Short version. It’s 50-50. The reason is many of those who stayed home in 2016 but came out to vote in 2020 going for Biden by a 68-30 margin which equates to most of the 7 plus million votes Biden won the election by. A good many according to the polls are planning on staying home rather than choose between two disliked and unwanted candidates. When one dislikes and doesn’t want neither major party candidate, there’s little reason to go vote. Hence you have Trump leading Biden by a couple of points today.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

In 2020 these new voters wanted Trump gone, they disliked him, but liked Biden. Biden was an acceptable alternative to Trump. In 2024, Biden is now president, not Trump. Trump has become the alternative to Biden. They’ve changed places. But Trump isn’t an acceptable alternative to Biden this year as Biden was an acceptable alternative to Trump in 2020.

Things look bleak for Biden today. He trails in every battleground, swing state.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

The good news is these swing voters, new voters who didn’t vote in 2016, but did in 2020, haven’t gone over to Trump. The bad news is they’ve left Biden by indicating they’re going to stay home. Making Trump the benefactor of addition by subtraction. It’s early though. The campaign season hasn’t started in earnest. Somehow these new voters in 2020 who didn’t vote in 2016 must be reenergized to go back to the polls this year to vote for Biden. How Biden can accomplish that, I don’t know. That is the big question, how to get folks back to the polls when they don’t want neither major party candidate.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.