Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Who is Kevin McCarthy?

In response to a quip in a post stating, "most people have no idea who Kevin McCarthy even is" Pero responded by doing a deep dive into the numbers and found this quip to be correct.

Perotista's post:

The sad point to the above is that a lot of voters are making decisions for America who have no idea who they are electing to make decisions for us. This very sad phenomena is one of the reasons that a-holes like Donald Trump get elected.

Yeah Rick. I’ve taken swing voters, independents back to 1952 with the information provided by both Gallup and Pew Research. What I found is that these swing voters vote for the candidate they like best as a person or find the most charismatic with one lone exception. 2012 when Obama was seen more favorable, likable than Romney, but Romney won independents 51-48. Biden’s 13-point advantage among independents was larger than most. Trump won them by 4 in 2016, Romney by 3 in 2012, Obama by 8 in 2008, G.W. Bush by a single point in both 2000 and 2004. To best Biden’s 13-point margin in winning independents, you must go back to 1984 when Reagan won them by 26 points, 62-36 over Mondale and in 1980 55-31 over Carter with John Anderson receiving 12% of the swing vote.

Also interesting is the candidate who won the swing vote, independents also won the election going back to 1952 with 2012 once again being the lone exception. In 2012 Democrats who voted made up 38% to the Republicans 32% with independents coming in at 29%. The large democratic turnout made the independent vote irrelevant in 2012 or if not irrelevant, it wasn’t a determining factor. Whereas in recent elections such as 2020, 2016, 2008, 2004, 2000 and on back after Reagan, who independents voted for determined the winner.

I have always said for most independents, not all, their choice is a popularity or beauty contest. Trump was the ugly duckling in 2020, Hillary Clinton in 2016. Obama had charisma, he won twice. G.W. Bush won twice over two statues as a down home boy without much charisma. Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan had charisma up the ying yang, both won twice and so on.

Now what about 2024. I think it’s shaping up more as a 2016 election than a 2020 election. Many reasons for that I won’t get into. This is long enough.

What I find interesting is that of all of the elections you cite, only 2000 and 2016 did the person who eventually become POTUS win with only the electoral college. Otherwise, every election the person who eventually became POTUS won the popular vote AND the electoral vote become POTUS.

Can you do an analysis of the 2000 and 2016 elections with respect to independent voters? Other than winning the electoral college, I want to examine if there were any other factors for those two election years to determine if they have anything else in common. Thanks Pero.

What factors (reasons) did independents vote the way they did those years?

2016 is easy, 2000 was a long time ago. Independents disliked Hillary Clinton more than they did Trump. Questions 10 and 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

As to why, independents viewed Clinton as aloof, an elitist, a know it all. Independents viewed Trump as being obnoxious, uncouth, rude. They didn’t like nor want either one, as a result Trump won independents 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates. Who knows how many stayed home not liking their choices saying to hades with it? Still if Clinton hadn’t been so lazy, she let Trump both outwork and out campaign her in 2016. Trump made 116 campaign visits, stop, rallies etc. to Clinton 71. Clinton’s 71 looks larger than what it was as it includes fund raisers in deep blue California and New York. Most important is in the deciding states, Trump made 5 Trips to Wisconsin, Clinton none, Michigan it was Trump 6 Clinton 1. Pennsylvania was closer, 8 for Trump, 5 for Clinton. Even in electoral vote rich Florida, Clinton let Trump out campaign her there 13 to 8.

Clinton had a very inept campaign strategy to boot. She wanted to outperform Obama in the electoral college. Thus, she spent a lot of time and money in states that she realistically had no chance of winning. Media coverage also helped Trump; his outrageousness made Trump the number one news story almost every day relegating Clinton to the back pages. Trump would call into every morning talk show whether they supported him or not. Clinton on the other hand only went on shows that supported her 100% like The View. Trump probably got a billion dollars’ worth of free media this way. Clinton out raised and out spent Trump 1.191 billion to 646.8 million.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/

In other words, Clinton relied on paid TV political commercials whereas Trump was into personal appearances and of course the free media attention. There’s a lot more than just this, the short answer is independents disliked Clinton for various reasons more than they did Trump although they disliked both. Clinton lost the election; Trump didn’t win it if that makes sense. I haven’t seen such an inept campaign since G.H.W. Bush’s in 1992. Clinton acted and performed like she expected the presidency to be handed to her without working for it. Another reason may be that in 2016 Democrats made up 39% of the electorate to the GOP’s 32%. A 7-point advantage. But that 7-point advantage was cut to 4 in actual voter turnout 36-32. Had Democrats turnout maintained that 7-point advantage, I have no doubt Hillary would have won.

Which is also the short answer for 2000. The democrats held an 8-point advantage in party affiliation 37-29 in 2000, but only a 4-point advantage among those who voted 39-35. Why independents would vote for G.W. Bush over Gore, probably had a lot to do with Bush’s down-home boy persona vs. the statue. It was much easier to like G.W. as a person than Gore who was stiff, coming across perhaps as being too rigid. The statue vs. the down-home likable guy.

Great post Pero.

Kevin McCarthy, who???

I will retype my current prediction. Trump will become GOP candidate. He may become the first person to win occupancy of the WH who has been convicted. His first order of business will be to pardon himself (yes frak the Constitution) and all "patriots" of Jan6.

Am I dreaming???? Is this some farfetched movie script?

Nope. It can only happen in America. We are lost.

Many on the right hate America and its democracy in its current form - and because this is the case for many in the GOP, Trump will get the GOP nomination. There are far many more that love America and its democracy that will thwart Trump's accession to the White House.

They have to show up at the voting booth.

Here's my rebuttal. Consider a Trump - De Santis ticket. Republican appeal to both the MAGA-heads and real Republicans, not to mention the stupidity appeal to independents. Now that;s just the head liners. In support of the crazy is Republican efforts to "rig" the election with voter laws which will impact Democrat voters. Remember, all Republicans need in battleground states is mere thousands of Democrat voters to be disenfranchised or not show up for Republicans to win, and not to mention possibility of simply throwing out blocks of votes Republican election boards don't like or want counted. Then we have the judicial system which can no longer be counted on to deliver fair legal opinions.

Am I concerned? It's rhetorical and you betcha I am concerned. Its the giuoco piano of political machinations which may be the winner and Democracy is not on the list.

I'm afraid I just view it as MAGA+MAGA wannabe.
DeSantis is not a real Republican, he's a wannabe Trump.