Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Trump is done

If certain people are above the law, then the whole bases for American norms, values, and laws will be out the door. Trump will be convicted on more than one of his criminal deeds.

yep ... see Republican responses to Trumps alleged crimes ... he and they are above the law because they see anyone wishing to hold them accountable for alleged wrong doing is doing it out of political retribution .... therefore all (Republican) politicians are above the law

Don't hold your breathe.

DoJ is trying to get an ironclad case, a case so tight there can not be any whiff of ambiguity or any kind of doubt. My thinking is without the testimony of someone from the inner circle of advisors Trump will skate on J6. He will probably skate on MaL because apparently everyone has top secret documents. He has insulated himself from his business activities to the extent of plausible deniability. And further it is apparent Trump loyalists are willing to fall on their sword for him. And then there is jury nullification. (For he is the anointed one).

What is clear to objective people is not clear to cult members.

I predict .9 probability Trump will be indicted for something. I predict a max .2 probability he will be convicted of anything. Why, even Republicans who know he is guilty of crimes against America have already come to his rescue. Why would you think a prosecutor could empanel an honest objective jury without including any of these people who are willing to exonerate him? After all he said it himself, he could shoot someone on 5th Ave and not lose a single supporter.

Stormy Daniels and $130K



Michael Cohen mortgaged his house in 2016 to pay Stormy off at Trump’s request. Allen Weisselberg repaid Cohen thru the Trump Organization at $35K a month in “legal consulting” to pay Cohen back for the $30K and then Trump wrote the “consulting” off on his taxes!

To the contrary I am seeing and reading about him as much right now as we did back in the runup to the 2016 election. I almost know if he's had a bowel movement. He is still getting tons of free airtime while everyone has to pay.

Everyday, that incompetent criminal orange clown is in the news.

Yes, Trump is in the news a lot. But he lost any influence with independents prior to 2018 as the election results then, again in 2020 and 2022 prove. Trump received 46% of the independent vote in 2016, Republican congressional candidates 42% in 2018 and Trump himself 41% in 2020. Trump has also lost some of his influence and power within the Republican Party. Those Republicans who viewed Trump very favorably, very favorably I equate to being an avid Trumper fell from 65% in January 2022 down to 37% today. Those who state they’re MAGA Republicans, fell from 58% down to 39% over the same time period.

39% is still the largest faction within the Republican Party, still able to primary a lot of Republican out, still hold a lot of power. But nothing like prior to the 2022 midterm. Today 53% of Republicans want Trump to run for the presidency in 2024,41% no. 46% say they’d vote for Trump as their party’s nominee over any other Republican today, down from 57% in January. Trump is fading even within the Republican Party. Independents have always been against him.

Bottom line, Trump power and influence has faded immensely over the last year, even within the Republican Party. Trump is nothing more than a has been trying to hang on to his power that he once had. As time goes by, he has less and less power and influence, even within the GOP.

Many pundits are saying the same thing. I say the stats are misleading, and I am not the only one saying it. Democrats have been trying to promote the idea since 2015 when he rode down an escalator.

My analysis is not predicated on support from independents. All of the polls are geared for voting trends. My comments only reflect and are directed to the fact he is still the main driving force in the "Republican Party". Note the RNC has recently re-elected a MAGA supporter and loyalist. MAGA groups in several states have ensconced themselves in state legislatures and local governmental infrastructures. Still only a handful of elected Republicans will say anything adverse to Trump. And the House is now a base for a MAGA agenda ... revenge. And now House Republicans will be carrying iron.

So despite the fact the stats show Trump is losing favor among independents, he continues to be the driving force in Republican politics. Despite the fact Trump is under a lot of fire from legal authorities, MAGA still loves him as a poor victim of liberal Satanists. Despite the fact he is losing support among the donor class, he still has amassed a considerable political warchest.

Consider Pompeo, De Santis, and Haley. None of them has a grip on THE BASE. None of them has used the same language Trump has used to gain support of THE BASE. Elected Republicans have for the most part been apologists for the bigotry of THE BASE for the past 50 years. Until one of them gets the support of the white supremacists, Trump will remain the sole force in the Republican Party.

