Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Here’s a good research paper, polling results from Pew Research which may give an answer to what were seeing so far in this rematch election year. 49% of all Americans say that, if they had the ability to decide the major party candidates for the 2024 election, they would replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot. This from Pew Research which includes a lot more information than just this fact showing the dislike and unwantedness of both Trump and Biden to become the next president. It touches on ethics, physical fitness to do the job, breaks down the voter groups, evaluations of the presidencies, the criminal charges on Trump on page 1, page 2 which you can go to at the bottom is about the rematch, page 3 voters view of Trump and Biden, page 4 feelings about this rematch, page 5 Biden’s approval ratings.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...roadly-critical-of-both-biden-and-trump/

Very insightful if one wants to get into the nitty gritty details that most just ignore concentrating only on the horserace numbers. The reasons why Trump and Biden are in a basic tie are in there if one is interested in why.

Trump wins and why polling doesn't matter.

Implicit in a polling regime to comprehend voter opinions, is all voting sites are equally fair and free from obvious voter impersonation fraud. But that is not the case. So let's examine my argument.

This election much as the previous general election will be putatively determined by just a few votes in a few so-called battleground states. One of the seminal Republican stratagems has been to disenfranchise predominantly Democrat voter blocks. This corrupt practice has become forefront in this stratagem by Red State laws which, with laser focus, single out Democrat blocks for "legal" disenfranchisement, under the guise of making the voting process more secure. Since the result of the election will be determined by just a few votes, it doesn't take many "legal" impediments to keep a sufficient umber of Democrats from voting to swing an election.

Further, Republicans have adopted one of the most repugnant plans, reminiscent of KKK tactics to not just disenfranchise voters but to intimidate them while trying to vote. Their plan is to target people of color. This is the same plan True the Vote uses to intimidate black people in Texas not to vote. True the Vote is also the racist organization which provided Dinesh with non existent evidence of fraud, which formed the basis of his movie, 2000 Mules. Republicans are willing to plumb the depths of depravity to win an election.

If that were not enough, Republicans have in place the infrastructure which can guarantee a Trump win regardless if he actually wins. At local and state levels they have election boards and partisan overseers to ensure they win by throwing out votes. One of the more egregious methods is to throw out mail-in ballots which do not have an exact signature match to voter registration card. The assumption is this will throw out Democrat votes (and Republican votes) but same day turn out by Republicans would make up the difference. Every loss of Democrat votes help ensure a Republican win, when the voting is close.

And finally we have an ultra- conservative Speaker of the House who has already been complicit in attempting to overthrow one election. Should certification come down to procedural issues of MAGA representatives objecting to certification, Rep Mike Johnson would simply intervene and guide the process into the House, where Republicans would anoint Trump the winner.

People say it can't happen in America, but we have already seen what Trump has done and he has already indicated he will not concede this election, especially now that he has his loyal soldiers in place.

Polls!!! .... who needs polls when you rig an election.

What polls do is to give you the mood of the country on whatever topic, issue, election, etc. they’re polling. As to the accuracy of the polls, most are fairly accurate as in the sense the final results falls within the MOE (Margin of Error) of the polls usually determined by the amount of people polled.

Forget the horserace numbers, they’ve been within the MOE since this rematch of an election began. A basic tie as I call it. But what the number show by delving deep within the polls, research papers, not just looking at the horserace number is this rematch is the last thing most Americans want. The numbers show very little enthusiasm for voting for the presidency. Around 55% with very little or no enthusiasm at all. That both major party candidates are disliked and unwanted to become the next president. For different reasons for sure. The disgust, disgust is probably the proper word to use for this rematch is evident all around for everyone to see. If they’d open their eyes.

Something is very wrong with the choices offered by both major parties, at least for most or a majority of Americans. What does 49% of all Americans who would replace both Trump and Biden with someone else as both major parties’ nominees if given a chance to do that. Not just one, both. What does 62% of all Americans saying this country needs another choice other than Trump and Biden?

