Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

It was a reference to what Trump would do if he lost the 2020. He led an insurrection, so yes, it can happen in America, and not only that but he is poised to repeat in 2024. You still seem to believe he is a normal candidate ... I don't know why ... all I can type is .... yes it CAN happen in America and it is happening as I type.

Trump is not the old time normal candidate of America's past. He represents the worst in American political thought, having it's seeds sown some 30 years ago by conservative Republican anarchists. Should Trump lose the vote, expect the most insidiously egregious attack on Democracy from Trump and his loyalists, at the local, state, and federal levels. And if you don't think it can happen in America ... well ...

Instead of just looking at this upcoming rematch from inside the anti-Trump cocoon, I step outside and take a good view of the entire electorate trying to figure out where things stand today and if possible, why. I’m as much anti-Trump as anyone else, but being anti-Trump isn’t going to change the reasons why we have an election coming which gives him a 50-50 shot at regaining the white house. That shouldn’t be but is. It’s reality. Why is this so? I get the feeling that few care. Perhaps they’re right, it seems there’s nothing at this point that could change the dynamics of this rematch or who the candidates are.

A lot has changed since 2020. Trump hasn’t become more popular; he’s still disliked and unwanted by around 55% of all Americans. But Biden has dropped to the level of Trump in the dislike and unwanted column. According to Gallup, independents, the non-affiliated, the less to non-partisan group of voters make up 41% of the electorate today. They’ve went from viewing Biden positively, viewing Trump negatively as their vote for Biden in 2020 proves 54-41. To viewing both Biden and Trump negatively today. Hence you have the basic tie between Biden and Trump. You have a third of independents refusing to choose between Biden and Trump, they dislike both, they don’t want neither one. They’re falling into the vote third party, will not vote, undecided columns. They made their choice in 2020 for Biden, this year they’re not making any choice.

It's not that I disagree with you. I don’t. It’s the study of these swing voters, the non-affiliates, the less to non-partisans that has always grabbed my interest. For these voters, Trump was alone in the doghouse in 2020, 2024, Biden has joined Trump in the doghouse. Which is impossible for most anti-Trumpers and democrats to understand or even acknowledge. Trump hasn’t gained any support from swing voters, he’s lost some, down from 41% to 37% today. But Biden has lost the support of almost 20 points worth, down from 54% to 35%. Which really put the emphasis on the dislike and unwantedness these swing voters have, feel for both major party candidates. I repeat, the democrats have chosen the wrong candidate to ensure Trump’s defeat. That almost any other democratic candidate than Biden in my opinion would be wiping the floor with Trump. But the DNC and Democratic Party leadership made sure, used all their powers to ensure Biden wouldn’t be challenged in the Democratic Primaries. You have this prior to the primaries - Poll: Two-thirds of Democrat-leaning voters don't want Biden as 2024 nominee

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/poll-biden-2024-second-term-democrat-voters-cnn

I agree with you, but this won’t stop me studying swing voters. They’re the election deciders. Not neither major party’s base. Not the pro or anti-Trumpers either, but those who dislike and don’t want neither Biden nor Trump to become the next president, how they vote, if they do vote will decide this election.

Biden is starting to go on the offensive (finally). Have no idea if it will change things but I hope so. At least he is out there showing that he can speak right out loud, is not sick or too old to speak, etc. This is all good as the Republicans have been saying all sorts of things about him - too old, can't speak, can't stand up, trips all the time, half dead, etc. you know, any lie they can think of. Its very strange. We all know that Trump lies, bigtime. Now I suspect we also know that the Entire Republican (Trump) party also lies. The one that gets me is that he is the worst president we have ever had. The simple fact is that, so far, I believe he is going to go down as one of the best presidents we have had and I don't see that changing.

I think we should all remember that after trump was president he also was considered the WORST president in the history of the United States! I often wonder why the Dems, when they are talking don't point that one out every time they get a chance!! The only reason I can think of is that the Dems just don't want to say mean things. I continue to wonder if they really want to win or not!

I really don’t see the dynamics of this rematch changing. It’s been, as far as the polling goes within the MOE since November 2022, the midterms between Trump and Biden. There’s been a consensus among most Americans then and now, that they didn’t and still don’t want neither one as the next president. I don’t think piling on more negatives about Trump is going to help Biden, Trump being the worst president or not. I would say most Americans are used to Trump’s lies, his rotten character, his legal problems, his childish antics, his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactics, his thirst for revenge and a million other very true negatives. I would have sworn that when the federal indictments came down, that would be the end of Trump. They weren’t. Then Trump sitting at the defendant’s table during the New York Fraud case and E.J. Carroll’s case would send him tumbling. They didn’t. The same with this Hush Money case, a criminal case. None of that changed anything. If these things didn’t affect the dynamics of this race, harping on how bad a president Trump was isn’t going to have an effect either. Most Americans know Trump is a scumbag.

Going back through old polls, you had the same basic breakdown back in 2022 that we have now. Roughly 35% die hard Trumpers, 35% anti-Trumpers and pro-Biden, 30% who don’t want nothing to do with either. There was a time when character mattered.

