Stats can be boring. But they energize me. MAGA Republicans probably make up 25% of the electorate. Add in MAGA independents, you up to around 35%. These 35% are going to vote Trump no matter what. The anti-Trump democrats and anti-Trump independents probably make up about the same percentage of the electorate, 35%. The battle is over the remaining 30%. That’s not right either. Over half of the remaining 30% are stating today that they’ll either vote third party or not vote at all because they don’t like both major party’s choices. They don’t want Trump to regain the white house, they don’t want Biden reelected. One could say they’re both anti-Trump and anti-Biden at the same time. When it comes solely to Trump vs. Biden, we need to redo the math and eliminate that approximately 20% who state they won’t vote or vote third party. We end up with roughly 45-45 tie among those who made their choice between Trump and Biden. So, the battle is now for the 10% undecided in the two-candidate race between Trump and Biden.
That comes out to 10-15 million voters who’ll decide this November’s rematch. All other voters seem set in stone as to their choice. It’s Impossible to even get a hint as to how this last 10%, these 10-15 million voters will break. All the numbers and stats don’t give me a clue. Where these voters are may mean everything. If they’re in one of the 8 battleground or swing states, the importance of them can’t be overstated. If they’re in any of the 42 solid states that will go for either Trump or Biden, they’re meaningless. Here 7 of the 8 battleground states as of today.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-statesMinnesota is the final battle ground state.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/minnesota/trump-vs-biden
