Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 A question

The money race, Biden has raised 218 million so far to Trump’s 207 million rounded off.

https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race

Young folks aren’t a problem for Biden. It’s independents that he’s lost. In 2020 Biden won independents 54-41 over Trump. Today, Biden trails Trump among independents 28-34 with the rest either stating they’ll vote third party against both, won’t vote at all due to disliking and not wanting either one or undecided. Notice the lost in support, Trump dropping from 41% down to 34% while Biden has really plunged from 54 down to 28. Although with all adults, Trump only leads by 1, 42-41. Even there, both major party candidates have dropped, Biden by 10 points from 2020, Trump by 5 points.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_nURRSN3.pdf

I’d say if one isn’t either avid pro-Trump or avid-anti-Trump, they don’t care who wins or loses between these two. If I were giving campaign advice to Biden, I’d tell him to forget about the young vote. They’ll either turnout and vote for him or stay home. They aren’t going to switch to Trump. With independents, Biden needs to get on the plus side with them. It doesn’t matter how many vote third party or stay home this year. It matters being on the plus side with independents. Staying on the minus side as Biden is now, simply means he’ll lose. Like it or not, independents are the election deciders. Biden won independents in 2020, he won the presidency, Clinton lost independents in 2016, she lost the presidency. Obama won independents twice, he won twice as did G.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. You can take this all the way back to 1960. Whichever candidate won the independent vote, that candidate won the presidency.

Again, I just think that Biden has to actually start to compete with Trump. The problem is that the media takes care of Trump for free. I see him almost every night. Biden, however, is not seen that often and, if he is to win, he has to at least try! It certainly can't hurt. Right now he is kinda the Democratic Phantom Presidential Candidate. They keep saying that they have a truly great organization, they are going to do this and that, yet NOTHING seems to happen.

I know, he has actually been out to specific places and that's ok but Trump is out EVERYPLACE. Why makes no difference, where or why, he is getting all the attention and that is, exactly, what he wants. I just wish that Biden made some kind of effort. I know, he is doing stuff, but that has nothing to do with his face appearing while he is doing it - nation wide.

Oh well, we are going to see in not too many months. If I was religious I would be in church every day but ....... I am going to cut back on my whining. My wife just wants to to "SHUT UP!". I suspect she has a point! She also tells me she has heard it all before. I suspect she is right.

Anyway.......

I enjoy your posts jgw. I do get way too analytical. The phantom candidate happened in 2016 also. Trump made 116 campaign visits, stops, rallies, etc. to Clinton’s 71. That 71 looks larger than it was as it included fund raisers in deep blue California and New York. Clinton out raised and out spent Trump 1,191 billion to 646.8 million. But Trump’s outrageousness got him a ton of free media attention. Bumping Clinton to the back page. I get your point on Biden, perhaps he doesn’t like the limelight. I don’t know. Biden has the bully pulpit; he should start using it. He does seem to shy away from the cameras.

The anti-Trumpers are energized and will vote for Biden. But they only make up approximately 35% of the electorate. Right around the same percentage of those who are pro-Trump. Biden needs more than just 35% just as Trump does. The problem is the remaining 30% disliked both Trump and Biden, don’t want neither one as their next president. Gaining a good portion of those isn’t going to be easy. Biden needs to give them a good, valid reason to vote for him. Something positive. More than Biden isn’t Trump. What Biden can do or what that reason Biden can give, I’m clueless. Analytics can take you just so far, then you have to rely on the eye test. What message will resonate?

I’d say you’re correct on more face time, more camera time. That can’t hurt.

Simply and bluntly put, that's the news media business putting not just their thumb on the scale, but rather, one leg and their ENTIRE ASS.
They gave Donald Trump almost two BILLION dollars in free publicity, a man who insists to this day that he is worth ten billion.

Tell me how that gets remedied aside from all other candidates engaging in consecutive stabs aimed at ever increasing damage to the entire idea of a republic with any shred of a democratic process. How does one outdo a person who uses tactics like Trump's.

This looks and feels like one third of the electorate is suddenly (as in, the last ten years) stricken with an epidemic of Oppositional Defiant Disorder, an adult form of mental illness listed in the DSM as being common to children of violent upbringing.

Madison Cawthorn gave a speech where he encouraged mothers "to raise male children who are monsters".
Looks like we succeeded in that almost a generation ago.

Cawthorn: Monsters and lions, not wimps and sheep

Also Bloodshed is inevitable... "if our elections continue to be rigged."

Should Joe Biden make even more outrageous statements? Should he employ satanists and serial killers?