Look at a 15 Nov 2022 poll, 55% of all Americans back then didn’t want Biden to run again, 57% didn’t want Trump to run again either. Question 34 and 35.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/gebmjsbpbw/econTabReport.pdf

Compare that to a 30 Apr 2024 poll, 59% don’t want Biden to run again even though he’s the defacto Democratic nominee. 52% don’t want Trump to run again either even though he will be the GOP nominee. Questions 13 and 14. Not much has changed that isn’t within the MOE.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_0NJUiMQ.pdf

This isn’t 2020, compare voter enthusiasm for voting for president, 2020 76% were either extremely enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about voting for the president. Only 12% not too or not at all enthusiastic. Results a very high voter turnout of 62%. You have to go back to 1960 for a higher voter turnout. 62.8%. Question 22.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nzc8dt85gn/econTabReport.pdf

Today. 43% are either extremely enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about voting for president, 42% not too or not at all enthusiastic about voting for president. Question 18

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_Agwhapd.pdf

Which leads me to believe we’ll have a very low voter turnout. Maybe even below 50% which has happened only once since 1924, in 1996 at 49.0%. I’ve talked about the 23 million new voters, those who didn’t vote in 2016 but did in 2020. Biden won those new voters 68-30 over Trump. What if those new voters decide to stay home and not vote in 2024 as they didn’t vote in 2016. Which seems very plausible. They disliked Trump in 2020 but not Biden, they wanted Trump gone. Today they dislike both, they don’t want neither Biden nor Trump this time around. It’s a possibility as everything dealing with this rematch has been static since November 2022.

You continue to analyze as if Trump were the normal candidate of yesteryear. He is not. Please begin to think outside that box, and analyze accordingly. I have been typing since the beginning none of the indictments nor will any convictions change the mind of MAGA. Trump is not just a candidate. He is the Savior of America sent by God. He is the media for which they will display their bigotry. Why would you think or believe almost all elected Republicans still support him? Because Trump is the vehicle and voice of MAGA. If Gov DeSantis had the balls he would have preemptively began a campaign of overtly using the language of bigotry, and may have had a following. MAGA is looking for a God-like figure to save them from their own bigotry and ignorance.


Ergo I will conclude Trump may win outright.

Imagine a coup rendered by voter apathy. And you continue to believe it can't happen in America. In real time you are watching Democracy swirling around the toilet drain.

You’re correct, I do continue to analyze this rematch as a normal election. It’s not, it’s unique in that this is the first election since 1892 that pitted a former president against a sitting president running for reelection. Unique in the fact both major party presidential candidates are viewed much more negatively, than positive, that both have favorable below 50% and unfavorable above 50%. Only the second time this has happened since 1956 when Gallup and Pew Research started keeping track of favorable/unfavorable ratings of presidential candidates. The last time 2016. Then as you state, there’s Trump which in the Trump era most historical standards and wisdoms are thrown out the window.

Historically, Cleveland a former president won over the sitting president in 1892. Trump defeated Clinton in 2016 in the only other election between two major party candidates seen much more negatively than positively. Below 50% favorably, above 50% unfavorably.

Yes, in what is probably the most important election in my lifetime, if not history about half of all Americans don’t seem to care who wins or loses. Is that apathy or the fact half of all Americans don’t like the choices presented to them. That don’t want neither Biden nor Trump running for the presidency nor neither one to become the next president. When the voters don’t like and don’t want neither candidate, they’re much less likely to vote which we seen in 2016 and are seeing in those planning on voting next November.

Trump is still disliked and unwanted today as he was back in 2016 and 2020. Going by unfavorable numbers. 60% unfavorable in 2016, 58% unfavorable in 2020, 55% unfavorable today. Trump’s opponent, Clinton 56% unfavorable in 2016, which Trump won in the electoral college, not the popular vote. Biden 46% unfavorable in 2020, which Trump lost by 7 million plus votes. Biden 56% unfavorable in 2024, results unknown. But the polls show a basic tie today with the MOE taken into consideration. Voter turnout for 2016 54%, voter turnout for 2020 62%, projected voter turnout for 2024, around 50%. Third party vote in 2016 6.0%, third party vote in 2020 1.7%, projected third party vote for 2024 above 10%, currently at 14.3%.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

My question, is it apathy or that around half of all Americans don’t want to choose between two disliked and unwanted candidates? I’ll leave you with this, 48% of all Americans want a new president which doesn’t include the present and former president. It doesn't include both nomoinees of the two major parties. Perhaps the choice of candidates is providing the apathy. Something to think about. It’s has already been shown that more of Biden’s supporters or of those who prefer or will vote for Biden are mostly against Trump 52% than mostly for Biden, 45%. Trump supporters are the opposite, mostly for Trump 70%, mostly against Biden 28%.

Strange you misunderstood me.

