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Dec 6th, 2017
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It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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jgw |
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Election polls - Where things stand as of 11 Oct 2023 Republican primaries – Trump 58%, 45 point lead https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...blican_presidential_nomination-7548.htmlPresidential Trump vs. Biden – Trump 1-point lead over Biden https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.htmlGeneric congressional ballot – Republicans 1-point lead https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2024_generic_congressional_vote-7969.htmlsenate forecast – Republicans are heavily favored to gain West Virginia from the democrats which it seems most democrats will get their wish and be rid of Manchin. The remaining 3 states currently listed as tossups are all held by democrats or an independent caucusing with the democrats, Ohio, Brown, Brown slightly favored, Montana, Tester, republican slightly favored, Arizona, Sinema, pure tossup. There are no republican senate seats at risk of switching, only currently held democratic seats. https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/consensus-2024-senate-forecast
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Joined: Aug 2004
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It seems to me, that for Trump to be leading Biden in the polls, is either because the polls are skewed, or there are democrats now voting for Trump.
Our country is doomed!
Good doesn't always win!
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Joined: Aug 2004
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It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
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It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,167 Likes: 254 |
It seems to me, that for Trump to be leading Biden in the polls, is either because the polls are skewed, or there are democrats now voting for Trump.
Our country is doomed! Or, a large segment of the voting population is currently ignoring the polls and not responding yet.
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com
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pdx rick |
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It seems to me, that for Trump to be leading Biden in the polls, is either because the polls are skewed, or there are democrats now voting for Trump.
Our country is doomed! No, democrats aren’t voting for Trump. It’s Biden whom independents have soured on. Remember Biden won independents in 2020 by 13 points, 54-41 with 5% voting third party against both Biden and trump. The average among independents today is Trump 31%, Biden 27%, other 12%, not sure 6%, will not vote 23%. The last thing independents want is a rematch in 2024. A lot of independents who didn’t vote in 2016 because of their disliked and unwantedness of both Trump and Clinton, went to the polls in 2020 to vote against Trump, for Biden. Although their votes weren’t necessarily for Biden, just against Trump. In 2024 most of those independents voters who stayed home in 2016 but voted in 2020 are planning on staying home again in 2024. They refuse to choose between in their minds, two unwanted and disliked candidates. There’s no love out there, especially among independents for either Trump or Biden. Even among Democrats, there’s no excitement for Biden. But I imagine the hatred for Trump will get them to the polls. You have this - Two-thirds of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters surveyed by CNN and SSRS from 25 to 31 August said they would prefer someone other than Biden. Among those voters, 18% specified another candidate but the overwhelming majority – 82% – said they “just want to see someone besides” the current president. The above taken from: Majority of likely Democratic voters say party should ditch Biden, poll shows https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/07/joe-biden-poll-2024-election-democratsThe bottom line is Trump is just as disliked and unwanted as he was in 2020. But Biden has dropped down to Trump level in the dislike and unwanted to become the next president column. There’re way too many reasons for this for me to go into without writing a book. The major cause of the tie between Trump and Biden is independents, the election deciders. They want someone else other than either Trump or Biden. It’s that simple. But they’re not going to get it. The result, many will stay home and not vote, others who do vote will vote third party against both Biden and Trump, ALA 2016.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Thanks for explaining perotista. I didn't realize the independents were so dispersed.
2024 is going to be a nail biter while our democracy hangs in the balance. I know what my gut is telling me, but I hope it's wrong!
Good doesn't always win!
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Thanks for explaining perotista. I didn't realize the independents were so dispersed.