Yes Jeffrey, Trump was and still is like that old showman who believes that there isn’t no such thing as bad publicity. No publicity is bad. Trump hogged all the publicity, news in 2016 and he’s doing the same this year. Abet most of the publicity Trump receives is bad, but that doesn’t seem to matter. As jgw pointed out, you never hear anything about Biden.

I not sure if it’s oppositionitis or disorder. It may be a case of not liking the job a president is doing, thus wanting to replace him. Every sitting president who ran for reelection since 1948 with a job approval of below 50%, all lost. Ford in 1976, 45%, Carter in 1980, 37%, G.H.W. Bush in 1992, 43%, Trump in 2020, 43%. Biden is currently at 40% overall job approval. His numbers would probably doom Biden to a huge defeat if his opponent wasn’t Trump. They need each other if either one is to win. Against another opponent not named Biden or Trump, either one would stand little chance. Yet, this fact is totally lost on both major parties.

When a sitting president runs for reelection, that election is a referendum on the sitting president. Not the challenger. Although this year with a sitting president vs. a former president, it’s a referendum on both. But more so on Biden since he’s the sitting president, not Trump.

My response was not an indictment of Trump, it was an indictment of a willing and compliant media industry who slurped up all the gravy that came in response to their two billion dollar investment.

No news network serves "the public interest" if they are bestowing gifts that the other candidate does not receive in equal measure.
Trump did not "hog" anything, it was a gift to him.
Part of the reason you're not sure is because you appear to ignore the effect lopsided media attention has on approval and disapproval ratings.
They call the news media "kingmakers" in any other election except the last one where they really actually WERE kingmakers.

The media does give Trump a lot of exposure. As far as I am concerned I have always been convinced that they actually gave us Trump! That exposure, however, is not always good or bad it just is. I just think that the rich Democratic party should be able to put together some professional politician sellers that can get Biden on the TV every freaking night! All they have to do is to think of a reason for Biden to go on the TV and then tell him to do exactly that. Biden is the president of the United states! I expect that would not be all that hard to do and, given that we are talking about professional political sellers they must be capable of figuring it all out.

Biden, I would think, can figure out that this would be a GOOD thing for him to do. Instead he is constantly doing stuff that makes it into the papers and not the TV. I also think that if he wanted to be on TV then he needs to let media know that he is something to say - EVERY FREAKING NIGHT! If the sellers are doing their jobs TV will show the results. I don't think they give a damn, they just want to show stuff that audience appreciates, good or bad, and the Dems should be able to do that!

Its a simple case of getting the Democrat party off their overpaid butts and doing their damned jobs! This is, of course, based on my belief that the Democrats have such and, if not, somebody there knows it and can fix it.

Oh, one last. I have sent them stuff. The reply is, always, that I should send them money. I really hope I am right on the above. They gotta have somebody with a brain!

The news media are in the news business to make money. Most are owed by corporations. Sensational news draws viewers, the more viewership, the more money the corporations can charge for their commercials, the more money the corporations make. News as a public service probably died with Walter Cronkite. Trump’s outrageousness was sensational news, a means to draw in viewers. Clinton and Biden were/are boring. Trump on the other hand had people tuning in to see what outrageousness he'd do or say next. Like it or not, news like any other program is all about ratings.

I’d say Trump was a gift to the media which the media took full advantage of. Not the other way around. Back in Cronkite’s day, the 30 minutes of national news with the 3 over the air networks was expected to lose money. But was done as a public service. Then 60 minutes hit, followed by CNN, Fox and MSNBC. Networks who are in the news business for one thing only, to cash in. Public service be damned. They will lead and stay with whatever they think will attract viewership.

The democrats do, James Carville for one. But the democrats don’t want to hear what he has to say. Old Snake Eyes takes them out of their comfort zone. Don’t like old snake eyes, try Jim Messina. Who in the world is Julie Chávez Rodríguez? Outside of being Biden’s campaign manager who as far as I’m concerned hasn't done a darn thing so far.

Biden is constantly making statements about this and that that he is doing or has done. Then he puts out that statement to the news on paper. How about, instead, notifying the TV folks that he has a statement to make and, I suspect, they would be there, with their TV's asking questions and biden could have at it. If he doesn't want to do that then let some Democratic seller do it.

TV just doesn't care and they will show anything that actually has something to say. I remain convinced that they have people who can do that on a regular basis but, instead, the Dems release papers or one sentence statements and then just go away. Nobody gets a shot at them. Democrats, obviously, do not want to be exposed?

Oh well........... Too much to ask I guess.