Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News The RoundTable Round Table for Spring 2024

If this was a "normal" election, everything you said about the candidates would be true and valid, but again you have missed the most salient issue .... it is not a "normal" election ... we have Trump ... impeached, indicted, convicted felon, sexual predator, but most important a candidate as anti-American as any candidate in history. Try analyzing from that perspective, and all your protestations appear as ephemeral as fog in sunlight. That the American electorate is too frakking stupid to understand it, too frakking ignorant, just don't care, or they are all for the demise of Democracy. is the issue. And to top it off, elected Republicans are complicit.

This is why I am that madman screaming of the Death of Democracy ... nothing else matters

Well, it is what it is. It’s not what I’m missing, perhaps it what the whole country is missing. I can let you know how all Americans are viewing this rematch or totally ignore it. Fact is Biden is basically a non-factor for around 70% of all Americans. They’re either very pro-Trump or very anti-Trump. Even among those who today state they’re voting for Biden, their much more anti-Trump than for Biden. 55% of those who state they’re voting for Biden are mostly voting against Trump. Only 43% are mostly voting for Biden. For the anti-Trumpers, who the democrat is don’t matter. Biden, Mother Terresa, Atilla the Hun. But for the final 30% who for the most part is both anti-Biden and anti-Trump, who don’t like nor want either one, How they view Biden and his 4 years as president very well may be the deciding factor. They tend to forget Trump’s childish antics, his bullying tactics, his obnoxiousness, his very poor handling of his presidential duties, his lies, The impeachments, 1-6, all his legal problems and on and on. This latter 30% are more focused on Biden, he’s president now than Trump who once was. We’ll have to wait and see how this hush money guilty verdict affects Trump.

This time around, it’s Biden who must defend his presidency, not Trump. For this latter 30%, this isn’t a normal election in the sense they’re being asked to choose between two candidates they dislike and don’t want as the next president. This is what makes this rematch not normal to them. Not the preservation of democracy. This election, rematch, to this last 30% who aren’t pro or anti-Trumpers, has the air or feeling among them as being a who cares who wins or loses election. They want someone other than Trump and Biden. It’s really that simple. Probably well over half won’t even bother to vote. Then another good percentage will vote third party against both Biden and Trump with the remaining choosing between them. Those that do choose will be the election deciders.

I’ve said this before, I firmly believe that almost any other democrat than Biden would be beating Trump by 10 points or more. Not trailing by 2. Especially when I break down this final 30%.

"almost any other democrat"

I do want to respond to ... "This is what makes this rematch not normal to them." but first ... which Democrat? While I can see a whole bevy of competent people, none has the gravitas to take on the mantle of President .... IMHO

Beside Attila ( a bit extreme ... I prefer a dead ham sandwich), who?

I’m going by Biden’s numbers. His very low numbers would have doomed Biden to a landslide loss against almost any other republican than Trump. Any sitting president with a job approval of below 50% has lost his reelection bid. Ford at 45% lost to Carter in 1976. Jimmy at 39% lost to Reagan in 1980, G.H.W. Bush at 43% lost to Bill Clinton in 1992 and Trump at 42% lost to Biden in 2020. Be grateful if you’re a Biden supporter, that you want Biden to win because he’s Joe Biden and not just anti-Trump that it’s Trump Biden is running against. Half of all America don’t want this rematch. They want someone other than either Biden or Trump. Poll after poll has showed this.

59% of all Americans don’t or didn’t want Biden to run for reelection. 57% don’t and didn’t want Trump to run again. You have two very unpopular, unwanted, disliked major party candidates. 55% of all Americans have a negative or unfavorable view of Biden, 54% the same negative/unfavorable view of Trump.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders

It’s this negative view of both major party candidates that makes this election not normal. Only once before had we an election where both major party candidates were viewed under 50% favorably and over 50% unfavorably. 2016 between Trump and Clinton. The result was a low voter turnout 54% and a high third-party vote, 6%. Expect the same this year as voter enthusiasm is even lower this year to vote for president than it was in 2016. By contrast in 2020 with high voter enthusiasm, voter turnout was 62% using VAP with only 1.7% third party vote.

its only 26 days until the first debate (both will appear). Hopefully Biden will have at it with a will and mention stuff like; Trump not allowing the house's effort to deal with the southern border, a few things from the Trump's presidency like the simple fact that there were several who thought the Trump presidency was the worst in the history of the nation, etc. You know, that kind of stuff.

If Biden actually goes after Trump then, perhaps, some votes might change?

I think the avid pro and anti-Trump vote is pretty much set in stone. Nothing that happens is going to change how they’ll vote. Since September of last year Trump has been at 47%, Biden at 45% give or take a point in the two-candidate race. Considering the MOE of plus or minus 3 points, that’s no movement at all.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

The same with the 5-way race, Trump one point either side of 41%, Biden one point either side of 39% since September of last year. The only candidate to fluctuate has been RFK Jr. who started off at 15% and is currently at 10%. But neither Biden nor Trump has picked up any of RFK Jr.’s 5 points he has lost. They’ve gone into the undecided column.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Will the debate or the guilty verdicts make a difference? I don’t know. If the past 8 months are any indication, probably not. It seems going by the last 8 months that 80% of those who plan on voting have decided between Trump and Biden. Another 15% plan on voting third party against both Trump and Biden leaving but 5% undecided. This has been the steadiest 8 months I ever seen with so little movement one way or the other.

