Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Rather than quoting your whole post, I'm going to identify items I agree and disagree with, in sequence, and explain why (this is why I love RR):We agree, here. I believe his numbers will improve with the economy and Trump's will fall precipitously as the reality of what a second term portends becomes increasingly apparent. Shockingly, it is still too early for too many folks to pay attention. I disagree, but for precisely the reason that you think there will be a drain from a 3rd party candidate.I already made my prediction - 306 EC votes for Biden. I think he will improve his margin in every swing State that was close. This is the crux of our disagreement. I believe there will be high voter turnout that surpasses 2020, at least for the Democrats, for a few profound reasons: First, abortion will be on the ballot in several States - we've already seen how that drives turnout; second, the economy is already booming, and it is becoming more obvious to everyone (even FOX, who is trying desperately to spin gold into straw). Finally, as Trump gets more exposure, the issues he has are going to eclipse concerns about Biden's frailty. Trump is showing huge mental acuity lapses, and the pressure of his multiple trials is driving him off the rails. He's also increasingly demonstrating anti-democratic intent which is impacting a lot of the voters. That will only increase as the reality becomes more acute. The FOX/Trump vote is locked in. He's not improving his position.Here we also disagree. Both Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester will be reelected, in large part because of the abortion issue. Montana will have a Constitutional Amendment on the ballot, and the high-handed efforts to prevent it appearing on the ballot are rankling the population, who are quite independent. Sherrod Brown has just been too good for Ohio. Although Ohio is still quite red, the inherent conservatism actually helps Brown, as Ohioans are averse to change.While this is true, in 2016 we didn't really know where Trump would land. His term was an unmitigated disaster in virtually every aspect. Biden's unpopularity is skin deep, Trump's is bone.
I think you underestimate the motivation of Dobbs and overestimate antipathy to Biden.Here is a significant difference. I don't think there will be a major 3rd Party presence. They missed their window. No Labels is waning quickly and they have no viable candidates. RFK, likewise, will get even less attention as time progresses (and people learn just how truly whacko he is).

Now, there is a huge caveat to all of this: either candidate could have a major health scare and that could throw the whole process into a cocked hat.