Were the polls wrong or was it how pundits’ predictions wrong or how those polls were interpreted by them, the forecasters, prognosticators? RCP’s average polling showed Republicans winning the congressional generic poll by 2.5 points, the Republicans won the overall House of representative’s popular vote for the house by 2.8 points or Republicans 54,506,136 votes to Democratic 51,477,313 votes. You can’t get any closer than that. Keep in mind for a poll to be considered accurate it must fall within the margin of error or usually plus or minus 3 points of the actual results. Falling within 0.3 of a single point makes RCP and the polls very accurate.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html538 had the GOP winning 217 to the Democrats 205 with 13 seats as pure tossups. Also, that the Republicans had an 80% chance of winning between 214-246 seats. The Republicans did, they won 222 seats. 538 gave the GOP an 84% chance of regaining control of the house, the Republicans did regain control. 538 also said the end results should end up with the republicans having between 205-230 seats. The 222-213 final results fell within that 205-230 prediction.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/I predicted the GOP would gain between 13-15 seats, they gained 9. I was off by 4 seats. I’ll take that any day. That was better then the professional prognosticators or forecasters. Which by the way, I love to beat. Which we, the professionals and I based our predictions on the same polls.
The difference was who you assigned the 15 or so pure tossup seats to which party. I split mine 50-50 between parties. Apparently, most of the professionals decided to assign or give most of the tossups to the GOP. Sometimes they come closer, sometimes I do.