Although Biden never trailed in 2020, he fluctuated between 47-53% over a 8-month period. Trump fluctuated between 40-46%. Biden’s lead over Trump was always between 4-10 points. Undecided’s fluctuated between 10-15%. Third party voters were almost non-existent.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

I hope you’re right jgw, but I’m having my doubts.

This morning, whilst driving to my chiropractor, I actually heard an ad supplied by the Democrats. I think it was on msnbc and it was a dandy. Talked about what happened during the Trump Presidency and covered quite a lot (there is a lot to be covered on that one). Its interesting, I have heard several Democrats saying that the Democratic party has to do this because Biden is not very good at doing it, and doesn't, and somebody has to do it and, apparently, now they actually are!

Anyway, it made me feel better although, the fact is that, I suspect, Trumpites do not listen to msnbc a whole lot. Now, perhaps, Biden might also do something about Netanyahu who has, now several times, basically told Biden to Go fly a kite. One would think, given that virtually the rest of the world has moved against Netanyahu, Biden might join in with the rest of the world and, possibly, pickup a few more votes along the way.

Hope is not all bad!

New Swing State Billboard Campaign ... Support Him Over His Felony Convictions
I like this.

I am not as pessimistic as others. I believe there is a current of democracy that is underlying this election. Yes, there is still a problem with the geriatric election - between an 81 year old and a 78 year old - but I think, when push comes to shove, this election will end up as 2020 did. I think that the horror that was the Donald Trump Presidency will inspire a democratic turnout. The stakes are just too high.

I think the prospect of electing a convict is just going to be too much for too many voters. We will see how soon it begins to affect the polling, but I think it is there.What the Polls Are Saying After Trump’s Conviction
(New York Magazine).

"Donald Trump is now a convicted felon, but what impact that has on the 2024 presidential race remains to be seen. The first indicators of how voters might respond will be the results of polls conducted soon after a New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records. While it’s worth keeping in mind the many potential flaws of early polling following a major news event, here’s what those polls say so far (this post will be updated as more poll results come out)."
....
Possible insights from YouGov’s post-verdict snap poll
The national Daily Questions survey was conducted online Thursday among 3,040 adults. Per YouGov’s summary of the results, “Americans’ immediate reactions are polarized along party lines, with 86 percent of Democrats but just 15 percent of Republicans believing the former president is guilty of felony charges,” with independents “nearly twice as likely to think he’s guilty as to think he’s not.” But overall, 50 percent approved of the conviction.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents also said it was at least probable Trump has ever committed crimes, but almost as many didn’t think he will ever go to prison, regardless:

63% say he probably or definitely won’t go to prison, compared to 20% who say he probably or definitely will. Democrats are the most likely political grouping to expect Trump to go to prison, but even among them, 33% say he will be imprisoned and 54% say he won’t.
....
A Morning Consult poll finds majority approval of the verdict
The Morning Consult survey on Friday found that 54 percent of voters approved (“strongly” or “somewhat”) of the verdict and that Trump committed a crime. In addition, 15 percent of Republican voters, 8 percent of Trump supporters, and 49 percent of independents thought he should end his presidential bid. (Morning Consult also notes the GOP percentage is in line with the number of potential Republican primary voters who still supported Nikki Haley at the end of her campaign.)

Regarding the possible sentences for Trump, a solid majority of survey respondents — 69 percent — thought Trump should be fined as punishment. Another 49 percent thought probation would be best. About half opposed sentencing Trump to prison time, and 44 percent thought he should go to jail.

Seven in ten voters indicated they wanted the other Trump trials resolved before Election Day.
_____

Now, snap polls are not particularly instructive, but there are indications that the biggest effect will be with independent voters.

Of most interest to me is this: Trump has not increased his voter share. That share was not enough to win him the popular vote in either of his previous elections, and the swing-state voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan also have the specter of local prosecutions of 2020 election fraudsters.

And, of course, there is the issue of abortion. Arizona, Nevada,Montana (Jon Tester is running for reelection to the Senate), Missouri, among others, will have ballot initiatives on the ballot to protect abortion, and it has already affected some other States where one would not have expected so much support.

This election will be determined by turnout. When push comes to shove, I think Democrats and progressives will be inspired to turn out. Also, the Biden campaign has a better ground game and is not hampered by staggering criminal defense bills. While the Democrats are defending more Senate seats than Republicans, I think the wind is at those candidates' backs.

Yes, it’s been only about a week since Trump’s guilty verdicts. You do have to give it some time for the polls to catchup to that guilty verdict. Usually 2-3 weeks after a major event, happening takes place. I consider this a major event. But a foreseen one, not an unforeseen one. It’s the unforeseen events, happenings that makes the needle jump all over the place. This guilty verdict was expected by most, perhaps for the most part it had already been baked in. Much like I think abortion has been baked into the equation long before the SCOTUS overturned Roe. But this is me.

I’m not paying any attention to the pro and anti-Trumpers. They’re set in stone as to who they’ll vote for. I’m watching with an eagle eye those who don’t fall into the pro or anti-Trump columns, those who dislike and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden as the next president. Roughly 30% of the electorate. There hasn’t been enough data to get a handle on how the guilty verdicts has affected this latter group. There hasn’t been enough time that has passed for the guilty verdicts to settle in with this group. They’re not political junkies and they don’t pay much attention to national politics. But they will be your election deciders.

Here's your battleground/swing states. The guilty verdicts hasn’t been taken into account. This is pre-hush money standings.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

"Sloppy" Steve Bannon remanded to jail on July 1, 2024. It's about time! Dude was convicted two years ago!