I'm going to make a prediction here and now so y'all can hold me to it later. Joe Biden is going to be reelected by essentially the same margin as last time. Moreover, the House is going to swing to the Democrats. The Senate I am not as sure about, as that is a seriously uphill climb.*

The basis of my prediction is multifold, but essentially this: 1) the economy continues to improve, and that reality is beginning to trickle down to the masses; 2) democracy really does matter to the majority of the electorate, and the efforts at killing democracy by the GOP are pissing people off (e.g., gerrymandering, vote suppression, making voting harder); 3) the GOP has become a cult, and the cult leader has never won an election on merit; 4) Trump is becoming more unhinged and more nakedly fascist; 5) Dobbs shocked the country and its repercussions are really becoming alarming - a woman in Texas literally died because she was denied a timely abortion, and she is not likely to be the last.**

* "Democrats are defending seven of the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. An eighth, Arizona, is held by a onetime Democrat, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who still caucuses with her former party and hasn’t said whether she’s running for reelection. Manchin’s decision has had the immediate effect of making the only two Democratic targets on this list – Texas and Florida – much more prominent in the party’s 2024 strategy.

Assuming West Virginia is off the map for Democrats, here’s what may need to happen for them to keep control of the Senate: They could defend all of their remaining seats and retain the presidency (because of the vice president’s tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate); they could hold all their remaining seats, lose the presidency, but flip either Florida or Texas; or they could lose another seat, win the presidency and flip both Florida and Texas. Flipping either of those states while losing the presidency would mean the Democratic Senate candidate would have to significantly overperform the top of the ticket.

The math is daunting." The 10 Senate seats most likely to ... abortion could be on the ballot in 2024

Last edited by NW Ponderer; 01/26/24 09:58 AM.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich