Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
I'm going to make a prediction here and now so y'all can hold me to it later. Joe Biden is going to be reelected by essentially the same margin as last time. Moreover, the House is going to swing to the Democrats. The Senate I am not as sure about, as that is a seriously uphill climb.*

The basis of my prediction is multifold, but essentially this: 1) the economy continues to improve, and that reality is beginning to trickle down to the masses; 2) democracy really does matter to the majority of the electorate, and the efforts at killing democracy by the GOP are pissing people off (e.g., gerrymandering, vote suppression, making voting harder); 3) the GOP has become a cult, and the cult leader has never won an election on merit; 4) Trump is becoming more unhinged and more nakedly fascist; 5) Dobbs shocked the country and its repercussions are really becoming alarming - a woman in Texas literally died because she was denied a timely abortion, and she is not likely to be the last.**

* "Democrats are defending seven of the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. An eighth, Arizona, is held by a onetime Democrat, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who still caucuses with her former party and hasn’t said whether she’s running for reelection. Manchin’s decision has had the immediate effect of making the only two Democratic targets on this list – Texas and Florida – much more prominent in the party’s 2024 strategy.

Assuming West Virginia is off the map for Democrats, here’s what may need to happen for them to keep control of the Senate: They could defend all of their remaining seats and retain the presidency (because of the vice president’s tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate); they could hold all their remaining seats, lose the presidency, but flip either Florida or Texas; or they could lose another seat, win the presidency and flip both Florida and Texas. Flipping either of those states while losing the presidency would mean the Democratic Senate candidate would have to significantly overperform the top of the ticket.

The math is daunting." The 10 Senate seats most likely to ... abortion could be on the ballot in 2024
I usually do monthly election forecasts. I go by the numbers available today and for each of the coming months. For January 2024, I agree Biden will be reelected. But won’t receive over 50%. 47-45 popular vote win, 287-251 in the EC. Low voter turnout and a high third party vote due to the dislike and unwantedness to become the next president of around 30% of the electorate for both major party candidates. An election more in line with 2016 than 2020.

The Democrats regain the house, probably a 6-10 seat gain while losing the senate. The democrats have already ensured themselves of a 2-seat gain with the redistricting done in Alabama and Louisiana which created two new majority black districts. Senate wise, West Virginia, Ohio and Montana go republican.

We had a lower percentage of all Americans who disliked both Trump and Clinton in 2016, 25% disliking and not wanting neither one. Voter turnout was 54% in 2016 compared to 62% in 2020. Third party voted was 6% in 2016 compared to 1.7% in 2020. We have a bit more percentage wise of the electorate today dissatisfied, disliking, not wanted a bit more with both major party choices than in 2016. Of course this all depends on how many state ballots RFK Jr. and the no labels party get on. That is unknown at this time. RFK Jr. has qualified to be on Utah and New Hampshire’s state ballots and is in the process of getting on 10 more state ballots, Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Texas.

No Labels has ballot access in at least 14 states, worth 123 electoral college votes: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah. Signature gatherers have another 14 states in their sights between now and November, though the major parties are throwing up their usual obstacles. Although they haven’t settled on a candidate. How viable will RFK Jr. and No Labels be, that all depends on how much money they have to spend. Since 1960 the candidate with the most money raised and spent has won the presidency with one lone exception, 2016 when Clinton raised and spent 1.191 billion to Trump’s 646.8 million.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.