No doubt MAGA Republicans still love Trump. But they’re getting slowly smaller. Yes, Trump is still a force within the Republican Party. But that’s it. As for independents, I look at the favorable/unfavorable stats along with how they voted. Nothing like how independents voted to let you know how they feel about Trump. 46% of independents voted for Trump in 2016, 42% for Hillary Clinton, 12% third party against both major party candidates. Then in 2018, 42% of independents voted for Republican congressional candidates. The MAGA year candidates. 2020, 41% of independents voted for Trump.

Trump’s unfavorable rating among independents 57% in 2016, 58% in 2018, 60% in 2020 and 58% in 2022. 47% of independents voted for Republicans in 2022, but you can break that down into Trump Republican Chosen candidates, 42% and non-Trump chosen candidates 52%. A whopping 10-point difference in how independents voted there. Many Trump chosen candidates lost because of the independent vote, Tshibaka, Oz, Mastriano, Cox, Diehl, Bolduc, Walker, Lake, Masters, Laxalt and many more. Meanwhile non-Trump chosen candidates were winning and winning because of independents. Which as I have been saying, Trump is the biggest asset the Democrats have going for them. Trump enables the Democrats to attract and win the independent vote. Whereas, they might not without Trump.

Trump has a threshold of around 40% of the nationwide electorate. No higher. You may consider that a lot, but you have 60% against him. Trump isn’t about to win any national election and most of Trump’s chosen candidates probably won't win either. If Trump chosen candidates are going to win, they’ll win in deep red states and districts.

My comments have never been about supporting the contention Trump either is or is not a viable candidate for public office. My comments are the result of an analysis of Trump's position as leader of a huge chunk of the party formerly known as the Republican Party. I am not in the business nor do I have an agenda to promote one candidate over another of any party. I also am not in the business of telling either party what they are doing wrong or right regarding anything.

Therefore I don't really care what Republicans or Democrats should be considering when deciding who should be the next candidate. If they make poor decisions then that is on them. I am certainly not going to tell the Republican Party they are doing harm to the party by endorsing Trump. I'll let the party machinery do their thing and when it breaks ... o well.

While you are probably concerned about the direction of the Republican Party as your default party of choice, I rely on the historical record which suggests progressivism is the natural result of historical inertia. So in the long term I am not concerned, as I know progressivism will prevail, whether good bad or ugly.

However in the short term I am concerned. We have seen the complete erosion of American values once held by both conservatives and liberals, now held mainly by only liberals. One hundred years form now historians will have to ask if the current trend to authoritarianism is simply a blip or a mainstream danger to Democracy. While I embrace a political model of the Greek city states, we can look about and not find any extant. We therefore must decide on what form of government best codifies a "national" identity. The Founders for all of their shortcomings, but in a moment of exquisite wisdom saw Democracy as the only real choice for All Men. I abhor the efforts of some Republicans to destroy the foundations of Democracy. And that is my concern, that some Americans fain patriotism while they publicly attempt to deconstruct the very State which allowed them the freedom to voice their poison.

While we may agree on a number of specific items, we have different opinions and beliefs regarding government. The Federal government is the glue which binds All Men into a single entity, and it is obligated by contractual agreement to perform certain duties. As long a the Federal government sustains their mandated responsibilities, I will remain in support of the Constitution and it's child, the Federal government.

Representative democracy, the founders, or should I say a fair bunch of them, including Jefferson, were not enamored of direct or pure democracy however they did see the strength of representative democracy and fulfilled that aim by enshrining the vote, at least to the class of people that they SAW as practical, namely white landowning men.
It fell to future generations OF progressives to extend that right to women, people of all faiths and races, the landed and the tenant alike.

This was the enshrining of "e pluribus unum", out of many, one.
And it is this very unity which is now being torn down by the political Right in this nation, in thought, word and deed.