rporter -I think you have me confused with Greger as to your quotes. As for the polling dynamics and the breakdown via party to include independents, that hasn’t changed since 1980. The candidates have, the importance of different issues have, but in 1980 both major parties’ strength was about 75% whereas today those who identify with both major parties have fallen below 60%. Independents play a much larger role today than in 1980 because there’re a heck of a lot more of them than in the past.
Today, independents are breaking for Trump 38-34 over Biden hence Trump leading in the polls by a couple of points. Biden won independents 54-41 over Trump in 2020. What this tells me is after 4 years of the Biden presidency, independents have really soured on Biden. Although they haven’t went over to Trump, he’s dropped also. All of this falls back into the category of most independents not wanting neither Trump nor Biden as their next president. One knows exactly how republicans and democrats will vote. That’s approximately 58% of the electorate to use Gallup’s figures. How independents break, still unknown. But I’d use 2016 as an example. That year independents like this year disliked and didn’t want neither major party candidate as their next president. They ended up voting for Trump 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party. There were a lot of independents staying home, not voting as independents made up just 26% of those who actually voted. In 2020 many more independents went to the polls, they made up 30% of those who voted, they also switched to Biden, 54-41 over Trump. A swing of 17 points. Third party independent voters dropped from 12% down to 5%.
Independents still dislike and don’t want Trump the same as they didn’t in 2020. But this year, they also dislike and don’t want Biden whereas in 2020, they did want Biden to beat the heck out of Trump. That’s a difference democrat’s refuse to acknowledge. The difference is I, as a swing voter who doesn’t want Trump back in the white house, who would vote for Atilla the Hun before Trump. I recognize the huge difference between 2020 and 2024. I don’t turn a blind eye to that difference. I’ll point the difference out. Maybe that’s a pox on me. But believe me, the situation today isn’t all roses. Biden not being Trump was enough for a good-sized win in 2020. Biden not being Trump isn’t enough this year.
