True. I can’t tell you what will happen in Nov 2024 or in the primaries when they begin a year from now. I can tell you the likely outcome if these things were to happen today. Now one can look at trends from the polls for 6 months to a year and apply that trend to the future. Trends however can change.

I’ll say this, going by today’s numbers that Trump would win the Republican Primaries due to his very loyal MAGA faction while all other factions within the GOP are divided. Can the approximately 60% of Republicans who aren’t MAGA Trumpers unite to defeat MAGA Trumpers 40%. I don’t think so. Remember Trump won the Republican Party nomination winning around 35% of the primary vote in a very large field back in 2016. On the Democratic side, if Biden decides to run again, I don’t see where any democrat would challenge him and it would be folly to do so. Sitting presidents who were challenged, all have lost in the general. Truman decided not to run for reelection when Kefauver challenged him in 1952. LBJ joined Truman in deciding not to run again in 1968 when challenged by McCarthy. Reagan challenged Ford in 1976, Ford lost to Carter. Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter in 1980, Carter lost to Reagan. Buchanan challenged G.H.W. Bush in 1992, Bush lost to Clinton.

I think the best scenario for the Democrats would be for Biden to announce he isn’t running again late this year. Let a fresh, young face come to the fore.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.