Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Staying with elections, looking at the senate: Senate rankings: The 5 seats most likely to flip

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4255284-senate-rankings-the-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip/

Going with the numbers today, the democrats get their wish and will be rid of Manchin. Resulting in a 50-50 tie. Ohio and Montana probably will switch also. Although Arizona and Pennsylvania remain in Democratic hands. Results, a republican controlled senate 52-48.

I wouldn’t be one bit surprised to see the democrats regain the house while the GOP flips control of the senate. Although as of today, the democrats have 24 seats at risk of switch vs. the Republicans 22. The democrats have a slight advantage with less pure tossups 10-14 over the GOP, they also have 2 currently held republican seats as going solid democratic.

Anyone who can't see that the Republicans can't govern (they can't even pick a Speaker of the House) and have no platform is an idiot. The Rs fake investigations are just asinine.

There was a lot of handwringing in 2020 and 2022 about a R-takeover. Seems like a redux to get clicks.

These 34 R-Congress people who conspired to overthrow the 2020 Election exchanged 2,319 texts with Mark Meadows in their J6 scheme. What will Jack Smith do with them? Indictments of any or all will affect the 2024 election.

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ)
Rep. Mike Kelly (R-PA)
Rep. Billy Long (R-MO)
Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH)
Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX)
Rep. Brian Babin (R-TX)
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND)
Rep. Mark Green (R-TN)
Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX)
Rep. Greg Murphy (R-NC)
Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ)
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC)
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT)
Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX)
Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA)
Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC)
Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN)
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH)
Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC)
Rep. Jody Hice (R-GA)
Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA)
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI)
Sen. David Perdue (R-GA)
Rep. Rick Allen (R-GA)
Rep. Bob Gibbs (R-OH)
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL)
Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY)
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA)
Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL)
Rep. Fred Keller (R-PA)
Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC)
Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-GA)

I think what one needs to realize in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide, the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship is most Americans have a hard on for, I should say against both major political parties.

Neither Party Well-Liked, but GOP Holds Advantage on Issues

https://news.gallup.com/poll/511979...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

and you have this - How Do Americans Feel About Politics? ‘Disgust Isn’t a Strong Enough Word’

https://www.yahoo.com/news/americans-feel-politics-disgust-isn-143400959.html

Then you have this, folks are just fed up with politics and have stopped paying much attention to politics. Only 32% of all Americans follow politics close these days. 38% of Republicans, 37% of Democrats, but only 27% of independents which make up 45% of the electorate, the election deciders.

U.S. Attention to Political News Slips Back to Typical Levels

https://news.gallup.com/poll/513128...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Interest in politics is definitely waning among Americans as a whole.

For weeks in late 2020 and early 2021, Mike Johnson (R-LA) had been inventing reasons for other Republican Congressmen to defy their oath of Office.

In early December 2020, the Texas attorney general filed a long-shot appeal citing an array of unproven claims of fraud and other irregularities and asking the U.S. Supreme Court to invalidate the Pennsylvania results on similar constitutional grounds.

Johnson drafted a supporting brief that focused on the constitutional argument. As chairman of the Republican Study Committee, he pushed its members to sign the brief, and he also wrote an email to all Republican lawmakers warning in bold red letters that Mr. Trump would be tracking their response. “He said he will be anxiously awaiting the final list to review,” Johnson wrote.

Decent Americans will draw a line at those who attempt to destroy democracy.

The selection of Mike Johnson for Speaker of the House will not bode well for Republicans in 2024.

Personally Rick, I don’t think most Americans give an owl’s hoot who is speaker of the house. Heck, over 30% of all Americans didn’t know who McCarthy was, over 40% have no idea who Hakeem Jeffries is. We’re back to that 32% of all Americans who follow politics closely which means 68% don’t. That shouldn’t be a surprise. On average 55% vote in presidential elections, meaning 45% don’t care who’s president. Midterms are much lower averaging around 40% who turnout to vote.

I can tell you this, over the last 3 weeks the needle for the generic congressional ballot hasn’t moved. People are still planning on voting for the same congressional party, candidates they were planning on voting for prior to the ouster of McCarty and all the chaos that occurred since then.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2024_generic_congressional_vote-7969.html

I've been spending a lot of time lately at Fox News.com in their comments section. The commenters at Fox News absolutely care. It's interesting to see a lot of anti-Trump posts there, and a lot of anti-MAGA posts. I would say it's 75/25 in the comments sections. 75% against Trump and MAGA.

This only started as the GA 19 defendants started pleading guilty. I've been pleasantly surprised.

Dems are picking up three house seats: Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina due to greedy, cartoonish GOP gerrymandering the Courts don't like.

An interesting scenario is rising considering that that most Americans don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to run again. 61% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, question 16. 58% of all Americans don’t want Trump to run again either, question 17.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_bpzPgoE.pdf

Add to the above the most recent Quinnipiac poll that shows Biden 36%, Trump 35%, RFK Jr. 19%, West 6%, someone else 1%. That’s 26% of all Americans stating they’d vote for someone other than Trump or Biden. Add the no labels party to this, especially if they come up with name recognized candidates with some good financial backing. You could have 30 or maybe 40% of all Americans voting for someone other than Biden or Trump.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3881

The possibility exists where all the independent candidates, RJK Jr. West, no labels, Libertarian, Constitutional, etc. parties received more votes combined than either Trump or Biden received individually on their own or each received. But a combined third party/independents vote wins no states, it’s how they perform individually allowing either Trump or Biden winning the states in the electoral college with 30%, 33%, 35% of the vote.

I enjoy your analysis, my friend. I have a different take:
1) it's too early for meaningful polling, which doesn't mean that the uninformed don't influence the poll results.
2) once these fringe candidates get exposure, they will sink like a stone - like DeSantis.
3) the real election will be between Biden and Trump - a rerun of 2020. Notwithstanding considerable turbulence, the result is likely to be very similar.
4) Of course, in the next year major events which will influence the election will occur. Many are predictable - Trump trials, a Biden health crisis, a foreign affairs disaster, a climate disaster - but others may come out of left field. Trump would never have been elected without James Comey announcing an ineffectual and unnecessary "reopening" of a closed investigation. Who saw that coming?