2024 is going to be a nail biter while our democracy hangs in the balance. I know what my gut is telling me, but I hope it's wrong! Most partisans of both major parties think independents as moderates or centrist. Which isn’t the case. You have independents way to the right of the Republican Party and way to the left of the Democratic Party. However, independents can be placed into basically 3 different categories, independents lean republican, independents lean democratic and true or pure independents with no leans. Then to throw a monkey wrench into what I said above, you find quite a lot of independents who support the republicans on some issues, oppose them on other issues. Same for supporting and opposing the democrats, they’ll support them on some issues and oppose them on others. Independents can truly be a wildcard where it's dangerous to forecast where they’ll come down or vote for. This idea that independents are somewhere in-between both major parties ideological wise isn’t true. They can be conservative on some issues, liberal on others. As an example, you’ll find a lot of independents pro-choice and pro-2nd amendment at the same time. You’ll find a lot of them very fiscal conservative, but socially liberal or vice versa. Only 32% of independents approve of the overall job Biden is doing 59% disapprove, 30% of independents have a positive view of Trump, 59% a negative view. 62% of independents think Biden is too old to run for a second term, but 65% have grave concerns about Trump and his legal problems. To top all of this off, 69% of independents don’t want Biden to run again, 64% don’t want Trump to run again either. So, where independents finally come down is anyone’s guess. All I can tell you is that today, they dislike and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to become the next president. What they’re or I should say most independents are looking for is someone other than Biden or Trump. It could be RFK Jr. running as an independent or it could be whoever the candidate is for the no labels party. Or they may decide to vote for who they think is the lesser of two evils between Trump and Biden, the least worse candidate, the candidate they want to lose the least although they want both to lose. Who knows?
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,167 Likes: 254
It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
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It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,167 Likes: 254 |
The only difference between RFK Jr and any generic NoLabels candidate is the amount of Qanon they believe in.
NoLabels is basically the Party of Harlan Crow and Clarence Thomas and RFK Junior is Timothy Mellon and that Overstock dot Com guy who contributed to the January 6th insurrection.
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com
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Joined: Sep 2019
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Think what one will about independents. They are the election deciders. Especially in national elections for the presidency. Although independents make up 45% of the electorate, about half aren’t interested in politics and never bother to vote. Independents make up only 30% or less of those who do vote. While the bases of the two major parties make up 55% of the total electorate, they make up 70% or a bit more of those who do vote. You can see the breakdown for the midterms via party in the link below. https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/houseand for the 2020 presidential election. https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-resultsThe two major parties are relatively even where their base is concerned. They tend to cancel each other out within a couple of points among those who do vote. As seen in the exit polls above. The fact that RFK Jr. is drawing 14% of the vote, mostly independents is something to take into consideration when viewing the up coming election from all Americans perspectives than just the loyal democratic partisan point of view. Which simply means Biden isn’t coming close to the 54% of the independents vote he garnered in 2020. He’s around 15 points below that. In fact, most polls show Trump with a point or two lead over Biden with other as the polls call third party voters and will not vote extremely high for the 2024 election. If one averages out for independents the other or third-party voters along with will not vote, the combined total is 34%. Compare that to 2020 when the combined total was 12% when Biden won independents 54-41 over Trump and to 2016 when the combined total was 26%. Trump won independents in 2016 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party. Why is this important, the numbers point to a low voter turnout for 2024 along with a high third-party vote. Voter turnout in 2016 when both major party candidates were disliked and unwanted was 54% using VAP, total third-party vote 6%. In 2020 voter turnout was 62% with third party vote at 1.8%. Due to the disliked and unwantedness of both major parties candidates, I wouldn’t be surprised to see voter turnout below the 54% of 2016 and the third-party vote among those who do turnout higher than the 6% in 2016. At least that what the numbers are telling us today, although they could change tomorrow. One last thing, 60% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, question 14. 56% of all Americans don’t want Trump to run again either, question 15. For most Americans, this rematch of an election is one made in hell. Hence the tie between Biden and Trump in all the recent polling. Not only recent but going back to January 2023, Trump and Biden has been within a point or two of each other. Drop below the first set of polls to see the graph below them on the second link below. https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_wyX9VrC.pdfhttps://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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