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I think where people get the polls wrong is they don’t take the MOE into consideration. Some examples: The polls had the republicans winning the midterm congressional vote by 2.5 points. They won it by 2.8 points. Well within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. The polls had Biden winning by 7.2 points in 2020. He won by 4.5 points. Barely within the MOE, but within it. Sure, the polls missed it by 2.7 points, but one needs to factor in the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. Same for the 2018 midterms which had the democrats winning the national congressional vote by 7.3 points, they won it by 8.4 points. Still within the MOE. The polls had Clinton winning in 2016 by 3.2 points, she won the popular vote by 2.1 points. That pretty darn close and once again within the MOE. And so on, on back. I don’t think most folks who say the polls were wrong understand the MOE each poll has. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.htmlhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-bidenhttps://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.htmlhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clintonThe latest polling average has Trump ahead by 0.2 points in a two-candidate race. That is basically a tie. I would consider it a tie because of the MOE of plus or minus 3 points even if Trump was ahead by 3 points or behind Biden by 3 points. Mainly because that is the margin of error most polls have. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-bidenI believe trends are far more important than the horserace numbers. Trump took the lead in September of last year averaging around a 2.5-point lead until the end of March this year. Since then Biden has narrowed that to 0.2 points. That’s a trend worth watching. Leaving the polls behind, I think Biden will win. Today, Biden trails Trump among independents, the election deciders. Which is why we have a basic tie instead of Biden being 5 or 6 points ahead. But the general election campaign hasn’t started yet, at least officially. I think once it begins, once independents who really disliked Trump back in 2020, but liked Biden enough to vote for him by a 54-41 vote margin will begin to return. Today most independents dislike both and don’t want neither one as their next president. But once the general election campaign begins, Trump will be Trump, his old obnoxious, uncouth, rude self. His name calling, throwing of temper tantrums along with his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactics. He will remind independents why they disliked him so much back in 2020. They may still dislike Biden. Worry about Biden’s age and his mental fitness for another term. They still won’t like Biden’s job performances or his handling of most issues. But they’ll dislike Biden less than they do Trump and end up supporting Biden. I’d worry about turnout though and those independents voting third party against both.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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personal political negative attack ads First, I know you have a very broad definition of what constitutes a negative ad. Thus, I believe you believe any criticism of an opponent is a negative ad. Based on that definition, I completely understand why the "electorate" views those kinds of adds "negatively". However, I believe if a so-called negative add is substantive, it would not be viewed the same, by reasonable people. Thus if I were to list an opponents voting record, we would know what an opponent believes and would support. Thus if such a candidate voted for bans on abortion, any ad including that would in my view be a legitimate use of information. Using your broad definition a candidate who was a mass murdering, pedophile, fraudster would be exempt from any "negative" ads mentioning his proclivities. Does that seem like a good use of campaign ads? The difference between whether Trump is a danger to Democracy and Pres Biden is a danger, is one of substance. I can list many substantive true and valid things which would make Trump a danger to Democracy, while I can not thing a substantive, true or valid thing which would make Pres Biden a threat to Democracy. Now, I can think of a number of policy issues for which people object and would hyperbolically believe would be a threat, but in each case Democracy is not in the balance. MAGA would believe God is a threat to Democracy if God was Trump's opponent. So any polling which includes MAGA is skewed and clearly leads to inappropriate and inaccurate conclusions. While there is certainly a core group of Democrats who would view Trump as a threat, they would not view Liz Cheney as a threat. That is the difference. What explains the independents? Ignorance! Let me explain. If you lay out a table and compare what Trump has said and done (as a threat to Democracy) and what Pres Biden has done and said (which someone could view as a threat), there would be no equivalency. It would be clear one list has policy issues, while the other has actual threats. In the movie "An American President" there is a line which goes, the presidency is all about character. If that is true, and I believe it should be, then everything a candidate does and says should be considered. Thus, we have one candidate, who has been convicted of fraud, has led several fraudulent enterprises, sexually assaults women, defames people, and has been indicted on a number of charges for crimes against the country. All of this should be considered for the question, is this person fit to occupy the WH? The other candidate has none of those "problems". What he does have is some questionable decisions in the public arena, after which he has evolved and changed his positions, but he is not a fraud, he has not been indicted for criminal activities, and he doesn't assault women. He is old, but so is the other candidate. Fitness? How can there be any question, who is fit? I believe current polling has been so skewed by the polarization of politics, it has become useless to understand and explain anything politically. See my arguments above. How could any reasonable person in normal times select a criminal as a viable candidate for the presidency? This can only happen today, and that is precisely why Trump is a threat to Democracy. He has an actual chance of winning outright (and certainly may invoke his sycophants in state governments and in the House to subvert the elections results and anoint trump as president). The courts don't have any power to set the