I’m going by Biden’s numbers. His very low numbers would have doomed Biden to a landslide loss against almost any other republican than Trump. Any sitting president with a job approval of below 50% has lost his reelection bid. Ford at 45% lost to Carter in 1976. Jimmy at 39% lost to Reagan in 1980, G.H.W. Bush at 43% lost to Bill Clinton in 1992 and Trump at 42% lost to Biden in 2020. Be grateful if you’re a Biden supporter, that you want Biden to win because he’s Joe Biden and not just anti-Trump that it’s Trump Biden is running against. Half of all America don’t want this rematch. They want someone other than either Biden or Trump. Poll after poll has showed this.
59% of all Americans don’t or didn’t want Biden to run for reelection. 57% don’t and didn’t want Trump to run again. You have two very unpopular, unwanted, disliked major party candidates. 55% of all Americans have a negative or unfavorable view of Biden, 54% the same negative/unfavorable view of Trump.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leadersIt’s this negative view of both major party candidates that makes this election not normal. Only once before had we an election where both major party candidates were viewed under 50% favorably and over 50% unfavorably. 2016 between Trump and Clinton. The result was a low voter turnout 54% and a high third-party vote, 6%. Expect the same this year as voter enthusiasm is even lower this year to vote for president than it was in 2016. By contrast in 2020 with high voter enthusiasm, voter turnout was 62% using VAP with only 1.7% third party vote.