Rick, A lot of folks aren’t planning on voting this year or planning on voting third party against both Trump and Biden. On both sides and especially those of the independent, swing voter persuasion. Young voters 18-29 are currently polling Biden by a 48-27 margin. Biden won this group 60-36 in 2020. Even with less young ones voting, the drop is 12 and 11 points from both Biden and Trump. Those young ones planning on not voting isn’t hurting either one. At least as of today. It’s independents and swing voters where Biden has his problem. Swing voters are currently 38-34 Trump over Biden. In 2020 Biden won this group 54-41 over Trump. It’s this group I check on daily. Biden doesn’t have a problem with any other group, just independents. Most independents which dislike both major party candidate, have an unfavorable view of both. 27% favorable Biden, not Trump, 31% favorable Trump, not Biden, 37% unfavorable view of both.
Young voters favor the Palestinians over the Israelis by a 32-13 margin. But independents favor the Israelis by a 34-16 margin. The stoppage of arms shipments to Israel has hurt Biden among swing voters. Too little, too late for young voters. The rest to add up to 100% are not sure, hadn’t heard enough or don’t favor either side. But to most Americans, the Israeli/Hamas war isn’t of interest. Inflation, rising prices, immigration remain the most important issues in deciding who to vote for and by a wide margin over every other issue.
I’m the opposite of you, I firmly believe almost any other democrat, especially a younger, fresher face, not another old foggie like Sanders or Warren would be trouncing Trump instead of trailing by a point or two today. I’m talking candidates like Tammy Duckworth, Andy Beshear, Laura Kelly etc. my opinion on this is from me studying independents, swing voters, the election deciders.
