Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

These two research articles from Gallup and Pew Research let’s everyone know why Biden and Trump are now in a basic tie in the polls today considering the MOE of plus or minus 3 points.

Two candidate race where the only choices given were Trump and Biden - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Five candidate race, multiple choices - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Article One – Pew Research - About 1 in 4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...favorable-views-of-both-biden-and-trump/

Article Two – Gallup - 29% in U.S. Say Neither Biden nor Trump Would Be Good President

https://news.gallup.com/poll/642911...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

I find it most interesting that approximately a third of all Americans view both Biden and Trump negatively. Most of that third are independents, the non-affiliated, the less to non-partisans which gave Biden the presidency by voting for him in 2020 by a 54-41 margin. That margin accounted for most of the 7 plus million votes Biden won the popular vote by. 2024 election is more in line with the 2016 election than the 2020 election. In 2016 25% of all Americans viewed both Clinton and Trump negatively.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

Many reasons for all of this, although I’ll let you draw your own conclusions. I have always feared that Biden, a safe bet to defeat Trump in 2020 wasn’t the right candidate to ensure another Trump defeat in 2024. It’s a 50-50 tossup election whereas Biden never trailed Trump all of 2020, Trump has led in the polls in 2024 since September of 2023. See graph below the first set of polls for 2020 election. .

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

Nimrata Haley's base will not vote for Trump, no way, no how. Why? Nimrata's base won't vote an adjudicated sexual assaulter and adjudicated business fraudster, with 91-grand jury indictments who calls our troops "suckers" and "losers." Calling our troops "suckers" and "losers" was a bridge too far for Nimrata's base.


Trump needs ALL of the GOP. Trump has #NoPathToVictory

Additionally, MAGAts want unity. The unity thing is a two-way street. MAGAts won't have unity when they refer to other Republicans as a RINO [Republican In Name Only]

Strange ...

I keep polling in my peripherals. Pundits keep proclaiming Trump supporters have been abandoning the train, while the polls, as you point out, say tossup.

Despite the quality of candidates, this is a clear cut choice between someone who wants to destroys Democracy, and someone who has been a somewhat competent administrator of Democracy. This has become, not a choice between disparate policies, but a choice between authoritarianism and Democracy. I understand quite well how and why MAGA believes Trump is the right choice, but when properly framed I don't understand how ANY American would consider Trump as THE choice to uphold Democracy. Too bad this election is not about competing policy issues, but has become a Darwinian death match for the existence of American Democracy.

If polling says it is a tossup, then Trump wins. He has the infrastructure to win even if he loses. He has it on local and state levels, so election boards can arbitrarily throw out votes if Trump loses outright i.e. alleged fraud. At the federal level he has a delusional speaker who can manipulate the process forcing the election into the House, and if that is not enough, he has gun carrying MAGA inside Congress ready in case Trump calls for another assault on the Capitol.

Perhaps Americans deserve to be enslaved by MAGA.

The media needs the narrative of a tight race to keep eyeballs glued to them and to keep readers/viewers coming back and to generate ad revenue. It's a pretty sick game that they play.

Rporter, there’s been so much negative personal attacks during election campaigns over the last several decades, folks have become numb to them or don’t pay them any attention. So, when it is said that Trump is out to destroy democracy or will become a dictator, few pay attention. In fact, 59% of all Americans viewed this talk as nothing more than scare tactics by the democrats, a vote for me type of negative personal attack against Trump, an attempt to scare people from voting for Trump.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/HHP_Jan24_KeyResults.pdf

Why consider Trump? The reason is many folks feel they were better off under Trump than they are today under Biden. The old are you better off today than you were 4 years ago question. 46% of all Americans looking back on the Trump presidency rate his presidency excellent or good vs 33% for Biden so far. 65% of all Americans state the economy was good under Trump, 38% rate the economy good under Biden. 55% say Biden’s policies are making prices go up, only 17% go down. 34% of all Americans think Trump’s policies made prices go up, 44% said his policies made prices go down. Here’s the kicker, 34% of all Americans say democracy will be safe only if Biden wins, 33% state democracy will be safe only if Trump wins. 13% say democracy will be safe if either one wins, but 20% say democracy won’t be safe regardless of who wins between Trump and Biden.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-leads-biden-economy/

Most Americans, especially independents have short memories. They also can change their minds in a heartbeat. 4 years ago, independents flocked to the polls to get rid of Trump. They voted for Biden 54-41. Today, Trump leads among independents 40-35 with the rest in the vote third party, will not vote or undecided columns. Which is why Trump is slightly ahead of Biden in the polls today. The top two issues today are inflation/rising prices and immigration. Every other issue is way down the line in single digits as to their importance in deciding who to vote for.

