Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Why any state would "turn red" is ridiculous. The way Republicans treat minorities is outrageous. That treatment is not gong to change any time soon - Republican treatment of minorities will only get worse.

Sorry but I am not seeing a dearth of black Angelenos except for two specific varieties: Bloods and Crips.
THEY were the ones doing the most moving out of L.A. and when that happened, the pitched street battles and drive-by shootings between the rival gangs gradually began to dissipate, at least in comparison to the Eighties, when I was making a part time living from shooting news footage of that very thing.
Don't forget, yours truly was in the street with a camera during the 1992 riots.

And you forgot Palmdale, which is where you can find a good many displaced Bloods and Crips today.

I don’t know Rick, I’m a numbers guy and a non-partisan. I see a trend over the last 15 or so years where the portion of the black vote who vote Republican has grown from 4% to 13%. The portion of the Hispanic vote from 26% to 39%. Where that growth is varies from state to state. Hispanic and black men are much more liable to vote Republican than Hispanic and black women. 17% of black men voted republican in 2022 vs 10% of black women. 45% of Hispanic men voted Republican vs. 33% of Hispanic women which follows the overall gender vote of 56% of men voting Republican, 45% of women voting republican.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house

Maybe it’s more man vs. women thing? The thing is the 13% of blacks voting republican in 2022 is the highest since 1972 when 15% of blacks voted Republican. The 39% of Hispanics voting Republican in 2022 was also the highest since 1972 with the lone exception of 2004 when G.W. Bush received 40% of the Hispanic vote. The 40% of the white vote the Democrats received in 2022 was a bit below the historical average they normally receive of the white vote going back to 1976 when the Democrats received 48%. The Historical average since 1972 is 42% of the white vote. The last time the Democrats won the white vote was in 1964.

These are the numbers, as to the reasons why, I assume with each election they’re different. The reasons are dynamic and change as do the numbers, percentages.

Interesting tidbits on congress.
There are 52 Hispanic or Latino Members in Congress. Of the Members of the House, 32 are Democrats
and 13 are Republicans. Of the seven Hispanic Senators, three Republicans, four Democrats
There are 59 African American Members, Fifty-six serve in the House. Fifty-four of the African American House Members, are Democrats and two are Republicans. Two of the Senators are Democrats and
one is Republican.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46705#:~:text=in%20the%20House.-,Hispanic%2FLatino%20American%20Members,and%20seven%20in%20the%20Senate.

Yes of course, that's the black men who aren't or weren't incarcerated.*
Ever wonder what it takes to get your rights restored in some of these red states if you're a black man?

*There's a lot of them, almost a quarter of all black males in fact.

For me Jeffrey, what’s this trend means is that for those solely relying on the change in demographics to make the Democratic Party a permanent majority party may be in for a rude surprise. I went back to 1972, women always voted more Democratic than men since then regardless of race. During this time 1972-2022, republicans have always won the men’s vote with the lone exception of 1992 when Democrats won the men’s vote 41-39, Bill Clinton over G.H.W. Bush, but Perot received 21% of the men’s vote that year. Without Perot, the GOP probably would have won the men’s vote that year also. Women voted Republican in 1980, 84, 88, but voted Democratic ever since. Sometimes by huge margins. I’d say the republican party has become the party of men, the democratic party the party of women regardless of race. This is speaking in generalities as sometime the winning gap has been as close as a point or two, sometimes as much as 10 points. Still, we expect women to vote democratic, men to vote republican.

One other thing, Hispanics. The improvement of the GOP among Hispanics for 2022 occurred mostly in the border states. Texas, 45% of Hispanics voted Republican, 42% in New Mexico, 41% in Arizona. Then in Florida 58% of Hispanics voting republican. The rest of the states were within a point or two of the national average, 39%. That 39% was the highest in congressional elections since 1972 when these stats began and the second highest since 1972 in presidential. G.W. Bush received 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004.

Will this trend continue in 2024? Can the republicans get more than 13% of the black vote? Can they receive more than 39% of the Hispanic vote? Will black and Hispanic men continue their drift toward the GOP while black and Hispanic women remain loyal to the Democrats? That depends on the candidates and the country’s situation at the time in my opinion.

I’ve been going over the Republican primary polls. I’m not sure that DeSantis will announce that he will be seeking the Republican Presidential nomination contrary to everyone else. If he does, I think DeSantis will wait until late in the year to see if Trump is indicted in New York or Georgia or by the DOJ. If Trump is, that will be when DeSantis jumps in. If not, DeSantis may give the GOP presidential nomination a pass. This is just a gut feeling on my part. Here are how the polls show the Republican presidential nomination process between Trump and DeSantis. Haley is below 5% in all of these, so I left her out.

