You’re correct, I do continue to analyze this rematch as a normal election. It’s not, it’s unique in that this is the first election since 1892 that pitted a former president against a sitting president running for reelection. Unique in the fact both major party presidential candidates are viewed much more negatively, than positive, that both have favorable below 50% and unfavorable above 50%. Only the second time this has happened since 1956 when Gallup and Pew Research started keeping track of favorable/unfavorable ratings of presidential candidates. The last time 2016. Then as you state, there’s Trump which in the Trump era most historical standards and wisdoms are thrown out the window.
Historically, Cleveland a former president won over the sitting president in 1892. Trump defeated Clinton in 2016 in the only other election between two major party candidates seen much more negatively than positively. Below 50% favorably, above 50% unfavorably.
Yes, in what is probably the most important election in my lifetime, if not history about half of all Americans don’t seem to care who wins or loses. Is that apathy or the fact half of all Americans don’t like the choices presented to them. That don’t want neither Biden nor Trump running for the presidency nor neither one to become the next president. When the voters don’t like and don’t want neither candidate, they’re much less likely to vote which we seen in 2016 and are seeing in those planning on voting next November.
Trump is still disliked and unwanted today as he was back in 2016 and 2020. Going by unfavorable numbers. 60% unfavorable in 2016, 58% unfavorable in 2020, 55% unfavorable today. Trump’s opponent, Clinton 56% unfavorable in 2016, which Trump won in the electoral college, not the popular vote. Biden 46% unfavorable in 2020, which Trump lost by 7 million plus votes. Biden 56% unfavorable in 2024, results unknown. But the polls show a basic tie today with the MOE taken into consideration. Voter turnout for 2016 54%, voter turnout for 2020 62%, projected voter turnout for 2024, around 50%. Third party vote in 2016 6.0%, third party vote in 2020 1.7%, projected third party vote for 2024 above 10%, currently at 14.3%.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-steinMy question, is it apathy or that around half of all Americans don’t want to choose between two disliked and unwanted candidates? I’ll leave you with this, 48% of all Americans want a new president which doesn’t include the present and former president. It doesn't include both nomoinees of the two major parties. Perhaps the choice of candidates is providing the apathy. Something to think about. It’s has already been shown that more of Biden’s supporters or of those who prefer or will vote for Biden are mostly against Trump 52% than mostly for Biden, 45%. Trump supporters are the opposite, mostly for Trump 70%, mostly against Biden 28%.