What the research papers, delving deep within the polls show is around 35% of all Americans really want Trump to regain the white house. That around that same percentage, 35% want Biden reelected. That 30% don’t want neither one. This 30% think both Trump and Biden would not make a good president and be bad for the country if either one is elected. They’re mood today which is in my opinion much more important than the horserace numbers is one of who cares who wins or loses. For this 30% of all Americans, this rematch is a lose, lose rematch. Yet, this 30% are the election deciders, that is if they vote. If those who do vote, how many will choose between the two major party candidates, how many will vote against both by voting third party as 6% did in 2016? Which candidate will this 30% deem the lesser of two evils, the least worse candidate, the major party candidate they want to lose the least, not win, but lose the least?

All I can say is both major parties are totally blind to the mood of the entire electorate, most Americans about this rematch. The big question, what can be done to change this mood? I’d say nothing, it’s way past time for any possibility of changing. The rematch is set in stone.

P ... I am not arguing the accuracy nor the efficacy of polls. My argument is it doesn't matter a mote what the polls are saying. I am arguing the fix is in and Trump will be the future occupant of the WH, regardless of what the future vote totals say.

Yep you read it here .... yes I am that mad voice alerting the populace of the Death of Democracy. Get ready to take the loyalty oath.

Rapace

Have you or any democrat for that matter, anti-Trumper ever asked themselves why Trump at this point in time stands a 50-50 chance of regaining the white house? The answer is simple and so obvious that it gets totally overlooked.

"The answer is simple and so obvious that it gets totally overlooked" So I am a clueless rube. Let me explain.

I am not a bigot, but I understand how bigotry can drive a person;s political beliefs. So I completely understand why the Republican Base (for most of them) are attracted to Trump. He figured out what the driving force was of the Base and tapped into it. The result of their bigotry is now called White Rural Rage. Everything these folks hate about the federal government can be distilled to bigotry. So I get the 35%-40% who continue will will never stop supporting Trump. Did you see the video from one Miss university???

So the question becomes what motivates the 10-15% who support Trump, to make up the 50% support he gets in polling. Presumably these are independents. If they are irrational thinkers and it simply a beauty contest, I get it. They are my stupid electorate. I suppose some like the authoritarian nature of Trump i.e. he should be king. Again, my stupid electorate. Etc. No objectively rational person would consider Trump a good candidate, even if he were running against a dead ham sandwich. Trump is a narcissist whose only concern is garnering popular adulation at whatever expense it costs the country. Trump is incompetent. This is proven in his business dealings. Trump as a self promoting narcissist uses grifts as a means to elevate his ego at the expense of other people. Trump has an authoritarian streak in him (based on his narcissism)for which he will destroy Democratic institutions in order to idolize himself. etc.

Since I am clearly not very smart, the answer is no, I do not have a clue what is so obvious.

For the last two years, this is from a numbers guy, an avid polls watcher and research paper reader, Biden has had somewhere between 55-60% of all Americans who don’t want him reelected. The Pew Research paper delves into this along with job approval numbers, the age and mental fitness worries all play into where we’re at today with this rematch. I give the Trumpers a higher percentage of all Americans than you. Around 30%. No where near enough to win an election. What we also have is around the same percentage of Americans who don’t want Trump to regain the white house. Thus, the basic tied between Biden and Trump.

Even in 2020, people weren’t in love with Biden. He was that year, an acceptable alternative to Trump. People were anti-Trump, but not pro-Biden which translated into Biden’s 7 plus million vote victory. But at the same time, a lot of people who voted for Biden, against Trump, turned around and voted republican down ballot enabling the GOP to gain 13 house seats. 2020 was only the second time in our history where a candidate won the popular vote on his way to the presidency and lost house seats. 1884, Grover Cleveland won the popular vote and the presidency by 50,000 votes, yet the democrats lost 8 house seats. 50,000 is a huge difference than winning by 7 plus million.

We had a sitting president in 2020 that the people didn’t want reelected, but an acceptable alternative to that sitting president in Biden. Today, we’re back to having a sitting president that isn’t wanted, ALA 2020, but the alternative isn’t wanted either. Hence the basic tie. And yes, it’s independents that has switched from going to Biden in 2020 54-41 to going to Trump so far this year, 37% Trump, 35% Biden, with the rest in the vote third party, will not vote or undecided columns. Which wipes away the 7 million vote margin Biden won the 2020 election by. You have 28% of independents still looking for an alternative to both Biden and Trump. They don’t want neither one. They’re falling into the vote third party, will not vote or still undecided columns.