You typed you recognize it is not a normal election and then immediately analyze with historical perspectives. That is not what I was saying. This isn't about any historically unique characteristic such as favorability ratings, or incumbent non-incumbent races. This is totally about one person, Trump, and how he represents everything which is not Democratic in America. At no time in our history has such a person run for President. That is what makes this election NOT historical in any respect.

Thus any political analysis has to be done with a different mindset. No longer are the historical stats relevant. When a large number of criminal indictments, convictions for fraud and sexual misconduct, etc don't dissuade the electorate, anew set of criteria are necessary to understand what the polls mean. Check the policy initiatives from Project 2025. These are the Christian Nationalist policies of fascism. At no time in our history has such extremist views been so prevalent.

I don't make any claims as to what the criteria should be to understand the new paradigm, I only know the old historical criteria are not valid.




Can't answer it, because I don't know.

What I do know is this is only the second time in our history when an election has consequences which assail the Foundations of Democracy. Perhaps for most folks, it doesn't matter who is in office. They keep their heads down and talk of the weather. For others it is the intangible sense of relief one has when one knows government has some restrictions to one's personal freedom. For me it has a greater meaning.

Apathy or they don't like the choices, it doesn't matter. What does matter is whether Democracy will survive.

As the French say ... Vive la République .... and as Ben Franklin said, It is a Republic if they can keep it

My God after all this time it has come to a charlatan bringing it all down ... perhaps we deserve it

They'll sure care enough if Trump wins, just like another bunch of whiny asshats in a certain European country began to care back in the 1930's.

rporter - I look at how all Americans are viewing this election, that’s the only way to get an in the ballpark gauge on what may be the final results. We’re, I, am looking at these numbers a long way from the election itself. Lots of time for these numbers and outlook to change. All it takes is one unforeseen major event. But without that, the numbers have been steady with the normal few points up or down over the last year.

Among republicans and democrats, avid pro and anti-Trumpers, you’re correct. This election is much more about Trump than Biden. Biden gets overlooked in their feeling’s views toward this rematch. It boils down to most republicans being all for Trump with a few being against Biden, these guys want Trump elected. A majority of democrats being against Trump with a minority being for Biden. They want Trump defeated; Biden just happens to be Trump’s opponent. The driving force is Trump, one way or the other.

Independents, swing voters are different. A good majority of independents are against both. Their feelings, their view of Biden and his presidency may be playing a larger role than their view of Trump in their decision on who to vote for or not vote at all or perhaps vote third party. The avidness of being either pro or anti-Trump isn’t there among this group. There aren’t the hard, set in stone feelings about Trump one way or the other. Generally speaking, they don’t want Trump due to his rotten character, his lies, his legal problems, Trump being an all-around bad guy. They don’t want Biden due to them perceiving he’s done a very poor job as president; 60% of independents or more disapprove of the overall job performance of Biden and his handling of most issues, his age and the fear Biden won’t survive another four years and worries about Biden’s mental fitness. The big difference, most independents dislike Trump the person, they like Biden as a person, the individual. Most look back on the Trump presidency feeling they were better off under Trump than under Biden today. Their personal situation was better, their standard of living better, the cost of goods and services cheaper and more within their means. But they still don’t like Trump the man.

They are totally conflicted today as to which way to go if they go at all. Vote for someone they dislike as a person, but think he did a better job as president when it comes to their own personal situation. Or vote for someone they like as a person but think he has done a poor job as president and probably is too old to carry on. For swing voters, this election is as much about Biden as it is about Trump. This is something democrats, the anti-Trumpers can’t understand. Because they have their hard, set in stone feelings and views of Trump, they expect everyone else to have the same feelings and views. They view this upcoming rematch very differently than either the pro-Trump side or the anti-Trump side. Do they realize what is at stake, long term, the pitfalls if Trump wins? Probably not? But they do know their own personal situation today vs. 4 years ago. For many swing voters, this is all the counts.

Yes yes I know!!!! ... You look at this election as if it were the 1980 election with all the same historical perspectives of someone who doesn't realize we are not in the same dimension as 1980. We are in the alternate universe of Trump world where up is down and your polling analysis reflects the real universe.

So I remember 2020, when you typed Trump would quietly leave the WH as any president who respects the Constitution would, and I warned you repeatedly that would not be the case. Trump had no intention of leaving the WH and had his rationally minded staff not forced him to leave, he would have remained past the Biden inauguration. And your mouth was agape and your eyes wide open as you type "could not happen in America". Once again it is happening and once again you are thinking 1980.

You need proof? Believe him or not but M Cohen is saying Republicans have the process in motion NOW! Spkr Johnson was asked if he would object to the 2024 if they lost and his answer was yes. Now he is in charge of the House. He can not seat the new legislature ... because it was illegally elected .... he can procedurally accept all objections and allow only alternate electors to ensure Trump wins. And yet your response is you know and understand polling.

Once again I am sounding the clarion ... warning of the danger ahead ... and once again all I hear from you is can't happen in America. Polling will not matter, especially if Biden ever has better polling numbers. The FIX is in.

Acquiesce now ... Trump be be anointed in 2025.