Trump controls around 40-45% of the Republican Party. But that’s enough for him to win the nomination as those oppose to him are way too divided to stop him. ALA 2016 when Trump won the nomination with 35% of the GOP vote. Trump is currently at 43% in the GOP nomination polls against a whole lot of non-announced maybe candidates. Which he’ll probably stay close to that all the way to the convention. Haley isn’t about to defeat Trump. I don’t think DeSantis will either as DeSantis as many pointed out is Trump 2.0 without the baggage along with the childish antics and schoolyard bullying tactic. The probability of Trump being the GOP nominee is high today. But there’s a long way to go.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...blican_presidential_nomination-7548.html

Now look at how Biden is doing against a whole lot of non-announced candidates.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...cratic_presidential_nomination-7550.html

If Biden decide to run again, no one will challenge him as to do so is a death knell to a sitting president. The polls give Biden a slight lead today over Trump with a very long time to go before Nov 2024.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

But Trump has stayed fairly hidden from public view, off TV. He hasn’t been in front of the tube very much to remind voters why they dislike him so much. Give it time, Trump will defeat Trump if he runs again in 2024. Just like Trump defeated Trump in 2020, not Biden. Like Trump’s chosen candidates in 2022 lost helping the Democrats turn what should have been a red wave into a red trickle or a blue trickle, take you pick.
Biden also has a small lead against DeSantis

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ral_election_desantis_vs_biden-7967.html

Biden has a slightly bigger lead against Haley.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_haley_vs_biden-8127.html

Biden has a 44% overall job approval today, he should be 5-10 points behind if it weren’t for Trump. Trump is keeping Biden afloat and slightly in the lead. Trump is chugging along with a 36% favorable among independents, 58% unfavorable. Not the type of favorable/unfavorable rating that would imply Trump has a chance of winning them. Unless his opponent is right around that 36/58% favorable/unfavorable. The one I’d be worried about is DeSantis, independents haven’t made up their mind about him yet. Today DeSantis is at 36/38 favorable/unfavorable with 26% undecided, not sure or asking who the heck is DeSantis. Me, I’ll just sit back and relax and watch. Worry, no. Fear, no. Trump isn’t about to win anymore general elections. The caveat, that is unless the Democrats screw up and nominate a candidate as disliked as much as Trump is by independents. Like in 2016.

And for the record, yes I thought Clinton would win in 2016. I knew the polls showed Trump tied with Clinton in Pennsylvania, Trump ahead by 1 in Michigan with Wisconsin having no recent polls, the last one was 20 Oct 2016 with Clinton having a 6-point lead. I went by history and gave all 3 tossup states to Hillary Clinton. I got them wrong. I should have paid closer attention to the polls. They were there for everyone to see, but like the professional pundits, I ignored them.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.