ship aright. The military may intervene on behalf of the Constitution, but I am not holding my breathe. I watched an interview of John Bolton, who believes Trump is not a threat to Democracy but is unfit. All I can say is Bolton is delusional. Anyone who believes Trump will not do whatever it takes to become president has been drinking kooky juice. I am the mad man from the mountains shouting for anyone to hear ... for I know I will become an enemy of the state should Trump win You don’t have to convince me. It’s all of America that needs convincing. But most aren’t buying it. The reason why is 62% just look at all this talk about Trump being a threat to democracy as nothing more than Democratic scare tactics, a vote for my guy scare tactic. I was just letting you know that it isn’t working, letting you know what all of America is thinking, seeing, feeling, etc. I also don’t think the democrats realize how poor a choice Biden was, is to ensure Trump’s defeat. I personal believe almost any other Democratic candidate would be 10 points ahead of Trump instead of being in a basic tie. But that is just my opinion, everyone has them. In plain English, Biden went from a huge asset in 2020 to a liability in 2024.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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(scroll over the words, and click the linky dink)
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Jeffery J. Haas |
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It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
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It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
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(scroll over the words, and click the linky dink) "What a huge liability"
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD deepfreezefilms.com
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Not a problem Jeffrey, Rick. Here you go as of 2100 hrs 12 Apr 2024. Two candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-bidenTrump 45.5, Biden 45.3. Five candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-steinTrump 41.9, Biden 40.0, Kennedy 10.0, West 1.7, Stein 1.5. It’s still a basic tie since both of rcp averages of the most recent polls are within the MOE. But on this day 12 April 2020 Biden 48.1, Trump 42.1. Biden had a 6-point lead instead of trailing by 0.2. I think anyone taking on Trump should be ahead by quite a lot. Not falling within the MOE. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-bidenIn fact, in 2020 Biden never trailed Trump in every poll taken. At least those listed on RCP. This year, Trump has lead Biden since September of last year according to RCP averages. But am I wrong in thinking whoever is the democratic nominee should be leading Trump by a lot, perhaps 10 points? Not being in a basic tie. That the nominee shouldn’t be giving Trump a 50-50 shot at regaining the white house?
Last edited by perotista; 04/13/24 12:57 AM.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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It’s only April, and Trump's first criminal trial starts in less than 72 hours. Next week, Trump is in another court answering questions about the the fake $175m bond he posted.
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Trump may be the GOP frontrunner, but his outreach to voters is coming up short with a substantial number of Nimrata Haley voters professing they won't vote for him in November. Across the board in the primaries, 30 percent of Republican voters say they are never going to vote for Donald Trump and will sit-out the November ’24 election.
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It’s only April, and Trump's first criminal trial starts in less than 72 hours. Next week, Trump is in another court answering questions about the the fake $175m bond he posted. Convicted felon Donald Trump has a nice ring to it.
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Rick, I hear that all the time. But if one looks at the party breakdown as to who those republicans and democrats plan on voting for. It’s equal. 87% of democrats plan on voting for Biden, 2% for Trump. 87% Republicans say they’ll vote for Trump, 3% for Biden. The rest are stating they’ll vote third party, undecided or will not vote. That is below the historical average of both major parties faithful voting for their party’s candidate 94% of the time. https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_lMxEeEw.pdfThe last time the party faithful voted below the historical average for their candidate was in 2016 when 89% of democrats voted for Clinton, 8% for Trump, 88% of republicans voted for Trump, 8% for Clinton. https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/presidentLike you, I always thought once the trials start that will hurt Trump. But will it? The 91 federal indictments had no effect. The New York civil fraud trial and the E.J. Carrol trial, verdicts have had no effect. Trump maintain his average lead of 1 to 2 points over Biden in the polls all through those. We’ll just have to wait and see. The bottom line so far is Biden has his poor job performance in the eyes of most Americans, he has the age and mental acuity issues with most Americans. Trump has his legal problems which most Americans find offensive, his obnoxious, rude, uncouth personality makes him easy to dislike. Both have a lot of liabilities this time around when in 2020 it was only Trump with the liabilities. I can’t understand or see why democrats can’t see or acknowledge this. But it is what it is. I firmly believe a fresh, younger candidate, a candidate without Biden’s liabilities would be trouncing Trump by 10 or more points than being in a basic tie. But that is my belief. Apparently, it isn’t anyone else’s. One last thing, looking at how the people feel about the candidates running. All Americans, 13% enthusiastic about Biden, 42% upset that he’s the democratic nominee. Democrats only, 33% enthusiastic, 8% upset. Trump being the GOP nominee, 26% of all Americans are enthusiastic, 43% upset. Republicans only, 59% enthusiastic, 8% upset. That’s a lot of Americans upset that both Trump and Biden are the major party nominees. Questions 25A and 25B for the full breakdown. https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_lMxEeEw.pdf
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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How are polls conducting phone surveys when most people don't have landlines?
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