Here's how all Americans view Biden’s handling of these two top issues.

Inflation 35.8% approve, 61,7% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/inflation

Immigration 31.8% approve, 63.7% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/immigration

Trump and Biden need each other. The only way one or the other can win is if they have each other as their opponent. Personally, I think Biden will carry the day. Especially if Trump goes on trial for either 1-6 or the classified documents prior to the election. But that isn’t a guarantee.

Yet these same people can't state any Trump policy that caused this - because there were none. Trump benefitted from eight years of Obama policy. Trump put asinine tarrifs into place. Trump hurt farmers and had to financially compensate them. Consumers goods prices rose because of Trump's tariffs. Trump had a negative effect on the economy especially in 2020.

Rick, presidents have always taken credit for a good economy, they have always gotten the blame for a bad economy. Presidents holler from the top of the mountain when the economy is good that it was their policies that caused the good times. Then try to shrink away when the economy goes sour. My own personal view is that the economy is like the weather, no president, no government controls it. The economy like the weather is going to do what its going to do. If presidents, government had control over the economy, we’d have all good times, ups, no bad times, down. We don’t. Sure, presidential policy can play around the edges of the economy much like seeding clouds can play with the weather. But no one controls or have much say on what the economy will do. Usually good times are global as is bad times. Sure, presidential policy can hurt one sector of the economy, but not the whole economy. Like you pointed out with the farmers. But that’s playing around the edges in my book.

But all previous presidents who has taken credit for a good economy causing the blame for inflation, rising prices, the economy in general to fall on Biden’s shoulder. The president is in charge, when things don’t go well, it’s the job of the president to fix it. He’s the leader, the one in charge, thus he's going to get credit or get the blame. It comes with the job. We’re going to have ups and downs regardless of what a president or government does with the economy. It’s rather simple, at least in my book. Biden’s getting the blame for inflation, rising prices only because he’s president, the one in charge, the leader of this nation. Had Trump won in 2020, most Americans would now be blaming him. If Clinton had won in 2016, then Trump won in 2020, people would be wanted her policies back much like they want Trump’s policies back today. It’s all about perceptions, about the one in charge, the president at the time and mostly it’s about all previous president taking credit for a good economy that they had little to nothing to do with which causes presidents, Biden today to be getting the blame.

All in all perotista's arguments for "the wisdom of independents" doesn't sound like a good advertisement for being an independent. If I didn't know better it's almost like saying independents really just want "the image of a strongman telling them what to think and do" without him actually BEING "a strong man"...just the appearance of it.

That's almost like wanting to force people into agreeing that WWE Wrestling is real.

Does that really sound like a good argument for being an independent, or does it sound more like an argument for being a sucker for media polling that was pre-designed to produce an already agreed upon desired polling result?

I bet twenty bucks that I can create a poll that says 65% of Americans want to contract terminal cancer if I hire enough think tanks to sell the idea of the benefits of terminal cancer to enough Americans.

Jeffrey, I never said independents were smart and full of wisdom. Only they’re the election deciders. Most independents don’t pay any or very little attention to politics until an election nears. They’re about as far from being a political junkie as one can get. Yet they’re the election deciders in this era of shrinking major parties. Independents has risen from 30% of the electorate in 2006 up to 42% today. What do independents want? I’d say a sense of wellbeing, a sense of safety, the feeling they’re life is improving and more. Pretty much what everyone wants. But their life doesn’t revolve around politics, they’re more interested in the price of a loaf of bread, eggs, hot dogs, etc. More interested in rooting for their favorite sports team, watching their favorite TV shows, taking care of family. All have a higher priority to them than politics. They’re not about to delve deep into the issues and do any research either. It’s the feeling they have. They feel that under Trump their lives were better than under Biden. That milk, bread, eggs, gas, housing, clothes, the essentials of life were cheaper under Trump. Fact is they were. They don’t care about the reason or reasons behind this, just that it was. So, who’s do they blame? Who’s in charge? It isn’t Trump.

According to Gallup, only 32% of all Americans follow news about national politics closely. Which can be broken down to 37% of democrats following the news about national politics closely, 36% of republicans with only 27% of independents who follow the national political news closely. This leaves 68% of all Americans who aren’t political junkies. This also leaves well over half of those who identify themselves with both major parties who aren’t political junkies either or don’t follow politics closely. It isn’t just independents.

Let’s face it, there aren’t that many Americans who are very interested in politics. On average we have 45% of all Americans who never bother to vote in a presidential election. That percentage rises to 60% who don’t have the time or care about voting in the midterms. Local elections when not held in conjunction to the presidential or midterm election, those who don’t bother to vote in them rises to 75-80%. We had a school board election last July in my county, only 11% of eligible voters voted.