Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

I think 2024 will be more like 2016 than 2020. The reason is independents which you call uninformed voters. Which probably for the most part, you’re correct as they don’t pay much attention to politics until an election nears. In 2016 Trump won independents 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party. 6% of the total vote went to unknown and unheard-of candidates like Johnson, Stein, Castle, McMullin etc. None of them had any money, no political ads, no way to get their message out. They were only a third name on the ballot that wasn’t Trump nor Clinton.

In 2024 you’ll have RFK Jr., a well-known last name who seems to be raising some good money along with whoever the no labels party runs which will probably be a prominent politician such as Manchin, Hogan or someone akin to them. The no labels party has been promised some good money from donors if they run a candidate. All of this very unlike 2016 when third parties were outspent 1.9 billion for the two major parties, Clinton 1.2 billion, Trump 700 million rounding off to 2 million dollars for all third parties. Compare that to 2020, Biden 1.6 billion, Trump 1.1 billion or a total of 2.7 billion to third parties total spending of 3 million plus change. The two major parties gets their funds, their tens and sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars from corporations, wall street firms, lobbyist, special interests, super, mega, rich individual donors, etc.

Yes, it’s very early and third-party candidates have a habit of slipping lower and lower in the polls the closer we get to an election. But who will these today third-party stating voters vote for? Unknown at this time. Although I do agree, Trump’s trials and possible convictions next year will probably be the turning point in Biden’s favor. Many will probably leave Trump, but won't go to Biden. They'll probably go to third party candidates or stay home since they detest Biden and are pro-Trump. either way, it votes taken from Trump which is a huge plus for Biden.

To all of you who don't want Biden for a litany of reasons, please take note of how one well known conservative pundit reacted to Trump's candidacy in 2016:

"I am endorsing Hillary, and all her lies and all her empty promises," O'Rourke continued. "It's the second-worst thing that can happen to this country, but she's way behind in second place. She's wrong about absolutely everything, but she's wrong within normal parameters."


Take a very long look at those last four words...wrong within normal parameters.
What he's saying is, Trump is nowhere near normal parameters, nowhere near rational, nowhere near sane. P.J. O'Rourke's brand of conservatism morphed into a brand of conservatism being remade by fear, with Trump as the ringleader in that effort. There's only one outcome for right wing politics remade by fear and that outcome is dictatorial fascism, the likes of which even O'Rourke could not predict if he was still alive.

Please, even if you despise Biden, even if you're a Republican, even if you're a hardcore socialist, please try to remember the need for the United States to stay within normal parameters.
Because if we don't, it may very well cost us the world.

Jeffery, I’m positive there’s not a single person on this site that wants Trump to win the next presidential election. It isn’t anyone on this site that you have to worry about. But when you look at all of America outside of this site that’s may be a different story. Going over a myriad of polls and articles especially those polls which gives the option of third party or other category, will not vote and undecided, what they show, making this simple, around a third of voters in Trump’s corner, a third or so in Biden’s corner and a third that don’t want neither one to become the next president stating they’ll vote third party or not vote at all. It’s this later third that will decide the election.

For them this isn’t a binary or a zero-sum election between Biden and Trump. They have other options such as voting third party which many will or just staying home and not voting because they dislike and don’t want neither major party’s candidate to be the next president. I think it’s high past time for everyone to start listening to what most Americans want or don’t want when it comes to next year’s election. Perhaps it way too late for that. Regardless, as I said before, I think Trump sitting in a courtroom as the defendant in a criminal trial or two will be the deciding factor.

Election update, Trump and Biden are still in a basic tie in only a two-candidate race and are still in a basic tie in a 4 candidate race giving the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. Two candidate race, Trump 46.7%, Biden 45.1%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

4 candidate race, Biden 36%, Trump 35%, RFK Jr. 19%, West 8%, Other 1%. Question 5 below the narrative.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3881

But Biden has a problem - Poll: A majority of Democrats want new candidate to challenge Biden in 2024 primary

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-a-m...nge-biden-in-2024-primary-100031348.html

The generic congressional ballot is also tied. Each party has 23 at risk of switching seats up for next year’s elections.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2024_generic_congressional_vote-7969.html

With Manchin’s retirement, West Virginia is now rated as solid republican, a gain of at least one seat for the Republicans. Ohio, Montana, Arizona currently held Democratic seats are all rated pure tossups. There are no Republican held seats at risk for next year’s election in the senate.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/consensus-2024-senate-forecast

This brings up an interesting scenario that I think if more probable than not.

Ex-Bush Strategist Predicts Exactly When Donald Trump Will Be Convicted

https://news.yahoo.com/ex-bush-stra...7.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=0_00

Interesting poll/article on young people voting in 2024. Although this poll just addresses the 18-29 age group, lack of enthusiasm to go vote in 2024 for all age groups is low compared to 2020. But what this shows is 49% of the age group 18-29 said they’d definitely vote compared to 65% who voted in 2020.

Younger voters appear less likely to vote in 2024, despite previous record: Survey

https://news.yahoo.com/younger-voters-appear-less-likely-150828544.html?.tsrc=1026

Yesterday, December 12, 2023, NY’s top court issued an order for redistricting by February was first filed on June 28, 2022. This decision could endanger the seats of five GOP Congressmen, as well as flipping the seat recently vacated by George Santos.

Can you say Speaker Hakeem Jeffries?

This would so frustrate the MAGAts attempt to impeach ol' Joe.

Today, looking at the House, both major parties have 23 seats at risk of switching. Where the districts are depending on voter turnout, even though the at-risk seats are even, the democrats in my opinion stand a better chance of retaining most of their at-risk seats than the republicans do. A gain of 5 seats would be a reasonable prediction at this point for the democrats. The republicans currently have a 220-213 advantage with 2 vacant seats. A gain of 5 seats in November of next year depending on the results of the two special elections this year would give the democrats between 218-220 seats and control. Of course, all of this will change as time moves on.

The senate is another matter. West Virginia is a lost cause; it will go republican. Ohio and Montana are two more states leaning in the GOP direction with no currently held republican seats at risk, they’re safe. If this were to hold, the republicans would regain control of the senate with the democrats in control of the house. They switch control of the chambers each now holds a majority.

Presidential wise, Trump leads in the popular vote in just a two-candidate race, 47.2% to 44.1% over Biden. Which means the pollster gave the respondent only two choices, Trump or Biden, no independent or third-party choice.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Electoral college wise, Biden leads Trump 247-235 with 4 states in the tossup column, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast

But in a poll that includes independent RFK Jr. Cornell West, you have Trump 41%, Biden 35%, RFK Jr. 16%, West 4%,

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24130797/cnn-poll-on-2024.pdf

Another has Trump 38%, Biden 35%, RFK Jr. 17%, West 3%, Stein 3%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us11152023_regvoter_ufse25.pdf

Interesting that 20-25% of all Americans are as of today planning on voting third party or independent if the rematch of Biden vs. Trump occurs which seems inevitable. This speaks of the dislike and unwantedness of many Americans, especially independents who don’t want neither major party candidate to become their next president. Again, all of this will change over time. 61% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, question 14. 56% don’t want Trump to run again either, question 15.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_y2MuS3t.pdf

Hence, the high third party/independent vote when those polled are given the choice of more candidates than just Biden and Trump.

While there maybe 23 seats that may flip on November '24, I'm talking next month in January '24. Five GOP seats are going away in NY.