Nationally Trump 42% DeSantis 30
Pennsylvania Trump 49% DeSantis 31%
Florida Trump 27% DeSantis 52%
New Hampshire Trump 58% DeSantis 17%
Virginia Trump 39% DeSantis 28%
Arizona Trump 42% DeSantis 28%
California Trump 28% DeSantis 37%
Kansas Trump 30% DeSantis 17%
South Carolina T 43% DeSantis 28%

These are the only states with recent polls on the Republican Presidential nomination process. DeSantis leads in only 2, Florida and California. My gut, nothing rational or in writing or even being talked about. I don’t think DeSantis will take the plunge unless Trump is indicted. Then DeSantis would look like the ideal alternative to Trump. DeSantis will continue to campaign like he’s running, but won’t announce unless Trump is indicted. There’s no way for DeSantis to win otherwise as the MAGA, Trump supporters within the GOP is the largest faction probably around 45%. Time will tell what happens. I’ll also add, if Trump is indicted, there will be plenty of other besides DeSantis take the plunge.

LOL

Should Trump win nomination and go on to win election, and if he had been indicted and/or convicted, he would take oath in prison, then immediately pardon himself .... and all is well.

Now should you believe this scenario is impossible ... all I need do is point out how an insurrection was impossible, because it can't happen in America.

I think you fear Trump way too much. It takes more than the 28% or so of the national electorate which makes up the Republican Party’s base to elect a president. Of that 28% only around 40-45% are MAGA, Trump supporters. You do have Republican leaning independents that may be added on, that would be another 15%, but would all the Republican leaning independents vote for Trump? They wouldn’t.

Would those Republicans and republican leaning independents who dislike Trump vote democratic? Some would, some would vote third party, some would still vote for Trump, some would stay home. Unless the democrats come up with a candidate more disliked than Trump, which I suppose is a possibility. They came up with Hillary Clinton in 2016. I see no path to victory for Trump. In fact, what I see if Trump is the GOP nominee and the democrats offer a decent candidate acceptable to independents is the Democrats having a banner 2024 in which they not only retain the presidency, but retain the senate and regain the house. A Trump candidacy would be the best thing ever to happen to the democrats in 2024. I dislike Trump, but I don’t fear him. I don’t fear the MAGA portion of the GOP either. Trump and MAGA may be powerful within the GOP ranks, but not nationwide. Just look at the results of the 2022 general election in which most Trump endorsed, chosen MAGA candidates lost. In a year in which the Republicans had everything going for them. Even within the GOP, there’s a lot of cracks and fissures centering around Trump. Many republicans want to win elections, general elections and not just make a statement in their primaries. Could those non-MAGA Republican coalesce around a candidate other than Trump, they could. But they’re too busy fighting among themselves, too disunited.

It can't happen in America.

I think that was your argument for everything Trump did.

I believe you were one of the many people who concluded prior to 2016 Clinton would win, because the polls .... it also seems I was one of a few who warned Trump support may be more than the polls show, and especially after Comey skewed the election.

Yes I fear Trump because I know what he is capable of ... everything.

Your arguments for why Trump is bad for the party is simply whistling in the dark, but guess what, your argument is the same as the one supporters use .... his rallies were so big he had to win. He was bad for the party in 2016 and 2020, and now. Doesn't mean anything.

What matters is the current state of play. Trump is leading the polls ( throwing a bone to the polls). He still controls THE BASE. He (and by extension THE BASE) continues to extort moderate Republicans (read that as rational). The House Republican caucus now can carry weapons on the House floor. So during certification they will be armed. A significant number of states are now rejecting rational plans for voter security in favor of chaos, by rejecting ERIC, passing voter disenfranchisement bills, appointing election deniers to offices which control elections, etc. By 2024 many states will be able to control the outcome of the vote, either legally or illegally. Barring a rigged election by Trump supporting Republicans, should he lose in spite of the rigging, he will still have an avenue to overthrow the results by staging another coup, and now he will have inside help (armed House members).

I know ... it can't happen in America. Words written on a beach while a hurricane lands.

I've said similar things to our friend Pero but he just comes back with more reams of statistics.
That tells me he's not concerned about piddling things like would be dictators catching the lucky breaks they need to slap the iron yoke on the necks of 335 million Americans, probably because he is so convinced that it can't happen here.

I would shudder to think he just thinks that, "if that's what voters want, so be it."
I hope that's not the case, I really do, but in any case, my own view is that democracy dies when I die, if I have any power or say in the matter and I know I am not alone either.

Trump IS the American version of Putin and so is Ron DeSantis.
And more people had better wake up and stop whistling
It Can't Happen Here.