voices heard are simpering equivocations making it unclear if they are against Trump or against bad weather.

When someone writes the next charter of profiles in courage, there will not be mention of any current Republicans. And the answer to the question why Republicans are leaderless is a complete lack of character, integrity, and courage to stand against Trump.

As expected

McCarthy won't force Santos out, saying he'll 'answer to the voters.' Voters won't get a say for 2 years.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mccarthy-wont-force-santos-saying-161502982.html

For lack of a better place to put this, this is novel, I hope this carries on, congress needs it.

Don't tell anyone, but Democrats and Republicans agree on fixing Congress and have even been working on it - It’s not just right-wing Republicans who think the House is broken — Democrats do too.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-tel...e-even-been-working-on-it-100026086.html

I couldn't tell from the article - do they think the same things need fixing?

That was my understanding. Although I’d imagine there are a bunch where one party thinks needs fixing that the other doesn’t. But if they can come together and fix what both think needs fixing, that is a good start. Yeah, the article didn’t go into detail, just that both parties agree congress is broken.

The article did say this, “Members of both parties even have some of the same ideas about how to do this — and finding consensus took years and happened away from the spotlight.”

The bad news is in this paragraph, “Timmons and Rep. Derek Kilmer, D-Wash., who chaired the committee, spoke to Yahoo News in a joint interview. The committee was created to last for two years, and was renewed for another two years, but is now defunct, with Republicans in control of the House.”

Perhaps it’s not the procedures and rules that need the most attention or fixing. Toning down the rhetoric, listening to what is said and proposed, talking to each other instead of shouting over one’s head. Stop putting on a show that brings you media attention, begin to work together more, go back to playing the old political game of give and take.

I think the broke problem began with the Hastert rule.

Like new congressman George Santos doesn't have enough red flags: Nobody has checked if he has been a US citizen for the last 7 years, one of the few constitutional requirements for representatives. Doesn't seem to be any birth certificate issued in New York, and he did tell a coworker he was born in Brazil. His immigration documents are probably as fictitious as the rest of his life. So nobody knows if he needs to be deported back to Brazil, where he faces fraud felony charges. That fact alone means either he lied on his immigration application, or nobody bothered to read it! Nobody even knows if that's his real name! Like most conmen, he has used several.

The one government entity not under Republican control that could do anything about all this is DOJ, and they are pretty busy at the moment.