People are just as much anti-Trump today as they were in 2020. The big difference is today they’re also anti-Biden whereas in 2020 they weren’t. Biden is president today, not Trump which is another huge difference.

The obvious part was Biden wasn’t going to win reelection. That is until Trump became the GOP nominee. Which turned an obvious landslide defeat into a 50-50 shot for both. Biden’s numbers are worse than Jimmy Carter’s in 1980, worse than G.H.W. Bush in 1992, worse than Trump’s in 2020. With the dislike and unwantedness of Trump still present, I firmly believe that almost any other democratic candidate than Biden would be trouncing Trump. Most people wanted someone other than Biden and Trump this year. Most wanted a fresh, younger face, not two old foggies which one belongs in a nursing home and the other in jail.

But unlike you, I believe Biden will pull this out. Never underestimate the power of incumbency. Then too, way too many people out there among the masses still can’t believe this election will be between Biden and Trump. That reality hasn’t sunk in yet.

Yes I understand your argument and the statistics. none of which entered into my argument for all the reasons you believe it should. My argument is based solely on objective rational thought. I don't care if the race was between Trump and a "dead ham sandwich", voters should recognize all the dangers of incompetency, corruption, and authoritarianism. It should not be framed as a race between one old guy ... o and another old guy, but as one person who supports Democracy and one who abhors it.

Just because we are forced into choices which are unpalatable, does not mean we should ignore the qualities essential for "good" governance. I made the same argument in 2016. Clinton was the competent journeyman, even though flawed, candidate, she was still by far the better choice.

I can't imagine how Democracy will be decided on by less than 100,000 voters. I guess in a modern world we deserve to be enslaved by a currently indicted person apparently willing to sell out his country for few bucks. What I know is there are not enough attorneys in America to keep Trump from weaponizing government. He has a whole cadre of loyalists willing to lie cheat steal and probably kill for him in order to be the once and future king of America, Savoir, anointed by God, and crowned by his own hand, despite what Bill Barr thinks. For me ... well, I will be known as rapace for as long as I should remain free from his jack booted thugs.

Prepare to join the resistance and save America.

But I recall what you typed .... it could never happen in America.

Just because Trump was unsuccessful the last time does not mean he will be unsuccessful this time. All the pieces are in place .... Republicans are actively as I type attempting to throw out votes, and that is just the obvious "legal" stuff.

Can't happen in America .... its already happening

I don’t remember ever typing that. I know I’ve said that Biden was the wrong candidate to ensure Trump’s defeat. That still holds true today. If the election were held today, Trump would probably win. Here’s the electoral college with the candidate which have a 5 or more-point lead assigned to the candidate with the lead. States with less than a 5-point lead are tossups. Trump with a 246-216 electoral college vote lead.

https://www.270towin.com/

The election isn’t today. Why my thinking on Biden finally pulling this out? You still have a quarter of the voters out there that still believe Trump and Biden won’t be their party’s nominees. That somehow, someway, both will be changed, be swapped out for someone else. The reality that this rematch happening is still lost on them. Once this sinks in, Trump vs. Biden, they’ll make a choice between them. They won’t be happy; they’ll probably be angry as all get out at being forced to choose between Trump and Biden. By not having someone else to vote for. But I think their memories will be jogged, even though they don’t want Biden, that they’ll begin to remember why they disliked Trump so much in 2020. That Biden will become the lesser of two evils to them, the candidate they least want to lose. That Trump’s childish, 4-year-old spoiled brat antics, his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactics, his lies, his legal problems which I hope one of his legal problems results in a guilty verdict. That Biden is still the only adult in the room. A great grandfather type of an adult to them. Perhaps an adult who has done a very poor job in their eyes as president, an old man they worry about him being able to survive another term in office along with his mental fitness, but an adult, nonetheless.

In plain English, I’m counting on Trump defeating Trump, not Biden defeating Trump. With Biden’s numbers and all the fears and liabilities associated with him, Biden can’t defeat Trump. But Trump can defeat himself which in the end, I confident will happen. That Biden will become the fist sitting president with an overall job approval of well below 50%, currently at 40%, of being viewed unfavorably by 58% of all Americans to win reelection since Gallup and Pew Research started keeping track of these things back in 1948. All thanks to the Republicans nominating Trump.