Rick, you got me thinking, what was the pundits forecast, the average forecast, the consensus forecast for the 2022 midterm. I’m dangerous when thinking. What did the prognosticators predict? The average of all of them.
House – 232 R 205 D Missed the Republican actual gain by 10
Senate – 52 R 48 D Missed the Democrats gained one, not losing 2 missed by 3
What did the late polls show?
House – 228 R 207 D Missed the Republican actual gain by 6
Senate – 50 R 50 D Missed the Democratic gain by 1.
Actual results, House 222 R 213 D, senate 49 R 51 D. Note that neither the pundits nor the polls predicted a red wave. The definition of a wave election is the party out of power, not in control gaining 30 or more seats with regaining control of the house. The pundits predicted a gain of 19, the late polls 15. The actual gain by the Republicans was 9. The Democrats outperformed both the pundits, predictors and the late polls. Good for them.